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Author Topic: Why was Kerry doing so bad in the polls before the first debate  (Read 500 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: September 09, 2017, 01:19:35 pm »
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Like In September of 2004 Bush had a 7-9 Point lead over Kerry :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#United_States_presidential_election.2C_2004


https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-bush-holding-lead-over-kerry/


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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2017, 02:31:49 pm »
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Im not talking about why he was losing , I'm talking why he was losing by 7-9 points before the first debate which is a much bigger margin than he actually lost by in November.



If he lost by 7-9 points  this would be the map



Bush gets anywhere to 355-356 electoral votes if he wins by 7-9 points in 2004.



Did the debate change the ball game that much where the election turned from a solid Bush victory to a narrow Bush victory . Heck even before September the election was looking like it was going to be a narrow victory for Bush, what happened in September that gave Bush such a large lead.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 02:36:33 pm by Old School Republican »Logged

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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2017, 03:05:28 pm »
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Im not talking about why he was losing , I'm talking why he was losing by 7-9 points before the first debate which is a much bigger margin than he actually lost by in November.



If he lost by 7-9 points  this would be the map



Bush gets anywhere to 355-356 electoral votes if he wins by 7-9 points in 2004.



Did the debate change the ball game that much where the election turned from a solid Bush victory to a narrow Bush victory . Heck even before September the election was looking like it was going to be a narrow victory for Bush, what happened in September that gave Bush such a large lead.

As somebody mentioned his sizable single digit lead was because of the Republican National Convention which was pretty successful.


Bush stumbled on the First debate pretty badly and had terrible answers on a lot of questions which allowed Kerry to rebound.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/election.poll/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

61% of People who watched the debate said Kerry won.


https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html


A bigger question is why he rebounded by the end of the third debate despite debate watchers saying Kerry also won that debate(by a smaller margin than the first).
« Last Edit: September 09, 2017, 03:10:40 pm by ( ͡ ͜ʖ ͡) »Logged
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2017, 03:35:46 pm »
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Kerry was leading until the RNC Convention.

Bush was leading bigly after the Convention but the debates damaged Bush and narrowed his lead because he did terribly.

The 2004 RNC lasted from August 30th to September 2nd, here's the aggregate polling before the Convetion:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/aug/aug29.html

Kerry was leading with 270 electoral votes, and here's the aggregate polling after the Convention:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/sep/sep03.html

Bush 270 Kerry 252
Didn't know Tennessee was on the radar of competitive states in 2004. Was it because of the common polling error in Tennessee of overestimating the D vote? Or was Kerry definitely favored there at one point during the campaign?
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2017, 10:13:06 am »
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Kerry was leading until the RNC Convention.

Bush was leading bigly after the Convention but the debates damaged Bush and narrowed his lead because he did terribly.

The 2004 RNC lasted from August 30th to September 2nd, here's the aggregate polling before the Convetion:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/aug/aug29.html

Kerry was leading with 270 electoral votes, and here's the aggregate polling after the Convention:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/sep/sep03.html

Bush 270 Kerry 252
Didn't know Tennessee was on the radar of competitive states in 2004. Was it because of the common polling error in Tennessee of overestimating the D vote? Or was Kerry definitely favored there at one point during the campaign?

TN, AR, and MO were still precarious before the 2004 election took place. Bill Clinton had carried them twice and Bush only won the states by slight margins in 2000, so pundits were unsure how the states would behave relative to the NPV. The final results confirmed TN and AR as solid R states, while MO remained competitive until 2012.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2017, 12:18:52 pm »
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It's also worth pointing out that the RNC was held super-late in 2004, so the convention bump is much later than it'd usually be.
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2017, 03:39:14 pm »
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Im not talking about why he was losing , I'm talking why he was losing by 7-9 points before the first debate which is a much bigger margin than he actually lost by in November.



If he lost by 7-9 points  this would be the map



Bush gets anywhere to 355-356 electoral votes if he wins by 7-9 points in 2004.



Did the debate change the ball game that much where the election turned from a solid Bush victory to a narrow Bush victory . Heck even before September the election was looking like it was going to be a narrow victory for Bush, what happened in September that gave Bush such a large lead.

This is basically what state polls showed in mid September, although I am pretty sure Kerry still led in Michigan and maybe Oregon.
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2017, 04:57:44 pm »
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Kerry choked like Hillary. He stood for nothing, ran for nothing, and his campaign was basically summed up with: Bush

Kerry also never took off the gloves, he should of called Bush a liar on the Iraq War but just like with Hillary's inability to put away the phony email scandals...he played it safe and the right just tore him up for it.
I think Kerry could of won against Trump. Hillary was the most disliked democratic nominee. Trump is no George W Bush. Kerry lost to someone who can govern.

I remember Bush had a bad first debate performance. The swiftboat ads were on the air for much of the summer. Kerry was slow responding. Bush and his team defined Kerry early on,similar to what Obama did with Romney.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 07:33:33 pm by Da2017 »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2017, 05:11:45 pm »
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Bush ran as a Khaki candidate, wrapping 9/11 so tight around him he practically choked, the Democrats were scared stiff of looking unpatriotic by even opposing him (hence "Reporting for Duty" Kerry) and of course the fact that we were at war meant we couldn't "change horses in the middle of a stream" for fear of bolstering our enemies' morale, never mind it was Bush's war of choice. That came back to bite him and the GOP, though.
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« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2017, 05:29:47 pm »
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The 2004 RNC Convention pretty much ended it for Kerry. Kerry's Convention gave him the smallest polling bump in history up until that point. Bush's Convention, especially Zell Miller's speech, was wildly successful.

Kerry choked like Hillary. He stood for nothing, ran for nothing, and his campaign was basically summed up with: Bush is a bad man. Never mind the fact, he voted for the Iraq War himself.

Kerry also never took off the gloves, he should of called Bush a liar on the Iraq War but just like with Hillary's inability to put away the phony email scandals...he played it safe and the right just tore him up for it.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2017, 05:58:11 pm »
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Im not talking about why he was losing , I'm talking why he was losing by 7-9 points before the first debate which is a much bigger margin than he actually lost by in November.



If he lost by 7-9 points  this would be the map



Bush gets anywhere to 355-356 electoral votes if he wins by 7-9 points in 2004.



Did the debate change the ball game that much where the election turned from a solid Bush victory to a narrow Bush victory . Heck even before September the election was looking like it was going to be a narrow victory for Bush, what happened in September that gave Bush such a large lead.

This is basically what state polls showed in mid September, although I am pretty sure Kerry still led in Michigan and maybe Oregon.


I believe Bush greatly outperformed the polls in Michigan and Oregon that year PVI wise that year.

For this map i just basically gave Bush any states he lost by 4.5 points or less , and Made Maine 1st a maybe because it would have flipped if the upper range of the mid September polls were right.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 06:08:38 pm by Old School Republican »Logged

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