Largest city (or municipality) in each state to vote for Trump

[NOVA Green]

Florida - possibly Jacksonville (1):

Jacksonville takes up the vast majority of Duval County, which Trump won by 1.39%, but its suburbs are quite Republican, so unknown so far.

If not Jax, then probably Hialeah (6).


Oklahoma - likely Oklahoma City (1)

Oregon - probably Medford ( 8 ), assuming this poster checked the 7 largest cities in Oregon:

1.) Medford---- (Pop 78.6k)---- (80% White, 14% Latino)---- MHI ($41.5k/Year)

[/b]

Wyoming - Cheyenne (1) - Only 1 precinct in Cheyenne's county voted for HRC.

Mississippi - possibly Gulfport (2)

36% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Miss. standards.

if not, then Southaven (3)

Alabama - possibly Huntsville (4)

31% black and has a sizeable number of white HRC voters by Ala. standards.

if not, then possibly Tuscaloosa (5) ironically or certainly Hoover (6)

Yeah of little faith young Jedi....

Oregon Top Ten Cities 2016----

1.) Portland- (78-13 D)      +65 % D Margin

2.) Eugene-  (66-23 D)      +43% D Margin

3.) Salem-   (50-39 D)       +11% D Margin

4.) Gresham- (49-39 D)     +10% D Margin

5.) Hillsboro- (55-32 D)     +23% D Margin

6.) Beaverton- (63-25 D)   +38% D Margin

7.) Bend- (52-36 D)          +16% D Margin

8.) Medford- (39-51 R)      +12% R Margin

9.) Springfield-  (47-40 D)-    +7% D Margin

10.) Corvallis- Shoot--- can't believe I dropped the numbers on this City, but next to Portland it is 2nd on the rank of Oregon cities in the '16 Dem- Rep vote margins (Thinking it was something like 67-19 D in '16).

To confirm Medford was the only Top Ten City to Oregon to vote for DJT where he was able to bag an amazing 51% of the City Vote....  

[NOVA Green]

Maine:

#5 Auburn--- Pop 23.0k- MHI $ 45.4k-

91.1% White, 16% (65+ yrs), 39.7% French/French-Canadian Ancestry, 24% Bachelors or Higher

45.6% D- 45.9% R     ( +0.3% R)

[NOVA Green]

Here are a few more pieces of low hanging fruit from New England...

New Hampshire:

#5: Rochester- Pop 29.8k- MHI $ 49.0k

94.2% White, 16% 65+ Yrs, 27% French/French-Canadian Ancestry, 16.4% Mfg Sector, 20% Bachelors or Higher Degree

2016: 41.3% D- 51.3% R    (+10.0% R)    2012: (51.5 D- 46.8 R)      +14.7% R Swing

Vermont:

#5: Barre-  Pop 9.0k- MHI $ 39.5k

95.1% White, 17% 65+ Yrs, 32% French/French-Canadian Ancestry, 21% Bachelor Degree or Higher

2016: (42.2 D- 44.7 R)   + 2.5% R     2012: (54.2 D- 44.2 R)     +12.5% R Swing

Massachusetts:

#32: Westfield- Pop 41.2k- MHI $ 59.6k

86.6% White, 7.6% Latino, 13% 65+, 22.9% Irish/ 13.1% Italian Ancestry, 14.2% Mfg, 30% Bachelors or Higher

2016: (43.4 D- 47.6 R)  + 4.2% R     2012: (51.9 D- 46.0 R)      +10.1% R Swing

Rhode Island:

Coventry Town- Pop 33.7k- MHI $ 52.0k

97.6% White; 13% 65+ Yrs;

2016: (40.2 D- 52.5 R)    +12.3% R;   2012- (55.3 D- 42.2 R)  +13.1% D     +25.4% R Swing

Connecticut:

#11: Bristol-  Pop 60.5k- MHI $ 57.6k

82.6% White, 10.2% Latino, 3.2% Black; 16% 65+ Yrs, 21.3% Italian/ 24% French & French-Canadian/ 17% Irish Ancestry; 15.5% Mfg, 23% Bachelors or Higher

2016: (47.3 D- 48.2 R)   +0.9% R;  2012: (57.9 D- 41.0 R)  + 16.9% D    +17.8% R Swing

[NOVA Green]

Kansas: most likely Wichita (1)
What's fascinating is how Wichita is a microcosm. Suburban areas within the city swung heavily to Hillary while the south side, working class and with a good portion of manufacturing workers, swung hard to Trump. Combine that with lower Dem turnout in Black and Hispanic areas. Vote totals in some Hispanic precincts rose as they swung away from Dems. Black turnout collapsed though.

