BREAKING: Catalonia Declares Independence

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Not only the constitutional court said the referendum was illegal, but it also said the the mayors who help organizing it will be prosecuted, and probably fined + made ineligible, like Arthur Mas.

Professional politicians in big cities are not ready to jeopardize their careers for this.
Several of the 10 biggest cities (Lleida, Tarragona, Santa Coloma, l'Hosiptalet, Mataro...) already said there won't be any vote in their cities. Ada Colau (mayor of Barcelona) may take the same decision and if she does then it's the end of this referendum.

Also Monday is the "national" holiday of Catalonia and the independentists are organizing a big march, I hope they won't be too angry..

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Mas was already sentenced and does not have any elected position now. He was replaced by Carles Puigdemont who will face the same fate if he doesn't cancel the referendum.
But not all of the 700+ mayors in Catalonia want to follow them, especially the career politicians.

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Today the police arrested a dozen of high officials of the Catalan government, apparently the main organizers of the referendum. Also the police has been raiding printing companies and confiscated the ballots they found there. It's hard to see how the referendum could take place normally after all that.

Whoever is "right" on that question, Spanish democracy looks quite bad, when you compare fpr example with the UK and how it handled referedums on Scotland and the EU...

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So, do you think the referendum will actually take place on 1 October or not?

Most probably it will take place to a certain extent but it will lack the logistics to be seriously credible. People will have to print the ballots at home, many will vote in unofficial places and its possible that the police intervenes and prevents the vote from taking place in key areas. They will probably be quite a lot of irregularities, not because of cheating, but because the logistics are messed up.
 
Everyone is aware of this so the opponents will probably not bother and the result will be like last time: low participation and high percentage of yes.

Very unlikely that the government unilaterally declares independence after a vote that will lack credibility. We can expect the Catalan government to use as a starting point for negotations with the central government for more autonomy or, why not, a path towards a real referendum (unlikely imo)

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I was expecting the king to desescalate the situation... butthe opposite is happening

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Today the other side (anti independence) was demonstrating, there were hundreds of thousands of people, even though it was less crowded than the recent pro-independence marches (in my opinion).

People screaming "Viva España" and "Puigdemont en prison". Many demonstrators are coming from other parts on Spain. It was quite peaceful and the atmosphere was festive (it looked like Spain has won a football match). There are definitely some small far rights groups though and they are quite agressive, especially against the Mossos. We'll see how it ends.

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Puigdemont was due to declare independence in front of the Parliament but his speech is postponed for some time because of last minute international mediation (rumors)

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Can't Spain just give Catalonia Scotland like devolved powers within a united and indivisible Spain?

One thing to know is that in 2006 the Spanish government and the regional goverment agreed on a new autonomy status for Catalonia. Then Catalans accepted it through a referendum (a real one with all garanties that time). The PP, in opposition at that time, was against it. Then the Constitutional Court cancelled most of it in 2010.
That's when support for independence really surged. Independentists won several regional elections in a row, and now we reached a breaking point.
One way out of the crisis, that seem supported by the PSOE, would be to modify the constitution to allow a return to the autonomy status adopted in 2006.

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2 catalans leaders (from associations not politicians) jailed. They are accused of being the leaders of the demonstration that surrounded a building investigated by the Guardia Civil before the referendum, and trapped the police inside all night.
Trapero (head of the Mossos) avoided jail for now but got his passport confiscated so that he cannot leave Spain.
Pro-independence Catalans are not happy.

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Article 155 will apply next Friday when voted by the Spanish Senate. Rumors are that Puigdemont will declare independence before that.

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Today Puigdemont offered to organize anticipated elections in Catalonia against cancellation of the article 155 and the liberation of the two jailed association leaders. The central government refused.
Puigdemont decided to let the Catalan Parliament chose, they are now debating. Independentists in the Parliament are split between those who want to declare independence right now, and those who are ready to give up for this time.

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Today Puigdemont offered to organize anticipated elections in Catalonia against cancellation of the article 155 and the liberation of the two jailed association leaders. The central government refused.
Puigdemont decided to let the Catalan Parliament chose, they are now debating. Independentists in the Parliament are split between those who want to declare independence right now, and those who are ready to give up for this time.

What ended up happening?

Nothing yet, they will meet again today. Today could be the big day, but it's not a done deal. While independentists are a majority in the Parliament, the more moderate elements consider that unilateral independence will get all of them arrested and achieve nothing.

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Secret vote taking place now. On the resolution there is no word of "independence", but it approves the process of the creation of a Catalan Republic. Opposition left the room and will not vote.

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Tonight it's party night in the city center for the independentists. Flags, songs, beer and selfies. They should enjoy it, tomorrow may be hangover time.
No one knows what will happen tomorrow. Is the governement going to send the police and arrest all independence leaders?
Sunday there will be a big demonstration of the unionists. For the first time I am afraid it could be tense and potentially violent, will be more careful.

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Seems likely that the separatists will fold and accept to participate in the regional election. Probably with new leaders as the current ones may be jailed by then.
- If they lose then it will solve the problem, or at least postpone it for a few years. If they win and keep a majority in the regional parliament then.. who knows.

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9 members of the Catalan government have been jailed today, i.e all the government minus 5 members who are currently in Belgium (inckuding Puigdemont) and one guy that resigned before the declaration of independence. In theory they all risk up to 30 years in prison.

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Spain requested a european arrest warrant against Puigdemont.
Many are truly shocked by the decision to jail the whole government. The crisis continues...

As a foreigner I stayed away from gatherings of both side. Will go tonight for the first time.

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Tensions brutally raised tonight in Barcelona and the rest of Catalunya. In the last month, the weekly demonstrations started again (maybe with the return of better weather), and the calm period we had in January/February seemed over.
But now with the arrest of Puigdemont in Germany and the demonstrations that followed, we witnessed the most serious violent scenes since October 1st (the day of the referendum itself). Seems we are back in full crisis mode.

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Turn of events as the German court decided that they cannot extradite Puigdemont to Spain for "rebellion" as the Spanish definition of this is not a crime in Germany. Puigdemont is released after paying a bail, and has to stay in Germany while the court decides if they hand him over to Spain for "misuse of public funds".

The problem from Spain is that EU law says that if Germany extradites him only for "misuse of public funds", Spain will only be allowed to put him to trial for that (max 3 years of jail) and will not be allowed to prosecute him for "rebellion" (max 30 years of jail).

So now it's a dilemma for Spain, as they have to decide whether they continue with the extradition process and try to prosecute Puigdemont only for misuse of public funds, or whether they drop the extradition request entirely and try to get him another time.

There is not much progress on the main subject (catalan independence), but with Catalan politicians in exile in many different countries  (Germany, Switzerland, UK, Belgium) I am sure all of these will be taught in EU law / international law faculties.