BREAKING: Catalonia Declares Independence

[Zinneke]

Taking a cursory look at the polls, it seems that support for a referendum is far higher than support for independence, this could make a Catalonia secession more likely. Could someone familiar with the situation explain what's going on?

If you look in the Spanish thread on IE tack50 gives a drawn out explanation. For one, Catalonia has votes "Yes" before in both a dud referendum and what was presented as a proxy for a referendum, the 2015 regional election, where the nationalist parties won by a fraction enough to win a majority. For two, it appears the "unionist" party voters are indicating that they are boycotting, which will turn the referendum into a procession for the nationalists, but hardly legitimise it further.

So Catalan independence is still unlikely.

That's not to say Rajoy is acting completely unreasonably and is seemingly enjoying this game of chicken, knowing that this referendum helps him politically. Also, the people who cite the Constitutional Court should be aware that its members are partly elected by the Senate, the Congress of Deputies, the King and the Executive, all of whom are well known for their *unbiased* legal stance on peripheral nationalism. The Senate in particular is an institution that is elected in a way as to ensure the traditional parties (PP, PSOE) have a degree of control over the Constitutional Court.

The constitutional "failure" is that the autonomous parliament of Catalunya delivered a separatist majority through constitutional means, but the referendum they propose is unconstitutional, because as far as I gather, any modification to the constitution by referendum (allowing Catalonia to secede) must be done nationwide (all over Spain). So the most legal "pathway" for Catalans to declare independence is to lobby for a nationwide referendum as to whether they should stay in or not. 

Here is some nice reading material on the liklihood of secession in Europe and the EU's role : http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1396&context=djcil

[Zinneke]

Catalonia doesn't deserve to be able to break away even if nationalists can arguably easily corral a majority (if we treat the 2015 regional election as a proxy). Rajoy's handling of the situation has been good in my opinion. Una España unida y indivisible.

You are absolutely right, but why not go one step further and use "Espana, Una, Grande y Libre" to convince yet more Catalans that you represent their interests. That's bound to keep them believing in the Spanish institutions.

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Agree here, but this is no different to the manufactured grievances that cause faultlines across the world.

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*Their parties don't care about the rule of law. Have Catalan nationalists engaged in violence, intimidation, ethnic cleansing since Terra Lliurre? We have to give them at least this credit. Its all been done within democratic boundaries, save for the past few years. And the radicalization of the Catalan nationalist movement can and has been attributed to the PP's stance on autonomous powers.

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The part in bold can be said about the Partido Popular and Spanish nationalism, in much the same way radical Unionism in Northern Ireland and radical Belgicism way back in the 19-20th century lead to the creation or rebirth of artificial nationalism in their peripheral regions by political entrepreneurs. It is the one way ticket to not preserve a multi-ethnic state in modern Europe.

[Zinneke]

Catalonia doesn't deserve to be able to break away even if nationalists can arguably easily corral a majority (if we treat the 2015 regional election as a proxy). Rajoy's handling of the situation has been good in my opinion. Una España unida y indivisible.

You are absolutely right, but why not go one step further and use "Espana, Una, Grande y Libre" to convince yet more Catalans that you represent their interests. That's bound to keep them believing in the Spanish institutions.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Agree here, but this is no different to the manufactured grievances that cause faultlines across the world.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

*Their parties don't care about the rule of law. Have Catalan nationalists engaged in violence, intimidation, ethnic cleansing since Terra Lliurre? We have to give them at least this credit. Its all been done within democratic boundaries, save for the past few years. And the radicalization of the Catalan nationalist movement can and has been attributed to the PP's stance on autonomous powers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The part in bold can be said about the Partido Popular and Spanish nationalism, in much the same way radical Unionism in Northern Ireland and radical Belgicism way back in the 19-20th century lead to the creation or rebirth of artificial nationalism in their peripheral regions by political entrepreneurs. It is the one way ticket to not preserve a multi-ethnic state in modern Europe.

Belgium a nation invented by the United Kingdom and France to be neutral in wars. Half of your country does not want independence?

Catalonia is a rotten nest full of corruption and intolerance. It is not surprising that half of Spaniards accept the military force Against catalonia

Can you provide a single source demonstrating half of the Belgian population want the break-up of the Belgian state?

Can you provide a source that says half the Spanish people advocate military action against Catalonia?

[Zinneke]

Espana, Una, Grande y Libre is indeed a superior version to use in this context.

You do understand whose slogan that was, don't you?

Its OK, you tried. Its my fault for not adding the /s. 