Interesting summary....

Wichita confirmed for Kansas.

I ran the '16 precinct file for Sedgwick County and it looks like Wichita accounted for 72% of the County vote and went (40.7 D- 49.9 R)      +9.2% R

I have the '12 results by precinct for Kansas, but because of the size of the file it will be a bit of a pain to convert from a text based file format to an Excel spreadsheet to look at the '12 numbers for Wichita and '12 > '16 Presidential Swing. If you're really interested I wouldn't mind tackling that with a little bit of free time.

[NOVA Green]

Parsing out the precincts, I can confirm that Trump won Springfield, Missouri in Greene County.

It is rather evident that Trump lost Kansas City (no need to check there). He lost #2 St. Louis, leaving #3 Springfield.

Yup... ran the 2016 precinct numbers for Springfield, took me almost 45 minutes trying to convert a text based file format into Excel, so don't plan on repeating that right now for '12 results....

Springfield, MO

2016: (36.1 D- 57.1 R)      +21.0% R

***NOTE: This does not include absentee results ***

Since Greene County lumps them into a giant bucket for the whole county, but still absentees accounted for 12.0% of the County Vote (37.2 D- 58.6 R). Springfield accounted for about 63% of the Non-Absentee County vote. Areas outside of Springfield City limits went (28-66 R).... Needless to say absentees voted both more Democratic than both the City of Springfield and County at large, and frustratingly enough we can't break down the numbers by precinct/municipality, so Springfield was likely more like a 38/39 D vs 54-55 R).

Also Greene County consolidates it's WI votes which were 576 total, not broken down by precinct, so there will be some minor shifts of fractions of % away from all candidates on the ballot to reflect the McMullen vote.

Edit: Here's an interesting article from the newspaper in Springfield RE '16 GE PRES results

http://www.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/19/four-maps-explain-how-greene-county-missouri-voted-president-trump-clinton/93644010/

[NOVA Green]

So unless I am mistaken, it looks like the research project shows the following:

Red: Confirmed
Pink: Likely but not confirmed

Leaving Texas out of the map for the moment, since we haven't seen any real numbers or anyone that has pulled the % yet from the State.

[NOVA Green]

West Virginia should be Charleston. There just aren't that many Hillary precincts in that entire state

West Virginia should be Charleston. There just aren't that many Hillary precincts in that entire state

Not to reignite the whole "West Virginia Atlas Wars" that go back to the '08 Democratic Primary, and I believe even some strong words going back to '04 regarding the State, I'm not completely sold on Charleston being a confirmed Trump win...

So basically Charleston accounts for roughly 27% of the Kanawha County votes....

It might seem counter-intuitive that it would even be a question if Trump won Charleston, when he won the County by overall by slightly over 20%....

I pulled the '16 precinct numbers for the County, and what really stood out was the insane polarized numbers in a County that Trump won by 20%.

We see HRC winning a significant number of extremely large precincts by 80-20 or 65-30, and Trump winning a significant % of precincts with 70% of the vote.

Something tells me the HRC precincts were most likely concentrated within Charleston and not in rural surrounding areas....

Now, I love all of the great precinct mapping that RI has done for all 50 States in the '16 GE, but unfortunately it isn't designed to subtotal results by municipality, which is why I prefer "confirmed official totals" for this project.

Still, if you look at the Giant Red spot in the SW corner of the map, it appears to overlap fairly closely to the City limits of Charleston....

