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Author Topic: 2018 Canadian provincial Election predictions  (Read 9230 times)
mileslunn
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« on: September 09, 2017, 03:02:02 am »

There are three provincial elections scheduled for next year, predict the outcome

Ontario June 7, 2018
New Brunswick September 24, 2018
Quebec October 1, 2018

Mine are tentatively but subject to change as events occur

Ontario - PC Majority
Quebec - Liberal Minority
New Brunswick - Liberal Majority

For official opposition, New Brunswick is off course obvious but I predict the following.

Ontario - Liberals are official opposition (strong base and Wynne is a very good campaigner)
Quebec - PQ forms official opposition (CAQ support is quite soft and fluid also less concentrated so they may come in second in votes, but I think PQ will in seats come in second).
« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 04:12:35 pm by mileslunn »Logged
JoeyOCanada
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2017, 02:09:44 pm »

Ontario - PC Majority
New Brunswick - PC Minority
Quebec - Liberal Majority
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Cynthia
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2017, 04:51:13 pm »

Ontario - PC Minority
New Brunswick - Liberal Majority
Quebec - CAQ Minority
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Former GM 1184AZ
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2017, 01:35:54 am »

Ontario-PC Majority (though Brown absolutely doesn’t have this in the bag; if he runs a decent campaign he should win)
New Brunswick-Liberal Majority (really to early tell right now though)
Quebec-Liberal minority
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2017, 01:07:00 pm »

ON:PC majority
NB: LIB majority
QC: CAQ minority
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2017, 01:02:22 am »

Ontario - Libs squeeze out a win.
New Brunswick - Liberal Majority.
Quebec - CAQ Majority.
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the506
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2017, 01:30:01 am »

Ontario: PC minority
NB: PC majority
Quebec: CAQ minority
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super6646
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« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2018, 03:19:08 am »

Ontario: PC majority

New Brunswick: LIB majority?

Quebec: Lib minority
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Nick Mullen Democrat
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2018, 07:44:41 pm »

Ontario: Liberal minority with NDP supply and confidence.
NB: Liberal majority
Quebec: CAQ minority
« Last Edit: June 02, 2018, 02:15:13 pm by clash »Logged
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« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2018, 12:27:09 pm »

ON: PC win, probably majority
NB: PC majority
QC: PLQ minority
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SJ84
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« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2018, 02:17:58 pm »

ON: PC majority
NB: Liberal minority
QC: CAQ minority
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mileslunn
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2018, 08:39:02 pm »

My updated ones are:

Ontario: Still PC Majority despite leadership change
Quebec: CAQ minority
New Brunswick: Liberal majority still
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augbell
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« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2018, 07:18:25 am »

In Quebec it could be a CAQ minority with PQ as official opposition
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Lok
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« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2018, 05:52:04 am »

ON: PC Super majority
QC: CAQ Majority
NB: I'll say LIB Majority for now, but if PC keeps trending upwards, it could change.
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« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2018, 05:15:50 pm »

Ontario-PC Majority (though Brown absolutely doesn’t have this in the bag; if he runs a decent campaign he should win)
New Brunswick-Liberal Majority (really to early tell right now though)
Quebec-Liberal minority
Updated

Ontario-PC Minority (I'm still not convinced that the PC will be able to hold on to their strong polling lead under Ford )
New Brunswick-Liberal Majority (Not counting out a PC surge but for now it looks like a Liberal Majority)
Quebec-Liberal Minority but very strong showing for CAQ (I wouldn't really be surprised by a CAQ victory)
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Lok
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« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2018, 06:09:02 pm »

I'm also downgrading my ON prediction to just PC Majority.
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Pericles
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2018, 01:19:48 am »

On current polls in Ontario, a PC landslide. However I'm unconvinced this will remain the situation, and think it could end up with the PCs anywhere in 65-55 seats, the NDP making major gains and becoming the Official Opposition and the Liberals losing most of their seats and getting only single digits seat-wise.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2018, 03:08:45 pm »

Update ones from me:

ON: Liberals fall to third, still too to call between PC and NDP, but lean towards NDP but final days critical.
QC: CAQ minority but could change
NB: Still lean towards Lib majority, but PC majority very possible.
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Lok
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« Reply #18 on: May 29, 2018, 05:00:01 am »

ON update: Lean NDP
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #19 on: May 29, 2018, 07:07:20 am »

ON: PC majority

QC: CAQ minority

NB: Tossup, but if I had to guess, I'd go with the Liberals
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Nick Mullen Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2018, 02:15:30 pm »

Ontario: Liberal minority with NDP supply and confidence. PC majority
NB: Liberal majority
Quebec: CAQ minority
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mileslunn
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« Reply #21 on: June 11, 2018, 01:59:39 pm »

So far one down and two to go. My initial prediction of a PC majority in Ontario was correct, let's see how the other two go. Actually except for a brief period mid campaign that seemed the most likeliest and in fact of the three elections this year Ontario was probably the easiest to predict.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2018, 12:10:34 am »

I got New Brunswick wrong.  While we don't know who will form government there, unless a recount changes any seats, PC minority would count as correct since PCs won the most seats although as with any minority it is not who wins the most seats, it is who can obtain the confidence.
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JoeyOCanada
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« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2018, 06:36:10 am »

New Brunswick - PC Minority

Called it all the way back in 2017
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« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2018, 11:50:30 am »

Considering NB has only had one other minority government (back in 1920), it was a very erm... bold prediction.
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