PA-15: Rep. Charlie Dent (R) to retire

[boske94]

Congressman Charlie Dent, moderate Republican, will not stand for reelection in PA-15 district (58-38% in last election).

http://www.cityandstatepa.com/content/sources-congressman-dent-will-not-stand-reelection

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oof! He was the GOP's only hope of ever winning another senate seat in PA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oof! He was the GOP's only hope of ever winning another senate seat in PA.

That's a bit drastic. Barletta v. Casey '18 is only Lean D.

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This seat may be something democrats look at. Dent was very popular and won by landslides as a result, but at the top of the ballot this is a republican-leaning swing seat:

2008: 52-47 Obama
2012: 51-48 Romney
2016: 52-44 Trump

[windjammer]

Called it!!!

[Heisenberg]

Interesting he said he "made the decision months ago, " and yet he still revealed the text messages to go on attack.

[DrScholl]

In a wave, this is a seat that Democrats would almost certainly pick up. These are the retirements that don't bode well for House Republicans.

[Heisenberg]

Oof! He was the GOP's only hope of ever winning another senate seat in PA.

If he could even win the primary (I doubt he would), I bet a lot of conservatives, especially those who are pro-lifers and/or Trumpists, would either stay home, vote third party, or even defect to Casey. This isn't Hotelling's model, where you race to the center to win, winning these days is really about firing up the base (and keeping them on your side).

[Suburbia]

He is a good centrist Republican. He may run for Senate in 2018 or governor in 2018. He should run for PA governor. He'd be better than Scott Wagner.

This seat, PA-15 is Tossup.

[KingSweden]

An opportunity - but still a R-lean. WA-8 is the riper fruit

[boske94]

Trump won this district 52/44.

[ajc0918]

These are the types of retirements the GOP certainly doesn't want.

[Kingpoleon]

Oof! He was the GOP's only hope of ever winning another senate seat in PA.

If he could even win the primary (I doubt he would), I bet a lot of conservatives, especially those who are pro-lifers and/or Trumpists, would either stay home, vote third party, or even defect to Casey. This isn't Hotelling's model, where you race to the center to win, winning these days is really about firing up the base (and keeping them on your side).

Indeed! That's why Romney did so well when he appealed to the base on immigration, taxes, guns, and gay marriage.

[Ye We Can]

[Mr.Phips]

I still think this seat leans GOP.  The pre-2012 PA-15 would have leaned Dem, but the 2011 redistricting cut out the Dem strongholds of Allentown and Bethlehem and added GOP heavy rural areas to the West.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oof! He was the GOP's only hope of ever winning another senate seat in PA.

If he could even win the primary (I doubt he would), I bet a lot of conservatives, especially those who are pro-lifers and/or Trumpists, would either stay home, vote third party, or even defect to Casey. This isn't Hotelling's model, where you race to the center to win, winning these days is really about firing up the base (and keeping them on your side).

Indeed! That's why Romney did so well when he appealed to the base on immigration, taxes, guns, and gay marriage.

Romney never attacked Obama on gay marriage. (GOP-affiliated groups did, but not Romney himself) And I don't recall guns being a huge issue in the '12 campaign.

[TheSaint250]

[The Other Castro]

There are probably many more moderate Republican retirement announcements still to come.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Oof! He was the GOP's only hope of ever winning another senate seat in PA.

If he could even win the primary (I doubt he would), I bet a lot of conservatives, especially those who are pro-lifers and/or Trumpists, would either stay home, vote third party, or even defect to Casey. This isn't Hotelling's model, where you race to the center to win, winning these days is really about firing up the base (and keeping them on your side).

Indeed! That's why Romney did so well when he appealed to the base on immigration, taxes, guns, and gay marriage.

Romney pursued too narrow of a base in terms of the electoral college.

[Nyvin]

Not like this makes it a tossup or anything quite yet....but still positive news for Democrats.

Any chance Pat Meehan follows suit?   He's older than Dent.

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is definitely the kind of district that would flip in a moderately-good D year. I think it's somewhere between Leans R and Likely R.

[McGovernForPrez]

Wow didn't someone mention this in the hopeful retirements thread just the other day? That's crazy timing. GOPers dropping like flies.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Figueira]

Lean R, I guess.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is weakening the GOP's hold on the house. This seat is no longer Safe R without Dent.

[MAINEiac4434]

Dent was facing a semi-strong primary challenge from Justin Simmons, too.

This district is only R+4, it could easily flip.