I would suggest clicking on the WV map, opening it up in a new window and zooming in to the highest resolution possible, and honestly I would be surprised if HRC lost Charleston in '16.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252386.msg5458089#msg5458089

Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

[NOVA Green]

Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

Haven't run the numbers yet... been about two years since "I waltzed across Texas", but fortunately Texas (Believe it or not) actually has some pretty accessible precinct level data and mapping for the largest counties in the Great State....

I found all sorts of precinct results from Texas for a ton of counties, as part of a completely separate topic on another thread that I could drill down to City level results, with a little bit of Lone Star Beer and some True Grit....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5564689#msg5564689

So we know that precinct level results are available for Tarrant County (Fort Worth), Collin County (Plano), and also for Nueces County (Corpus Christi)....

So, as the old saying goes "everything is bigger in Texas", and that naturally includes precinct level data....

Honestly, I would love to take a look at this in greater detail, but unfortunately will likely need to wait until this weekend, since I need to get up early over the next few days to work on the Assembly Line.

Now, here are potentially a few musical soundtracks for anyone interested in some background songs about Texas while they research this project....

I would strongly suggest that if you like the artist on any links below that you purchase their CDs or songs in whatever musical format of your preference, as I have over the years, since being a musician involves a ton of blood, sweat and tears, and these are all working artists that allow some of their songs to be shared on Youtube, in the hopes that some of y'all might like the sound and pay the artist for their effort.

Gary Nunn: "What I Like about Texas"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGukLuXzH1E

George Strait: "Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jta1Gz9UnfA

Pat Green: "Songs About Texas"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z242kzdYs3A

Willie Nelson & Merle Haggard: "Ballad of Poncho and Lefty"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvdmxszsDM8

Johnny Rodriguez: "Corpus Christi Bay"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdivjLBxye8

Ok--- this is more the "Old Skool" Anglo County songs, but with the Tex-Mex overlap, while meanwhile H-Town (Houston) has become a National Hip-Hop Center that has arguably surpassed Atlanta or New Orleans as the Capitol of Southern Hip-Hop.

I can pull some artists up if anyone is interested, but Texas is simply so Big with a ton of large Metro areas, so more familiar with Houston than Dallas/Fort Worth, let alone San Antonio or Austin Hip-Hop....

Set up a playlist, roll some numbers, be prepared to spend at least 3-4 hours at a minimum on the project, but yeah start with #5 Forth Worth, #7 Arlington, # 8 Corpus, #9 Plano....

Tim Turner might have just hit the nail on the head of the heartbeat of Trump supporters in TX, but even Plano might be an iffy bet for the top Trump town in Tejas...

[NOVA Green]

Thoughts or maps from anyone closer to the action or data when it comes to WV?

My really rough, back-of the-envelope calculation for the city of Charleston, WV is Clinton 10,879 to Trump's 8,787.

This is a really rough estimate, though - as I could have missed or added some precincts to the city, and am basing precinct numbers on a 2017 map. So I could be wrong.

Excellent work and jives with RI's precinct map and raw county level precinct returns that I pulled....

Looks like Clinton won Charleston by roughly 55-45 of the two Party Vote Share... Curious about 3rd Party votes in the City....

[NOVA Green]

If Charleston went to Clinton, then did she also win #2 Huntington?

No--- It looks like Huntington went Trump in '16 by a plurality.

Unfortunately there is not a precinct map available for the County, and it doesn't appear that own our own GiS precinct mapping expert RI was able to break this County down to precinct level mapping results.

Still, I ran the '16 GE Pres precinct numbers for Cabell County, and based upon precinct location it appears that precincts #10-40 are located within the City limits....

If we use those numbers:

Clinton: 7,346 (43.9%)- Trump (48.1%)- Johnson (4.1%)- Write-Ins/Bernie (1.7%), Mountain Party (!!!) 1.6%, Constitutionalists--- remainder.   Trump +4.2%.

Unless anyone has other data, it appears that # 2 Huntington wins the blue ribbon prize for top Trump City by population in WV.

[NOVA Green]

Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So, since it's my weekend working 4x10s, spent a few hours looking at Tarrant County Texas...

Not just because of this thread, but also as someone who recently lived four years in Texas, I find the state politically fascinating, and other than life circumstances, there's a good chance that I would be a retiree somewhere in the Gulf Coast or the Hill Country regions.

