Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump

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Conn. city:    9 Bristol
municipality: 14 Bristol

Mass. city: 29   Westfield
municipality: 33 Westfield        

R.I. city: all RI cities voted for HRC  
municipality: 7 Coventry
        
N.H.   city: 5 Rochester
municipality: 4 Derry
        
ME:  5 Auburn

VT   city: 4 Barre
municipality: 11 Barre

N.Y. city: 15   Rome   Oneida
municipality: Brookhaven,   Suffolk County
                    
Penn. city: 10   Altoona   Blair
township: Millcreek twp, Erie County
                    
NJ city: 29 Ocean City   Cape May
municipality: 7   Lakewood twp   Ocean
                              
*IL city: 22   Crystal Lake   McHenry
municipality: 21    Orland Park village (Cook, Will)
township: Orland twp, Cook County

*IL Election results are mainly done by township, and cities don't always correspond. I approximated city results by the whole townships they were in, even if the city does not necessarily make up each whole township.
        
Mich.: 4   Sterling Heights   Macomb
                    
Wisc.: 7   Waukesha   Waukesha County
                    
Minn.: 10   St. Cloud   Stearns

Va.: 1 Virginia Beach

Calif.: 9   Bakersfield   Kern

[nclib]

Thank you.  Orland Park is likely the largest municipality in IL to vote Trump.  Its much larger than Crystal Lake.  In 2012, I would guess Romney won Naperville when you take into account the Will County portion.  Bloomington, Springfield, Arlington Heights and Palatine (certainly) are also 2012 possibilities.

http://www.togetherweteach.com/TWTIC/uscityinfo/13il/ilpopr/13ilpr.htm

I think townships in Illinois are not classified as municipalities, though cities/states/villages are. It is possible that Orland Park village voted for Trump, as I said:

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unless you, as a Illinoisan can be more precise.

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Florida - possibly Jacksonville (1):

Jacksonville takes up the vast majority of Duval County, which Trump won by 1.39%, but its suburbs are quite Republican, so unknown so far.

If not Jax, then probably Hialeah (6).


Oklahoma - likely Oklahoma City (1)

Oregon - probably Medford ( 8 ), assuming this poster checked the 7 largest cities in Oregon:

1.) Medford---- (Pop 78.6k)---- (80% White, 14% Latino)---- MHI ($41.5k/Year)

Wyoming - Cheyenne (1) - Only 1 precinct in Cheyenne's county voted for HRC.

Mississippi - possibly Gulfport (2)

36% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Miss. standards.

if not, then Southaven (3)

Alabama - possibly Huntsville (4)

31% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Ala. standards.

if not, then possibly Tuscaloosa (5) ironically or certainly Hoover (6)

[nclib]

Florida - possibly Jacksonville (1):

Jacksonville takes up the vast majority of Duval County, which Trump won by 1.39%, but its suburbs are quite Republican, so unknown so far.

If not Jax, then probably Hialeah (6).

Decision Desk HQ had a good article about this.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/the-largest-city-to-vote-for-donald-trump/

Jacksonville Results:
Clinton: 195,618
Trump: 195,123

Great find. That also confirms Arizona - Mesa (3).

Also...
Colorado Springs, CO (2) is probable or at least needs to be looked at.

Anchorage, AK (1) is a good chance as it contains 50% of Alaska's pop. (state went 51-37) and rural AK has a good amount of Dems, esp. Alaska natives.

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Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

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Alabama - possibly Huntsville (4)

31% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Ala. standards.

Huntsville would be really close. Obama carried it by 1 in 2008 with the county as a whole going to McCain by 15. In 2016, Trump won the county by 16. Based on the broader trends in last year's election, it wouldn't surprise me if unincorporated Madison County swung to Clinton while Huntsville proper swung to Trump (compared to 2008). The real question is by how much?

Unfortunately, there is no real way to know given the fact that Madison County has since consolidated precincts with no regard for municipal boundaries.

Wow about Huntsville. Next would not be Tuscaloosa after all (actually 41% black), so would be Hoover if not Huntsville.

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Ohio - Parma (7)  49.6%-45.7% Trump

Ohio has a spreadsheet on-line that can be broken down by city.

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For Nebraska looks to be possibly #3 Bellevue, or if not #4 Grand Island....

I ran the precinct numbers for Omaha and it went 47.1 Dem- 44.5 R.

Would be surprised to see #2 Lincoln closer than Omaha...

I'll be taking a look at Sarpy County precinct results here shortly to see if I can confirm #3....

