WA-8: Reichert retiring

[smoltchanov]

One of the most "balanced" districts in the nation (50-48 Obama, 48-45 Clinton). In old (pre-2012) incarnation would almost surely elect Democrat, in new one - well, both parties have chances, but pragmatic moderate would probably be better then "ideologized activist" (in both parties)

[smoltchanov]

Republicans also have good bench in the district. Both Reagan Dunn and Chad Magendanz (who almost defeated Mark Mullet last year in state senate race) may try to run. And with addition of "east of Cascades" counties, this district, is, probably, somewhat more conservative then SD-05

[smoltchanov]

Republicans also have good bench in the district. Both Reagan Dunn and Chad Magendanz (who almost defeated Mark Mullet last year in state senate race) may try to run. And with addition of "east of Cascades" counties, this district, is, probably, somewhat more conservative then SD-05

Yes but 2018 is likely gonna be more favorable to D's than 2016. And I'd guess more voters are willing to send Democrats to Congress but Republicans to the state legislature to act as a check. This is one of those districts

Quite possible. We will see...

[smoltchanov]

Strong pickup opportunity, but as also noted the bench is terrible. Pure tossup right now.

Yes. Slight Democratic leaning, but - better Republican bench...

[smoltchanov]

Per DKE, Mallot's not running, but State House Majority Leader Pat Sullivan and a ex-state representative Chris Hurst are both considering and seem like they could be strong candidates (especially Hurst).

The fact that both of these folks live in this district pretty much debunk the idea that the Democrats have a weak bench here.

It's all relatively. Among Republicans much greater number of names were mentioned. It's not TX-13, so Democrats have some bench, simply not that big...

[smoltchanov]

^ IIRC - Hurst is very moderate. Will "activists" support him?

[smoltchanov]

^ IIRC - Hurst is very moderate. Will "activists" support him?

WA-08 isn't really 'activist' territory.

Good that such territories still exist...

[smoltchanov]

^ IIRC - Hurst is very moderate. Will "activists" support him?

WA-08 isn't really 'activist' territory.

Good that such territories still exist...

Thanks to all. I understood....

Seattle has a pretty strong activist streak, but this district is more low-key suburban in nature.

[smoltchanov]

^ IIRC - Hurst is very moderate. Will "activists" support him?

WA-08 isn't really 'activist' territory.

Good that such territories still exist...

Everyone is either too rich and comfortable to care about activism or works a back-breaking low pay job which leaves them with no time or energy to care about activism.

So wonderful, It's the ideal society.

Activists are people who want to make the world better than it currently is. It's good to know there are some areas where people realize everything is perfect already.

Activists are people who want "to make the world better" according to their own ideas about what the better world is, and without asking other people's  opinion on this subject. As a result - save me God from them, i will do everything else myself...

[smoltchanov]

^ IIRC - Hurst is very moderate. Will "activists" support him?

WA-08 isn't really 'activist' territory.

Good that such territories still exist...

Everyone is either too rich and comfortable to care about activism or works a back-breaking low pay job which leaves them with no time or energy to care about activism.

So wonderful, It's the ideal society.

Activists are people who want to make the world better than it currently is. It's good to know there are some areas where people realize everything is perfect already.

Activists are people who want "to make the world better" according to their own ideas about what the better world is, and without asking other people's  opinion on this subject. As a result - save me God from them, i will do everything else myself...

I assume that you despised Martin Luther King, Jr. then? Not exactly surprising, to be fair.

No, he had a lot of (IMHO) good ideas. But i wasn't 100% in agreement with him ... It would be "methods" disagreements, not "goals"....

[smoltchanov]

^ IIRC - Hurst is very moderate. Will "activists" support him?

WA-08 isn't really 'activist' territory.

Good that such territories still exist...

Everyone is either too rich and comfortable to care about activism or works a back-breaking low pay job which leaves them with no time or energy to care about activism.

So wonderful, It's the ideal society.

Activists are people who want to make the world better than it currently is. It's good to know there are some areas where people realize everything is perfect already.

Activists are people who want "to make the world better" according to their own ideas about what the better world is, and without asking other people's  opinion on this subject. As a result - save me God from them, i will do everything else myself...

I assume that you despised Martin Luther King, Jr. then? Not exactly surprising, to be fair.

Oh c'mon Wolfentoad. That's obviously not what he meant.

Smoltchanov has stated that he likes racist Dixiecrats in the 1960s because they did what their constituents wanted them to do, so it isn't that big of a leap.