Listening to George Strait "Does Fort Worth Ever Cross Your Mind" as I type these few words, and basically set Youtube on a George Strait marathon...

So I ran the numbers from Fort Worth precincts in Tarrant County.... It was a bit more complicated than I had expected.... although Texas is a great state, and for many of the large Metro Counties the software packages they use at County Level elections allow one to pull text and import into an Excel spreadsheet.

Then, it should be a simple exercise of coding precincts to match municipalities, correct?

So, I went through the '15 municipal election results from Tarrant to identify precincts that are part of cities/municipalities and coded every precinct associated with places from Fort Worth, Arlington, all the way to Flower Mound.

Based upon these numbers it looks like Clinton won the Tarrant County part of Fort Worth by           ( 58.8 D-  36.8 R)    +20.0% D.

I was amazed and shocked to see how Democratic the City of Fort Worth appears to be....

Still, the problem here is not only the smattering of Fort Worth precincts in neighboring counties (Which was a known variable going into the data analysis), but also were there really only ~75k votes from Fort Worth in Tarrant County?

So, I looked for precinct consolidations and similar variables, and couldn't identify anything publicly available. Any of our Atlasians from Tejas have explanations for the extremely small voter participation level from Fort Worth based upon the '16 numbers I'm seeing?

Sure, I lived almost five years in Texas and get that Fort Worth is 35% Latino, 19% African-American, and only 40% Anglo, so that might explain decreased turnout and the like....

Still, anyways you look at it, the data appears to support the argument that Fort Worth was not Trump's largest City in Tejas.

[NOVA Green]

Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

[NOVA Green]

Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

40,000 votes is rather small for a city of almost 400,000.  Are you sure those numbers are correct? 

No-- absolutely 100% convinced that many of the Tarrrant County numbers are a bit sketch...

Still, voter turnout tends to be much lower in VaP than most states in our great nation, and if these Arlington numbers are totally off the map, then so are the numbers from Fort Worth.

Wish I could confirm '16 GE results within the DFW Metro based upon precinct level data....

Still, voter turnout in Texas is generally fairly low, even in the wealthy Anglo 'Burbs of the the large Metro areas in Texas, so def something to keep an eye on, since changing demographics are increasingly moving Texas into a swing state categlry

[NOVA Green]

So the new map looks something like the following?

Red Confirmed, Pink/Fuscia likely...

[NOVA Green]

North Dakota....

#1 Fargo confirmed for Trump (43.0% D- 44.7% R- 12.4% Misc)

Looks like Fargo will likely flip in '20 w/o HRC leading the Dem ticket, especially when looking at 3rd Party voting in what is a fairly Liberal Government and College town in ND.

[NOVA Green]

Ran the precinct numbers for Minnehaha County, South Dakota.

Confirmed Trump.

#1 Sioux Falls--- (42.5% D- 50.1% R)

Numbers from the largest cities in both ND and SD don't look good for Dem Pres candidates, considering the only way to make both states somewhat competitive are to rack up 10-15% margins in Fargo and Sioux Falls, in order to create large enough vote margins to cover the gap from heavily Republican precincts in the Western parts of the State(s).

[NOVA Green]

Would Plano be the biggest city to vote for Trump?

Nationally or in Texas? If the former, no, that was OKC. In Texas, has anyone checked Plano, as well as Arlington or Corpus Christi?

So the precincts of Arlington located within Tarrant County appear to have narrowly voted Clinton '16...

Trump- 17,218 (46.9%),   Clinton 17,397 (47.4%)

Next stop, will take a look at Corpus Chris, unless someone has data on Fort Worth or Arlington that indicates other than the data that I found.

40,000 votes is rather small for a city of almost 400,000.  Are you sure those numbers are correct? 

No--- I'm not sure, which is part of the reason I'm still not confident on numbers for Fort Worth as well.

1.) If we use the '15 Statistical Atlas numbers for Arlington we have about 25k residents in Dallas County with the overwhelming majority in Tarrant County.

