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| | |-+  Was this a realistic Romney victory scenario in 2012
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Author Topic: Was this a realistic Romney victory scenario in 2012  (Read 562 times)
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« on: September 04, 2017, 06:00:49 pm »
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Romney 273
Obama 265
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2017, 07:58:49 pm »
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Romney 273
Obama 265

Remove Nevada (and possibly NH), and add Ohio.
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2017, 08:57:18 pm »
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Romney 273
Obama 265

Remove Nevada (and possibly NH), and add Ohio.

Ya I don't see any realistic scenario for Romney to have won in 2012 without Ohio.
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2017, 09:03:42 pm »
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The closest a Republican has ever come to winning without Ohio is probably 1916 when Wilson won the tipping point state by about 0.4% while he won Ohio by about 7.7%.

Edit: fixed inaccurate numbers
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2017, 09:22:07 pm »
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Romney 273
Obama 265

Remove Nevada (and possibly NH), and add Ohio.

Ya I don't see any realistic scenario for Romney to have won in 2012 without Ohio.

Iowa may be hard to win for GOP (in 2012 ) without Ohio , but I think this was the only way Mitt could win without Ohio.
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2017, 10:26:04 pm »
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Probably not.  If he's doing well enough in the national PV to flip VA and CO, then OH has certainly flipped as well.

I can't envision the scenario where he's able to somehow flip those two but not OH.
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2017, 11:13:00 pm »
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Probably not.  If he's doing well enough in the national PV to flip VA and CO, then OH has certainly flipped as well.

I can't envision the scenario where he's able to somehow flip those two but not OH.



I believe when Romney led in the national polls he was still losing electorally because of Ohio . Also John King said that after Indiana , North Carolina and Flordia, Virginia and Colorado was most likely to flip.

Though John King also said that Iowa and Nevada would be very hard to win without Ohio
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« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2017, 09:42:53 am »
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Okay, Trump obviously brought out a significant number of voters who didn't vote Republican in the past and that made a difference in a state like Michigan ... but it simply padded his margins in Ohio.  ANY Republican victory for the White House wins Ohio, and it could have been done with a small fraction of the "Obama-Trump voters" that were needed to flip Michigan and Pennsylvania.
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2017, 10:56:46 am »
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Romney only lost Ohio by 3 in the end. He lost CO, PA, IA and NH all by 5.4-6%. Ohio should be Republican on any Romney 2012 victory map should
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« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2017, 06:49:33 pm »
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Something like this. Like mentioned, a Romney win in 2012 will 9-10 times have to come through Ohio and would be very unlikely for it not to happen. Romney in this is able to Swing 0.89% or more of the vote from Obama to Romney (Probably from increased Rural margins/turnout, Better Republican margin/turnout in regions like the southwest of the state), 2.99% or more in Ohio to barely win there as it was the third closest state, and in a little more difficulty win both 3.88% and more and 5.38% and more in the States of Virginia and Colorado which would be very close. This can be done through a variety of ways however if he wins both he is elected president which of course did not happen. Nevada and Pennsylvania would be very close in this along with Iowa and New Hampshire.
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2017, 05:54:57 pm »
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I don't think VA and CO were winnable for Romney in 2012. His very narrow path to victory would have been FL+OH+WI+IA, and that would have made it a 269-269 tie. The next state to flip would have been PA.
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