WA-8: Reichert retiring

[KingSweden]

As far as Republicans who could run for this seat: State Sen. Joe Fain, State Rep. Paul Graves, State Rep. Drew Stokesbary, King County Councilman Reagan Dunn, and State Rep. Jay Rodne.


Of those I'd think Dunn would be the strongest (Pretty sure he won this district when he ran for AG) and Rodne the weakest (Massive Islamaphobe).

Fain is a future Senate GOP leader if he doesn't lose next year, though I suspect he has his eye on higher office. So does Dunn, though, and his mom represented the 8th before Reichert so I have a feeling he's the GOP's top choice here

[KingSweden]

Anyways - BIG news. I'd say this is Lean D. Curious if Mullet takes the leap...

[KingSweden]

It's a possibility. I doubt it, though.

Just need Darcy Burner to stay away...

[KingSweden]

Anyways - BIG news. I'd say this is Lean D. Curious if Mullet takes the leap...

Well, there is a risk of democrats not qualifying for the run off though,...

If any big names wander in, I think some Dem candidates take a long look at the Leg races instead. Rodne is no longer a good fit in this rapidly-growing district and Graves is a first-termer who won because Darcy Burner was his opponent

[KingSweden]

I never knew that there was a person whose worst enemy was Christine Gregoire

There is nobody duller to have as an arch nemesis than Chris Gregoire

I've actually met Rossi's daughter (and Rob McKenna's!). Both very nice for being daughters of wealthy GOP bigwigs.

Is it just me or does Dino Rossi look kinda like Bob Costas?

[KingSweden]

Anyways, according to DRA, Rossi won this district 55-45 during his 2010 Senate run, so if he runs I imagine he wins.

That was in a 4% loss for him statewide. Hardly typical for a Congressional race in Washington. Hard to imagine the 2018 results being that favorable for Republicans. Rossi would have a chance, but no one should be saying that he will definitely win.

Oh, and as far as the Washington gubernatorial race goes, some wise American men were fond of telling me last year "you lost, get over it." I think that may apply here.

You're side lost by 70,000 votes Dino lost by 100ish votes after 3 counts.

This is amazing.

[KingSweden]

A glance at the WA general thread would reveal that there is indeed a good D bench.
Mallot has 4 young daughters, so I see why he looks to be out.

Pat Sullivan would a good candidate. Hurst as well, but isn't he in 70s?

Hurst is born 1954. Sullivan is eight years younger

Both would be great, though I doubt the grassroots would get excited about Hurst

[KingSweden]

Per DKE, Mallot's not running, but State House Majority Leader Pat Sullivan and a ex-state representative Chris Hurst are both considering and seem like they could be strong candidates (especially Hurst).

The fact that both of these folks live in this district pretty much debunk the idea that the Democrats have a weak bench here.

It's all relatively. Among Republicans much greater number of names were mentioned. It's not TX-13, so Democrats have some bench, simply not that big...

The State House Majority Leader sounds like a big deal.

Sullivan is connected, but anonymous. Frank Chopp (the Speaker) has been around forever and casts a long shadow (think Mike Madigan or Shelly Silver, only not corrupt)

[KingSweden]

^ IIRC - Hurst is very moderate. Will "activists" support him?

WA-08 isn't really 'activist' territory.

Good that such territories still exist...

Seattle has a pretty strong activist streak, but this district is more low-key suburban in nature.

[KingSweden]

After noticing on politics1.com that the only Democrat in the race who held an elected position was no longer mentioned (Tola Marts an Issaquah City Councillor) I wanted to see if and why he had dropped out.  (He mentioned he wasn't very successful in fundraising, but an earlier article written about him also wrote that even while running he seemed to be much more interested in his day job as a medical researcher.)

I thought this was a decent article on the remaining candidates, though there is a bit of hypocrisy in the article, I think, for being rather snarky while complaining that one of the candidates is 'condescending.'

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/10/02/25447633/democratic-candidates-for-washingtons-8th-district-are-beginning-to-distinguish-themselves

"The Stranger" has this weird habit of going 90% of the way there on really solid political coverage on local issues before tripping over their feet by getting super smug/snarky/annoying. They've got a super team of local beat reporters/coverage on WA politics, just wish that they didn't write like a bunch of holier-than-thou Seattle hipsters. Then again, I'm not their target demo.

Rittereiser seems the clear choice to me. Being able to speak to both halves of the district will offset Rossi's strength in the one part where D's would otherwise need to run up massive numbers

[KingSweden]

Agree with Ritterseiser probably being the strongest, though I like Das.

Also the Stranger employs some very good writers (Heidi Groover) and some very annoying d**kheads (Dan Savage)

Savage has coasted on making fun of Rick Santorum a decade ago for a loooong time

Though I do credit him for being a major voice in the marriage equality debate in WA in 2012. Crazy how fast that issue died down in just a half decade

[KingSweden]

Agree with Ritterseiser probably being the strongest, though I like Das.

Also the Stranger employs some very good writers (Heidi Groover) and some very annoying d**kheads (Dan Savage)

Savage has coasted on making fun of Rick Santorum a decade ago for a loooong time

Though I do credit him for being a major voice in the marriage equality debate in WA in 2012. Crazy how fast that issue died down in just a half decade

Also on housing. http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/05/22/25158186/doing-something-real-about-gentrification-and-displacement

Good article; and he's 100% right. I'm surprised the Stranger published it since they've incubated many anti-gentrification voices over the years, though recently it sounds like they're getting better on that issue.

That comments section though... yeesh

[KingSweden]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

[KingSweden]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

I get the sense that the doctor who is endorsed by Emily’s list is going to lose if she is nominated just like burner.

Schrier? She might do okay. It’s hard to be worse than Burner. I still think Rittereiser is the best candidate for us