2.) If we code by municipality and use '15 municipal results for Arlington Precincts in Tarrant, we get the 47.4% D- 46.9% R numbers....   Still 3.7k 3rd Party and 34.6k Dem/Rep seems a bit low.

3.) Still, unless precinct boundaries changed dramatically between '15 and '16, the Tarrant County numbers look decent for both Fort Worth and Arlington in respective Trump/Clinton votes by precinct/municipality.

4.) Numbers definitely look odd, even considering the generally abysmal VAP turnout rate in Texas compared to almost any other state in the Union....

Still 28% of Arlington is < 18 Yrs Old, and additional 27% is 18-35 Yrs....

The numbers are even more lopsided in Fort Worth....

So we have two of the largest cities in Texas, as well as some of the larger cities in the US that are essentially overwhelmingly dominated by a population under the age of 35 Yrs....

5.) So yes there is a chance that precinct boundaries shifted between '15 and '16 in Tarrant County, although I haven't seen any data online to support that. Sure, there are a small number of precincts in Fort Worth and Arlington that stretch over County lines, so potentially Trump might have narrowly won Arlington once we add the Dallas County precincts into the mix, but Fort Worth definitely is voted off the Island....

6.) The more one looks at these numbers, the more questionable the Republican electoral coalition looks like in Texas..... Harris County moving Hard D, Fort Bend County flips, and now it looks like Tarrant County will likely flip within the next few Pres Election cycles as well.

Houston we have a problem....

[NOVA Green]

So Updated Map might look something like the follwoing?



Red- Confirmed based upon precinct level data, or other publicaly available sources.

Purple= States where precinct level data indicates an overwhelming vote w/o the necessity of precinct level analysis.

Pink/Fuscia= States where it appears that precinct level/municipal data tends to support the largest city by County, although data might be a bit "mushy"

Gray: States where there are some reasonable arguments and data, but lack of research that yet drills down to definitive level of "Pink" category.

White: States where we might have seen some hypotheses (Or not w/o any real supporting evidence to date).

Next category would be creating confirmed findings, but I think the map at least shows us where we can collectively try to hash the data out in more detail.

Plus, we all like maps...

[NOVA Green]

Trump definitely lost Nashville and Memphis and definitely won Franklin (#7).  He likely won Clarksville and Murfreesboro (#'s 5 and 6) too, but I am not quite sure on Knoxville (#3) and Chattanooga (#4).  I might be able to run those numbers when I have some time!

Hey ExtemeConservative----   Good to see you around these parts!   

Honestly IMHO the best poster from the Volunteer State when it comes to both analysis and discussion of municipal level analysis of Tennessee politics.

Brief soundtrack for anyone wanting to look at Tennessee municipal results, considering that regardless of whatever app one has, it will take quite a bit of time to convert data into an Excel spreadsheet, code precincts by municipality....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWwicgg0SQI

So, took a look at Knoxville and it appears to be HRC country....

From what I saw after cross-referencing the precinct data against precinct maps available on the County Website it looks like Precincts # 1-41 are located within the City of Knoxville, as well as Precinct 44 (Deanne Hill Rec Ctr).

If this precinct level coding is correct it would appear the results are the following"

HRC: 29,845 (49.9%)----   Trump 25,661 (42.9%)--- Other 7.2%.......    Dem (+7.0%)

Unless somehow precinct boundaries shifted or I missed something on a huge precincts, it appears that we need to move down to the next city on the list....

@ ExtremeRepublican.... Are we in alignment???

[NOVA Green]

If my boundaries are right, I have Chattanooga at 54.1 to 41.0 for Hillary Clinton.  I guess the rest of the county was overwhelmingly Republican, since Trump won the county 55-39 even though the City of Chattanooga is the majority of the county (at least by number of precincts).

OK, according to the best precinct data I could find, the answer is #5 Clarksville, which Trump won 49.4 to 44.4.

So, I think we both agree that Clinton won Knoxville based upon our own reviews analysis of precinct level election results....

However, our numbers diverge considerably, so I was curious what you were running as Knoxville numbers....

One complicating factor is that we do have  a considerable number of split-precincts that do not fall completely within City limits....