Confirmed Trump by Precinct summation

Nebraska- #3- Bellevue- City- Sarpy County

Pop 51.9k, MHI $ 59.2k,

Race/Ethnicity: 74.3% White, 13.6% Latino, 6.3% Black, 2.8% Mixed, 1.8% Asian

Age: 17% 60+, 30% 50+

Education: 36.3% > HS Diploma, 28% Bachlors Degree or Higher

Occupations/Industries: Skew heavily towards White Collar and Professional Jobs

Election Results:


2012: (42.1 D- 55.4 R)     +13.3 % R
2016: (36.7 D- 53.5 R)     +16.8 % R        (+3.5% R Swing)

I've been a bit curious about Sarpy County for awhile, since based on some precinct work that I did on other threads, it didn't really experience the major swings towards the Democratic candidate in '16, unlike most other upper-income precincts and places in the United States....

Although I didn't look at Bellevue at the time, I did run the numbers for some other communities in the County....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5715360#msg5715360

Did we confirm Lincoln, NE for HRC?

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Maryland:

Clinton clearly won Baltimore (#1), Frederick (#2), Rockville (#3), Gaithersburg (#4), and Bowie (#5).

Trump clearly wins Hagerstown (#6):

Trump - 5249 (48.51%)
Clinton - 4893 (43.72%)

No precinct fuzziness to deal with, clean cut borders only. Maryland confirmed.

Maryland has a lot of well-known communities that are unincorporated CDPs. Would any of them make it if they were incorporated?

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Alabama - possibly Huntsville (4)

31% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Ala. standards.

Huntsville would be really close. Obama carried it by 1 in 2008 with the county as a whole going to McCain by 15. In 2016, Trump won the county by 16. Based on the broader trends in last year's election, it wouldn't surprise me if unincorporated Madison County swung to Clinton while Huntsville proper swung to Trump (compared to 2008). The real question is by how much?

Unfortunately, there is no real way to know given the fact that Madison County has since consolidated precincts with no regard for municipal boundaries.

Wow about Huntsville. Next would not be Tuscaloosa after all (actually 41% black), so would be Hoover if not Huntsville.

I know it's a moot point now that Huntsville voted for Trump, but someone in the 1-A football thread claimed that Tuscaloosa was confirmed for Trump, I doubt this - can you confirm?

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*IL city: 22   Crystal Lake   McHenry
municipality: 21    Orland Park village (Cook, Will)
township: Orland twp, Cook County

*IL Election results are mainly done by township, and cities don't always correspond. I approximated city results by the whole townships they were in, even if the city does not necessarily make up each whole township.

Orland Park village and Orland twp have been confirmed for Trump, while Crystal Lake is likely. Is it worth checking bigger cities/municipalities in IL to see if any voted for Trump?

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Also, did we ever decide how to properly parse out the different types of municipalities up in the Northeast? Did I get the list correct?

Here's what I have for the Northeast, where some towns/townships are more populous than some cities, though cities are often more dense and more Democratic.

Conn. city:    9 Bristol
municipality: 13 Bristol

Mass. city: 29   Westfield
municipality: 33 Westfield         

R.I. city: all RI cities voted for HRC   
municipality: 7 Coventry
         
N.H.   city: 5 Rochester
municipality: 4 Derry
         
ME:  5 Auburn

VT   city: 4 Barre
municipality: 11 Barre

N.Y. city: 15   Rome   Oneida
municipality: Brookhaven,   Suffolk County
                     
Penn. city: 10   Altoona   Blair
township: 14 Millcreek twp, Erie County
                     
NJ city: 29 Ocean City   Cape May
municipality: 7   Lakewood twp   Ocean (though it is still listed on Wiki's list of cities with over 100K)

I see your list includes some cities and some municipalities when they differ. Also, for the Northeast, I used the list given on Wiki which is often 2010, while some Wiki lists for other states use more recent estimates.

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And the largest cities overall to vote for Trump are:

27 Oklahoma City, OK
36 Mesa, AZ
40 Colorado Springs, CO
43 Virginia Beach, VA
47 Tulsa, OK (though unconfirmed)
50 Wichita, KS

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It would be good to figure out the largest raw vote margin for Trump.

It's likely one of these:

And the largest cities overall to vote for Trump are:

27 Oklahoma City, OK
36 Mesa, AZ
40 Colorado Springs, CO
43 Virginia Beach, VA
47 Tulsa, OK (though unconfirmed) [since confirmed]
50 Wichita, KS

OKC - 40K?
Mesa - 28K
Colo. Springs - 36K
Va. Beach - 7K
Tulsa - 9K
Wichita - ?

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Maryland:

Glen Burie (#7) confirmed Trump by precinct summation:

Trump - 9,764 (48.28%)
Clinton - 9,049 (44.75%)

Did you find a link to CDPs by population in Maryland? IIRC, Baltimore County doesn't have any incorporated cities.

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I don't think we need a separate thread for this, but it would be good to have a list of largest city by state to vote for Clinton for the states where the largest city voted for Trump.