[Zinneke]

So the Spanish government tried to take control of the Mossos, the Catalan regional police, in order to stop the alleged illegal referendum. And the Mossos refused. So I think there is a nuclear option where the Spanish government can ensure the Guardía Civil end up with total jurisdiction. I think that would be the point of no return for many nationalists.

But there is no way there is going to be a civil war.

[Zinneke]

A typical "both sides do it" situation.

The Ukrainisation/Russisation of Spain has begun ...

So far one side has engaged in violence though. The other has had its more extreme elements vandalize a few police cars.

[Zinneke]

The police do not act by order of rajoy, acts by irden of the supreme court of Spanish justice

How is the Supreme Court elected again?

[Zinneke]

A typical "both sides do it" situation.

The Ukrainisation/Russisation of Spain has begun ...

So far one side has engaged in violence though. The other has had its more extreme elements vandalize a few police cars.

The situation should have been solved decades ago, not now. The Spanish government of course is right to use police force to block the referendum, because Catalonia is an integral part of Spain - as outlined in the constitution. On the other hand, the Spanish government should have also made clear long ago that the Catalans are not shovelling billions of €s to Madrid because they are a wealthier region. Now, both sides are just dealing with the sympthoms of an issue that was ignored for too long. If you ignore a sickness for too long, it will kill you.

I agree with you except for the part of use of police force. Addressed to jeron too : the modern Catalan National movement has seldom used force, with the exception of Terra Lliurre, that dissolved decades ago. There is nothing stopping Rajoy from using the same strategy previously used : that of ignoring non-legal referenda and trying the instigators in a court in a dignified, non-violent manner. This sudden police response that includes highly repressive tactics is a disproportionate use of violence.

[Zinneke]

This crisis is a concrete example on the crisis of Social Democracy, honestly Sanchez (or any member of the PSOE) are invisible, don't have clear propositions to resolve the conflict and no one seems to care. The only news I saw about the PSOE is about a inner fight about the censure of Santa Maria (the vice president).

They have maybe been invisible in the media circus but they are de facto preventing  Article 155 from being triggered by Rajoy and Rivera even though its Being discussed, ans the PSC are the ones who brought the case to suspend thé parliamentary session in Catalonia next monday that was supposed to thé official UDI.

Sorry for spelling. Its on french auto correct.

[Zinneke]

That said, Spanish nationalists often get a kick about overruling Catalan autonomy on the most random issues, like reversing their ban on bullfighting.

To play the Devil's Advocate (because I do agree with you), they seem to mainly use symbolic crap like bullfighting as a way to counter what they see as a blatant assault on the Spanish culture in Catalonia, particularly the language policies there. A regular argument I hear by Ciutadans for example is that a child would only start Castellano at a late age compared to someone living in Aragon, when most of the nationalist bourgeois Convergents send their kids to private schools where they are immersed in trilingualism. IIRC C's was actually partly born out of the rejection of the new language policies, that they see as fundamentally denying the history of Spanish people in Catalonia (the most prominent one being the immigration of Andalucíans to there - their regional leader Arrimadas is for example of Andalucían origin).

But yeah, PP and C's seem to like glorifying all the worse aspects of "Hispanidad" which will never help their case in convincing moderate, autonomous nationalists to at least recognise their views. I can only laugh when I see people like Guy Verhofstadt on twitter praising "liberal" C's. But then again he also courted Beppe Brillo.

[Zinneke]

I think that, at this point, maybe trying to make a deal with the E. U. would work: Catalonia will receive its own currency alongside the Euro, and slightly lowering tax burdens in Catalonia.

The EU isn't its own actor, despite what the eurosceptic propaganda likes to say. Yes, there's a lot of "groupthink" and "eurospeak" in Brussels where the policies are drafted*, and yes its "constitution", in the form of Treaties is based on an outdated liberal paradigm, but its treaties still confer most of the power to its Member-states. On issues such as accession to the EU, there has to be unanimity. Every member-state has to agree.

As such, Catalonia cannot negotiate with the EU without first settling its dispute with Spain. And what's more all of the EU countries, with the possible excpetion of Belgium whose largest party is nationalist, do not want to revise each other's borders.

The way forward for Catalonia should it declare independence is simply opening its capital markets fully to people who actively want to undermine the EU (Russia, maybe China but even their businessmen were starting to look at Barcelona's property as a way to store their capital away from the CCP), devaluating its currency, and essentially defaulting on the considerable debt its owes to the Spanish state. No country in Europe would trust the Catalan markets, as productive as its industrial strategy has been.

* I'd argue euroscepticism has made it worse.