Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 10:45:56 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Dereich)
  Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump  (Read 24078 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« on: September 13, 2017, 11:03:42 PM »

In Tennessee, I would check:

3) Knoxville
4) Chattanooga
5) Clarksville
6) Murfreesboro

I can't quite tell for Knoxville and Chattanooga, but looking over the precinct results for Montgomery County, it looks highly likely that Trump won Clarksville.  Only one precinct actually has an address that isn't Clarksville, so Trump easily won the Clarksville addresses (is it possible that those could be different from the city limits, though)?  He also won the "Clarksville" precinct roughly 2:1, but that seems to just be referring to Clarksville High School.

If he somehow won none of those, we can be certain that he won #7 (Franklin) because he won every precinct in Williamson County.
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2017, 09:02:43 PM »

Trump definitely lost Nashville and Memphis and definitely won Franklin (#7).  He likely won Clarksville and Murfreesboro (#'s 5 and 6) too, but I am not quite sure on Knoxville (#3) and Chattanooga (#4).  I might be able to run those numbers when I have some time!
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2017, 06:16:04 PM »
« Edited: September 21, 2017, 06:25:53 PM by ExtremeConservative »

If my boundaries are right, I have Chattanooga at 54.1 to 41.0 for Hillary Clinton.  I guess the rest of the county was overwhelmingly Republican, since Trump won the county 55-39 even though the City of Chattanooga is the majority of the county (at least by number of precincts).

OK, according to the best precinct data I could find, the answer is #5 Clarksville, which Trump won 49.4 to 44.4.
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2017, 09:15:15 AM »

If my boundaries are right, I have Chattanooga at 54.1 to 41.0 for Hillary Clinton.  I guess the rest of the county was overwhelmingly Republican, since Trump won the county 55-39 even though the City of Chattanooga is the majority of the county (at least by number of precincts).

OK, according to the best precinct data I could find, the answer is #5 Clarksville, which Trump won 49.4 to 44.4.

So, I think we both agree that Clinton won Knoxville based upon our own reviews analysis of precinct level election results....

However, our numbers diverge considerably, so I was curious what you were running as Knoxville numbers....

One complicating factor is that we do have  a considerable number of split-precincts that do not fall completely within City limits....

For the sake of my numbers I included precincts #1-51 as Knoxville, (Note that my when I posted yesterday I inadvertently and incorrectly used my Excel Row numbers and referenced them as precinct numbers, so my City subtotal numbers are still the same) since the entire precinct or overwhelming majority of the precinct fell within Knoxville City limits, as per this precinct map...

http://comptroller.tn.gov/repository/LG/DistrictMaps/Knox/Precinct%20Maps/Current%20Voter%20Precinct%20Map.pdf

My precinct level numbers exported to a spreadsheet from another source (Easier conversion from Text to Column) shows the same raw vote subtotals by candidate for the County....

There was only one other precinct not included in my numbers that Clinton carried was 68E- East Cedar Bluff....

So, my question for you, is there additional information out there that identifies the "split-precinct areas", did the City limit boundaries change between the Nov '16 election and '17 "Current Precinct Map" from Know County that could explain the discrepancy?

So, Clarksville appears be confirmed for TN, and that you ran the County numbers from Precincts #1-21 in Montgomery County....

Much of the population of Clarksville is closely tied to two neighboring large US Military bases...

Interestingly enough the population of Clarksville (23.1%) is much more African-American than Knoxville (16.9%).... and statistically only 60.5% Anglo in Population...

So it appears that the Anglo/ "White" population of Knoxville are much more Democratic than in Clarksville.... Could be a weird outliar as well though caused by a relatively transitional population, many of whom vote within other political jurisdictions as military families, and unfortunately because of a mixture of restrictive state voting right policies, combined with constant shifts in deployment patterns while wearing the American flag patch in the service of our nation, voter turnout among military families is significantly lower than the national average. This is obviously a national disgrace that our election system does not allow Military Families easy access to voting in many states (As is also the case with College Students moving across State Lines as wel)

OT: I believe there should be an individual thread devoted to KY, TN, and AR (We can leave WV aside potentially to avoid Atlas excessively heated debates that go back over 10 years), since these areas appear to be an interesting case study in electoral shifts among White/Anglo voters when one starts to examine election results in deeper detail starting in '88, moving through a major shift in '00, and rolling through to '16.

These states have the lowest percentages of African-American voters in the States of the Old Confederacy, yet White voters tend to have the highest rates of Democratic Presidential support in recent years (Obvious recent exceptions VA, NC, & FL).

We do have '00 precinct results available for every state in the Union, as well as '08 results and '16 results.

I think there is a comprehensive data sheet for '12 results but will need to go back in my archive...

We have key historical data points, although the hardest part would be matching precinct level results from '00/'08 to cities/rural/Uninc areas, in order to see if we can isolate in further detail when cross-referencing against Census Data, where exactly the swings occurred and potentially ask the question "What is the Answer to Life the Universe and Everything"?   

I suspect the number will be 42...

Joking aside---- great work Extreme Republican we have one more state that can be updated on the list.

Question: Have you taken a look at Kentucky lately, since it's in your backyard and all to see what might be the biggest Trump City in Rand Paul and McConnell county.... Wink



Those first numbers were from Chattanooga, not Knoxville.  And, for Clarksville, I didn't get precincts 1-21.

I took the precinct map and included any precinct in the dark gray area (which seems to be the city limits) and deleted the ones outside of it (which didn't really have a consistent number pattern).

https://mcgtn.org:8081/County/election/gis/index.html
Numbers available here: https://mcgtn.org/election/districtspolling-locations
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 14 queries.