That would be...

Virginia - Norfolk (2)
Oklahoma - Norman (3)
Wyoming - Laramie (3)
Montana - Missoula (2)
North Dakota - ?
South Dakota - ?
Kansas - ?
Alaska - ?

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Yes, Derry is bigger than Rochester and I addressed this on the first page along with other states where the largest municipality is not a city.

[nclib]

I don't think we need a separate thread for this, but it would be good to have a list of largest city by state to vote for Clinton for the states where the largest city voted for Trump.

That would be...

Virginia - Norfolk (2)
Oklahoma - Norman (3)
Wyoming - Laramie (3)
Montana - Missoula (2)
North Dakota - ?
South Dakota - ?
Kansas - ?
Alaska - ?

I'm pretty sure Kansas is Overland Park (#2), I don't think we need to check the precincts for that, given how close the county overall was, and how most of the Republican areas are outside of the city limits.


North Dakota is New Town / neetuhčipiriínu (#20). Clinton got 68.8% to Trump's 20.0%. A reservation town.

South Dakota is Vermillion / Waséoyuze (#11). A reservation town - all precincts went Clinton.

Alaska is Juneau (#3). Non-postal votes are Clinton: 4272 (49.8%) to Trump 3161 (36.8%) I don't think postal votes will overturn this result.

Vermilion is not a reservation town. It is majority white and is home of the University of South Dakota.

For your state capitals list, you left off Kansas and Vermont. Topeka, KS is unknown and needs to be precinct checked, and Montpelier, VT of course went Democratic.

Also, Annapolis, MD was thought to go Repub on the football cities thread, though I personally doubt it based on 2008 results, and I haven't seen numbers for Helena, MT.

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Here are the 15 most dense cities (over 100,000) to vote for Trump:

94   Hialeah    Florida   10,995 / sq. mi.
114   Huntington Beach    California   7,459
293   El Cajon    California   7,156
243   Clearwater    Florida   4,415
279   Clovis    California   4,404
86   Glendale    Arizona   4,161
305   Lakewood    New Jersey   4,079
69   Plano    Texas   3,990
204   Sterling Heights    Michigan   3,628
307   Clinton    Michigan   3,573
166   Pasadena    Texas   3,525
248   West Jordan    Utah   3,520
36   Mesa    Arizona   3,514
208   Visalia    California      3,495
93   Gilbert    Arizona      3,487

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Here are the 15 most dense cities (over 100,000) to vote for Trump:

94   Hialeah    Florida   10,995 / sq. mi.
114   Huntington Beach    California   7,459
293   El Cajon    California   7,156
243   Clearwater    Florida   4,415
279   Clovis    California   4,404
86   Glendale    Arizona   4,161
305   Lakewood    New Jersey   4,079
69   Plano    Texas   3,990
268   Centennial    Colorado   3,727 maybe
204   Sterling Heights    Michigan   3,628
247   Westminster    Colorado   3,592 maybe
307   Clinton    Michigan   3,573
166   Pasadena    Texas   3,525
248   West Jordan    Utah   3,520
36   Mesa    Arizona   3,514

It seems quite likely that we were working on these posts at the same time, but I've confirmed that Centennial and Westminster went Hillary.

OK. Edited.

[nclib]

Here are the 15 most dense cities (over 100,000) to vote for Trump:

94   Hialeah    Florida   10,995 / sq. mi.
114   Huntington Beach    California   7,459
293   El Cajon    California   7,156
243   Clearwater    Florida   4,415
279   Clovis    California   4,404
86   Glendale    Arizona   4,161
305   Lakewood    New Jersey   4,079
69   Plano    Texas   3,990
204   Sterling Heights    Michigan   3,628
307   Clinton    Michigan   3,573
166   Pasadena    Texas   3,525
248   West Jordan    Utah   3,520
36   Mesa    Arizona   3,514
208   Visalia    California      3,495
93   Gilbert    Arizona      3,487

Anyone know more info about why these cities vote that way? I know Hialeah is Cuban, Lakewood is Orthodox Jewish, West Jordan is Mormon, as is Mesa to a lesser extent.

All of these, with the exception of Visalia, are not center cities. These are the densest center cities (over 100K) to vote for Trump:

208   Visalia    California      3,495
238   Provo    Utah   2,803 (yes, technically in Salt Lake metro, but Provo probably belongs on this list)
234   Odessa    Texas   2,608
53   Bakersfield    California   2,529
232   Evansville    Indiana   2,526
265   Billings    Montana   2,525
229   Fargo     North Dakota   2,450
50   Wichita    Kansas   2,431
76   Fort Wayne    Indiana   2,391
40   Colorado Springs    Colorado   2,378