I never said that i liked them. I said, that it was only natural for them to be more or less supportive of segregation (racists) at that time, because 80-90% of their voters supported it. North Carolina defeated 2 congressmen, who refused to sign "Southern Manifest", in 50th - exactly because their voters were inclined to support segregation THEN. I doubt that could happen  now. As i said - you can't go against prevailing district's views without paying a political price. And HERE i agree with George Wallace: when Alabama was a racist, and to win you needed to be too - he was a racist. When Alabama stopped to be racist and changed - so did George Wallace (who got considerable Black support in his last governor race)

P.S. 1 (for better understanding of "native Englih speakers"): Would i vote for James Eastland in 1954 or 1960 if i would be a Mississippi voter (white southerner, as almost all Mississippi voters were then)? Almost sure, because i would be raised that way. Would i vote for "James Eastland-2017" now Of course - no.

[smoltchanov]

^ IIRC - Hurst is very moderate. Will "activists" support him?

WA-08 isn't really 'activist' territory.

Good that such territories still exist...

Everyone is either too rich and comfortable to care about activism or works a back-breaking low pay job which leaves them with no time or energy to care about activism.

So wonderful, It's the ideal society.

Activists are people who want to make the world better than it currently is. It's good to know there are some areas where people realize everything is perfect already.

Activists are people who want "to make the world better" according to their own ideas about what the better world is, and without asking other people's  opinion on this subject. As a result - save me God from them, i will do everything else myself...

I assume that you despised Martin Luther King, Jr. then? Not exactly surprising, to be fair.

Oh c'mon Wolfentoad. That's obviously not what he meant.

Smoltchanov has stated that he likes racist Dixiecrats in the 1960s because they did what their constituents wanted them to do, so it isn't that big of a leap.

I never said that i liked them. I said, that it was only natural for them to be more or less supportive of segregation (racists) at that time, because 80-90% of their voters supported it. North Carolina defeated 2 congressmen, who refused to sign "Southern Manifest", in 50th - exactly because their voters were inclined to support segregation THEN. I doubt that could happen  now. As i said - you can't go against prevailing district's views without paying a political price. And HERE i agree with George Wallace: when Alabama was a racist, and to win you needed to be too - he was a racist. When Alabama stopped to be racist and changed - so did George Wallace (who got considerable Black support in his last governor race)

P.S. 1 (for better understanding of "native Englih speakers"): Would i vote for James Eastland in 1954 or 1960 if i would be a Mississippi voter (white southerner, as almost all Mississippi voters were then)? Almost sure, because i would be raised that way. Would i vote for "James Eastland-2017" now Of course - no.

What George Wallace did was even worse because he knew pretty clearly better.  It's part of what made him a truly evil man.  You're only digging yourself a deeper hole by arguing racism/race-baiting politicians fine as long as racism/race-baiting is politically expedient.  Not gonna lie, that's pretty horrible (to say the least)!

Well, you are entitled to ypur opinion, i - to mine. And if you think that anybody's opinion here is critically important to me - then you are very wrong.

[smoltchanov]

Don't derail the thread, guys.

Very sorry for offtopic. It happens sometimes. I already said what i wanted, so - suggest the same.

[smoltchanov]

Tilt to Lean R. Especially - in present configuration with "east of Cascades" counties.

[smoltchanov]

One thing that may hurt Rossi: IIRC - he is generally pro-life. District is mostly pro-choice.

[smoltchanov]

Has Rossi won anythhing in his life?

Probably - more then you. At least 2 wins for state Senate before first governor race. So, right now, despite district leanings, and because low quality of Democratic candidates, i also consider this race Tilt R. Of course - a lot may change until November 6th.

[smoltchanov]

Rossi only has about a 25% chance of winning and that's being generous.

Agree to disagree. Especially - with Democratic candidates essentially being "bunch of nobodys". I was really surprised how weak Democratic "list" was...

[smoltchanov]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

Reichert also ran against Darcy Burner which always helps

I get the sense that the doctor who is endorsed by Emily’s list is going to lose if she is nominated just like burner.

Schrier? She might do okay. It’s hard to be worse than Burner. I still think Rittereiser is the best candidate for us

IMHO, the best candidate for Democrats would be moderate on fiscal issues (some reasonable fiscal conservative streak is rather welcome here) with strong liberal/libertarian leanings on social ones, and good connections (district isn't cheap and requires a lot of money for a candidate to be successfull). If there is one  in the present "pack" he/she will gave good chances, especially if the "wave" goes unabated. But, if leading Democrat will be "rabid progressive" - then i would bet my money on Rossi, despite him not being "the best" possible candidate either (IMHO, someone like Litzow/ Hill would be better, but - alas...)