Why does Middlesex County, N.J. vote Democratic?
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  Why does Middlesex County, N.J. vote Democratic?
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Author Topic: Why does Middlesex County, N.J. vote Democratic?  (Read 1530 times)
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bronz4141
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« on: September 08, 2017, 05:32:08 PM »
« edited: January 25, 2018, 07:40:00 PM by bronz4141 »

The populous central Jersey county has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 1988, when Bush/Quayle '88 defeated Dukakis/Bentsen '88 by 10 points. The last N.J. gubernatorial Republican to win N.J. was Chris Christie in 2013. It is a middle class county, but diverse with lots of Asian and Indian voters. Is that the reason?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middlesex_County,_New_Jersey
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2017, 09:27:09 PM »

It also has Rutgers New Brunswick and Princeton.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2017, 10:04:42 PM »
« Edited: September 08, 2017, 10:07:08 PM by Brittain33 »

It also has Rutgers New Brunswick and Princeton.

Princeton's actually in Mercer County.

I grew up there. It's become incredibly more diverse in the last 20-30 years, like California, with a very large South Asian and East Asian population. Even before then it had a large Jewish and Eastern European population as well as small, struggling cities like New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, and South Plainfield. It had few upscale suburbs like you see in Bergen, Morris, or Somerset... its suburbs went up quickly on farmland, orchards, and swamps, solidly middle class and not fancy. When the Verrazano Bridge opened in the 1960s this was the closest part of NJ to people leaving Brooklyn; most of my classmates' parents were from Brooklyn or Statem Island. The Republicans' religious right turn in the '90s did not play well here.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2017, 01:44:11 PM »

The last N.J. gubernatorial Republican to win N.J. was Chris Christie in 2013.

Which was the last gubernatorial election.  He carried it in 2009 as well, while actually losing Bergen County which I guess usually goes to any winning Republican.  I remember someone saying that that had to be the first time a Republican won statewide without carrying Bergen County.  "And to do it while carrying Middlesex?  Wow!"  (Probably not a 100% accurate quote.)  Christie carried like everything in 2013.  (Well, not like Newark, but you know what I mean.  The only counties he lost were Essex (37.00% to 61.77%) and Hudson (43.59% to 54.67%).)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2017, 05:09:45 PM »

I think the large Indian population and relatively small Italian population (for NJ!) as well as the presence of Rutgers, are big factors.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2017, 01:07:56 PM »

Heavy minority population + Rutgers.
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hopper
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2017, 11:08:23 PM »

It also has Rutgers New Brunswick and Princeton.

Princeton's actually in Mercer County.

I grew up there. It's become incredibly more diverse in the last 20-30 years, like California, with a very large South Asian and East Asian population. Even before then it had a large Jewish and Eastern European population as well as small, struggling cities like New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, and South Plainfield. It had few upscale suburbs like you see in Bergen, Morris, or Somerset... its suburbs went up quickly on farmland, orchards, and swamps, solidly middle class and not fancy. When the Verrazano Bridge opened in the 1960s this was the closest part of NJ to people leaving Brooklyn; most of my classmates' parents were from Brooklyn or Statem Island. The Republicans' religious right turn in the '90s did not play well here.
South Plainfield is a town. Plainfield is referred to as a city.

Middlesex County actually trended R very slightly in 2016. I still think Middlesex County will stay D for at least a generation maybe a little more on the Presidential level.
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pikachu
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« Reply #7 on: September 13, 2017, 05:26:30 PM »

Didn't you say you were from Middlesex, bronz?

Anyway, the diversity in Middlesex in interesting because in the 21st century it has gotten very Asian very quickly*. Growing up in the area, a lot of the high schools have become plurality Asian and when you drive down Route 27 from Princeton through the county, it seems like every business has a name with origins from the subcontinent or China. I think it also has the largest Indian-American population by % in the country, and it really shows. Movie theaters sell samosas, there are multiple Indian supermarkets, a neighborhood which is a Little Gujurat, and the town where Trump had his Hindu speech was just outside the county. Definitely more interesting for a suburb than one would expect.

*Now that I think about, it might have the highest Asian % of any county outside of CA and HI other than Queens.
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #8 on: September 13, 2017, 08:21:10 PM »

pretty much
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2017, 11:42:32 AM »
« Edited: September 14, 2017, 11:47:32 AM by Tintrlvr »

Didn't you say you were from Middlesex, bronz?

Anyway, the diversity in Middlesex in interesting because in the 21st century it has gotten very Asian very quickly*. Growing up in the area, a lot of the high schools have become plurality Asian and when you drive down Route 27 from Princeton through the county, it seems like every business has a name with origins from the subcontinent or China. I think it also has the largest Indian-American population by % in the country, and it really shows. Movie theaters sell samosas, there are multiple Indian supermarkets, a neighborhood which is a Little Gujurat, and the town where Trump had his Hindu speech was just outside the county. Definitely more interesting for a suburb than one would expect.

*Now that I think about, it might have the highest Asian % of any county outside of CA and HI other than Queens.

Yes, and Indian-Americans (and even more so other South Asian-Americans) have historically tended to be an extremely strongly (90%-ish) Democratic group, overall, much more so than East Asians. (Though this might have been a little different in 2016, when some Modi-supporting Indian-Americans backed Trump, but unclear how much this was actually a "real" phenomenon among people who otherwise would not have been Republican voters.)

And, yes, Middlesex County has the highest Asian-American population in the US outside of California, Hawaii and Queens and almost certainly the highest South Asian-American population in the US.

Huge Asian-American population + highly educated + not especially wealthy for a NYC suburban county + substantial other minority populations + major state university + overflow from another major university (Princeton isn't in Middlesex County but definitely influences the southern end of the county) makes it obvious it would be a fairly strongly Democratic place.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2017, 12:40:38 PM »

Trump outperformed Romney in Middlesex but of course wasn't even close to winning the plurality of the vote.
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