2018 Canadian provincial Election predictions

[mileslunn]

There are three provincial elections scheduled for next year, predict the outcome

Ontario June 7, 2018
New Brunswick September 24, 2018
Quebec October 1, 2018

Mine are tentatively but subject to change as events occur

Ontario - PC Majority
Quebec - Liberal Minority
New Brunswick - Liberal Majority

For official opposition, New Brunswick is off course obvious but I predict the following.

Ontario - Liberals are official opposition (strong base and Wynne is a very good campaigner)
Quebec - PQ forms official opposition (CAQ support is quite soft and fluid also less concentrated so they may come in second in votes, but I think PQ will in seats come in second).

[JoeyOCanada]

Ontario - PC Majority
New Brunswick - PC Minority
Quebec - Liberal Majority

[Cynthia]

Ontario - PC Minority
New Brunswick - Liberal Majority
Quebec - CAQ Minority

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ontario-PC Majority (though Brown absolutely doesn’t have this in the bag; if he runs a decent campaign he should win)
New Brunswick-Liberal Majority (really to early tell right now though)
Quebec-Liberal minority

[RogueBeaver]

ON:PC majority
NB: LIB majority
QC: CAQ minority

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Ontario - Libs squeeze out a win.
New Brunswick - Liberal Majority.
Quebec - CAQ Majority.

[the506]

Ontario: PC minority
NB: PC majority
Quebec: CAQ minority

[super6646]

Ontario: PC majority

New Brunswick: LIB majority?

Quebec: Lib minority

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Ontario: Liberal minority with NDP supply and confidence.
NB: Liberal majority
Quebec: CAQ minority

[Hatman 🍁]

ON: PC win, probably majority
NB: PC majority
QC: PLQ minority

[SJ84]

ON: PC majority
NB: Liberal minority
QC: CAQ minority

[mileslunn]

My updated ones are:

Ontario: Still PC Majority despite leadership change
Quebec: CAQ minority
New Brunswick: Liberal majority still

[augbell]

In Quebec it could be a CAQ minority with PQ as official opposition

[Lachi]

ON: PC Super majority
QC: CAQ Majority
NB: I'll say LIB Majority for now, but if PC keeps trending upwards, it could change.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ontario-PC Majority (though Brown absolutely doesn’t have this in the bag; if he runs a decent campaign he should win)
New Brunswick-Liberal Majority (really to early tell right now though)
Quebec-Liberal minority

Updated

Ontario-PC Minority (I'm still not convinced that the PC will be able to hold on to their strong polling lead under Ford )
New Brunswick-Liberal Majority (Not counting out a PC surge but for now it looks like a Liberal Majority)
Quebec-Liberal Minority but very strong showing for CAQ (I wouldn't really be surprised by a CAQ victory)

[Lachi]

I'm also downgrading my ON prediction to just PC Majority.

[Pericles]

On current polls in Ontario, a PC landslide. However I'm unconvinced this will remain the situation, and think it could end up with the PCs anywhere in 65-55 seats, the NDP making major gains and becoming the Official Opposition and the Liberals losing most of their seats and getting only single digits seat-wise.

[mileslunn]

Update ones from me:

ON: Liberals fall to third, still too to call between PC and NDP, but lean towards NDP but final days critical.
QC: CAQ minority but could change
NB: Still lean towards Lib majority, but PC majority very possible.

[Lachi]

ON update: Lean NDP

[ON Progressive]

ON: PC majority

QC: CAQ minority

NB: Tossup, but if I had to guess, I'd go with the Liberals

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Ontario: Liberal minority with NDP supply and confidence. PC majority
NB: Liberal majority
Quebec: CAQ minority

[mileslunn]

So far one down and two to go. My initial prediction of a PC majority in Ontario was correct, let's see how the other two go. Actually except for a brief period mid campaign that seemed the most likeliest and in fact of the three elections this year Ontario was probably the easiest to predict.

[mileslunn]

I got New Brunswick wrong.  While we don't know who will form government there, unless a recount changes any seats, PC minority would count as correct since PCs won the most seats although as with any minority it is not who wins the most seats, it is who can obtain the confidence.

[JoeyOCanada]

New Brunswick - PC Minority

Called it all the way back in 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

Considering NB has only had one other minority government (back in 1920), it was a very erm... bold prediction.