For the sake of my numbers I included precincts #1-51 as Knoxville, (Note that my when I posted yesterday I inadvertently and incorrectly used my Excel Row numbers and referenced them as precinct numbers, so my City subtotal numbers are still the same) since the entire precinct or overwhelming majority of the precinct fell within Knoxville City limits, as per this precinct map...

http://comptroller.tn.gov/repository/LG/DistrictMaps/Knox/Precinct%20Maps/Current%20Voter%20Precinct%20Map.pdf

My precinct level numbers exported to a spreadsheet from another source (Easier conversion from Text to Column) shows the same raw vote subtotals by candidate for the County....

There was only one other precinct not included in my numbers that Clinton carried was 68E- East Cedar Bluff....

So, my question for you, is there additional information out there that identifies the "split-precinct areas", did the City limit boundaries change between the Nov '16 election and '17 "Current Precinct Map" from Know County that could explain the discrepancy?

So, Clarksville appears be confirmed for TN, and that you ran the County numbers from Precincts #1-21 in Montgomery County....

Much of the population of Clarksville is closely tied to two neighboring large US Military bases...

Interestingly enough the population of Clarksville (23.1%) is much more African-American than Knoxville (16.9%).... and statistically only 60.5% Anglo in Population...

So it appears that the Anglo/ "White" population of Knoxville are much more Democratic than in Clarksville.... Could be a weird outliar as well though caused by a relatively transitional population, many of whom vote within other political jurisdictions as military families, and unfortunately because of a mixture of restrictive state voting right policies, combined with constant shifts in deployment patterns while wearing the American flag patch in the service of our nation, voter turnout among military families is significantly lower than the national average. This is obviously a national disgrace that our election system does not allow Military Families easy access to voting in many states (As is also the case with College Students moving across State Lines as wel)

OT: I believe there should be an individual thread devoted to KY, TN, and AR (We can leave WV aside potentially to avoid Atlas excessively heated debates that go back over 10 years), since these areas appear to be an interesting case study in electoral shifts among White/Anglo voters when one starts to examine election results in deeper detail starting in '88, moving through a major shift in '00, and rolling through to '16.

These states have the lowest percentages of African-American voters in the States of the Old Confederacy, yet White voters tend to have the highest rates of Democratic Presidential support in recent years (Obvious recent exceptions VA, NC, & FL).

We do have '00 precinct results available for every state in the Union, as well as '08 results and '16 results.

I think there is a comprehensive data sheet for '12 results but will need to go back in my archive...

We have key historical data points, although the hardest part would be matching precinct level results from '00/'08 to cities/rural/Uninc areas, in order to see if we can isolate in further detail when cross-referencing against Census Data, where exactly the swings occurred and potentially ask the question "What is the Answer to Life the Universe and Everything"?   

I suspect the number will be 42...

Joking aside---- great work Extreme Republican we have one more state that can be updated on the list.

Question: Have you taken a look at Kentucky lately, since it's in your backyard and all to see what might be the biggest Trump City in Rand Paul and McConnell county....

[NOVA Green]

Those first numbers were from Chattanooga, not Knoxville.  And, for Clarksville, I didn't get precincts 1-21.

I took the precinct map and included any precinct in the dark gray area (which seems to be the city limits) and deleted the ones outside of it (which didn't really have a consistent number pattern).

https://mcgtn.org:8081/County/election/gis/index.html
Numbers available here: https://mcgtn.org/election/districtspolling-locations
[/quote]

Bolded relevant section of quote....

So apparently my inability to correctly read city names accounts for the variance in the two numbers!   

You taken a look at Kentucky perchance?

[NOVA Green]

In Nevada, it is either #2 Henderson (probably not), #5 Sparks, #6 Carson City, or definitely #7 Fernley.

Henderson, Nevada appears confirmed for Trump....

2016: 54,672 Trump (49.8%), 47.898 Clinton (43.7%)     +6.1% R

Bonus data using the same precincts for 2012:

2012: 49,285 Romney (50.2%), 47,084 Obama (48.0%)   + 2.2% R

2012 > 2016 Swing:    +3.9% R

Interestingly enough this appears to be one of the few places in the US where a relatively wealthy community swing towards Trump, although granted Trump performed worse than Romney in terms of total % of the City vote.

