ShamDam
ChanDan
Jr. Member
Posts: 827
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« Reply #25 on: December 14, 2017, 12:49:57 AM » |
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Either is possible. But I actually believe Texas is more likely.
I think Beto O'Rourke can capitalize on four major advantages.
1. General unpopularity of Trump in 2018/favorable environment for Democrats.
2. The specific unpopularity of Trump in Texas. He only won it by 9 points. It was closer than Iowa.
3. The specific unpopularity of Ted Cruz as an incumbent. He is one of the most reviled figures in American politics, and you should not underestimate the enthusiasm among Texas Democrats to remove him from office.
4. Beto O'Rourke is the most charismatic and message-specific statewide Democrat we've run in decades. He's got the look. He's got the charm. He's got the progressive "no Super PAC" bona fides. He speaks Spanish. And we're talkin' legit Spanish, not that Tim Kaine nonsense. I think Texas Latino turnout is a sleeping giant that has been rumored in lore for so long: this could be the candidate that can finally tap into it.
Tennessee has advantage #1, plus a candidate that has won statewide before, and no incumbent. But on balance? I give Texas the edge.
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