This subject is worthy of further investigation elsewhere on Atlas, but Henderson has an MHI of $ 64.5k, making it one of the wealthier "places" within Nevada if one uses the statisticalatlas Household Income by place filter on their website....

23% of the population is 60+ and 37% is 55+  so it skews a bit older, and Millennials are massively underrepresented within the City compared to Statewide numbers.

Race/Ethnicity: 69.0% Anglo/White, 13.4% Latino, 7.9% Asian, 5.7% Black, 3.0% Mixed.

Note: Voters 55+ are 79% Anglo/White

Occupations skew heavily towards Professional White Collar jobs.

Educational attainment is relatively high with 38.5% having a degree greater than an HS Diploma, with a full 30% of the population having a Bachelors Degree or higher....

It might be interesting to break the City down further by precinct to see where the swings happened between '12 and '16 to test some of the key variables that appear to have played a significant role nationally in the 2016 General Election:

Household Income / Educational Attainment
Age
Race/Ethnicity
Turnout Levels

[NOVA Green]

Mississippi

Trump narrowly wins Gulfport (#2). Clinton evidently won Jackson (#1)

Again we have precincts bleeding into neighboring municipalities (and these are all almost entirely Trump precincts). Excluding all precincts but the ones almost entirely within the city boundaries:

Trump - 10,785 (49.01%)
Clinton - 10,592 (48.13%)

There doesn't appear to be any at-large absentee / mail-in precincts.

Wow!  Great work pulling these results together by precinct--- since I know from personal knowledge how time intensive it can be trying to tie precinct level data into municipal results....

Gulfport is close enough that those split precincts might deserve a closer examination, but it certainly looks like the City is an extremely likely Trump win, since you already went in and looked at the split precincts and how they voted.

Awesome!

[NOVA Green]

So since we have multiple state updates today here's an updated map that shows the results from our crowd-sourcing project...



Red= Confirmed using publicly available and verifiable data sources

Purple= Extremely likely using publicly available sources, but still potentially a few items that need to be looked at because of extremely close election results that include split-precincts, raw data looked at, etc...

Pink/Fuscia= Likely/Probable

Gray= Suggested/Mooted by posters with local background knowledge but data hasn't been examined in a systematic pattern.

Let me know if the map color coding needs to be revised, since this is just one person's opinion, and you know what they say about opinions.....

Reagente, my apologies for not including Hawaii, since if Trump's largest City in Hawaii was Wheeler AFB CDP where 29 people voted for the two major party candidates, that would be insanely mind boggling, even considering how heavily Hawaii has tended to vote for Democratic GE candidates in recent years....

[NOVA Green]

Reagente, my apologies for not including Hawaii, since if Trump's largest City in Hawaii was Wheeler AFB CDP where 29 people voted for the two major party candidates, that would be insanely mind boggling, even considering how heavily Hawaii has tended to vote for Democratic GE candidates in recent years....

Yeah, only 3 precincts in Hawaii went Trump.

Well, there is a precinct (Prec 47-03) with multiple CDPs, and part of another (Laie) with larger populations than Wheeler AFB that as a whole went Trump, the question is how we want to parse that out.

I wonder if we'd be able to infer that the heavily LDS community of Laie went Trump (home of BYU-Hawaii). Although it is split between two precincts (and include many other communities are included within both precincts), the first went Trump by 16%, and the second went Clinton by 10%. Which is anomalously good for that part of Hawaii.

Some food for thought on that matter is that Romney won the first precinct by 34%, and lost the second precinct by only 3% in 2012. It's the only part of Hawaii to swing strongly to Clinton

Damn you're good!

I can't speak for the rest of the posters and followers on the thread, but military precincts are tricky as are college campuses, considering that a vast majority of these population/voters tend to be <25 Yrs and vote remotely in whatever State/County/City/Precinct....

My though would be we take the largest Trump precinct in Hawaii by Total Votes (TV) and call it the biggest Trump win by place in Hawaii....

What are the exact vote totals for those two precincts near BYU- Laie campus?

Thoughts from other posters?