TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Technocracy Timmy]

We’re talking about a candidate who swept every county in 2006 and won by 39 points in said state, when demographics were slightly better for Dems but still very unfavorable. He has the adventage of being able to tap into a reservoir of residual goodwill/nostalgia and is uniquely suited to appeal to high propensity and center-right voters who are fine with Bill Lee but just can’t bring themselves to vote for a "shrill extremist/lunatic" over their Phil Bredesen.

I guess we’ll see on Tuesday, but I guarantee you if Blackburn actually wins by double digits on election night, then Democrats will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race.

As I stated before, gubernatorials are VERY different from federal elections. Why did a Democratic Governor get elected in a Trump+42 state in 2016 by 7 points? (Justice switched to Republican later but the point stands lol) while that same year a Hillary+27 state (with 5% Bernie write ins) voted 7 points for their Republican Governor (Vermont).

You can’t assume that a governor’s race from 2006 will correlate even remotely to a federal race in 2018. TN even elected a Republican to the senate while voting 39 points for Bredesen that very same year.

If that doesn’t prove to you that gubernatorial races are vastly different than federal races then IDK what will.

[libertpaulian]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

We’re talking about a candidate who swept every county in 2006 and won by 39 points in said state, when demographics were slightly better for Dems but still very unfavorable. He has the adventage of being able to tap into a reservoir of residual goodwill/nostalgia and is uniquely suited to appeal to high propensity and center-right voters who are fine with Bill Lee but just can’t bring themselves to vote for a "shrill extremist/lunatic" over their Phil Bredesen.

I guess we’ll see on Tuesday, but I guarantee you if Blackburn actually wins by double digits on election night, then Democrats will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race.

Evan Bayh swept nearly every county in 2004.  He lost by a landslide in 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

Evan Bayh also ran against a much stronger opponent in a Republican wave year, and Bredesen doesn’t have Bayh's lobbyist/residency issues that could be used against him in attack ads. Not the best comparison, to say least.

[Skunk]

Bredesen will likely lose but it's not because he ran a pretty bad campaign like Bayh, it's just that Tennessee is too red and evangelical. Bredesen was still the best chance for Democrats to win here.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Bredesen will likely lose but it's not because he ran a pretty bad campaign like Bayh, it's just that Tennessee is too red and evangelical. Bredesen was still the best chance for Democrats to win here.

[libertpaulian]

Evan Bayh also ran against a much stronger opponent in a Republican wave year, and Bredesen doesn’t have Bayh's lobbyist/residency issues that could be used against him in attack ads. Not the best comparison, to say least.

In 2004?  lol, Marvin Scott was a total joke candidate who makes Alan Keyes look like an unbeatable titan.

[SCNCmod]

The one thing that gives me hope for Bredesen... is I still go back to not being able to imagine Marsha Blackburn being elected to Senate- especially against a very popular and trusted 2 term governor who had hugely successful achievements that many still remember.  He is literally the antithesis to Blackburn.  I'm hoping enough people- especially undecided voters, will end up pulling the lever so-to-speak for the comfortable old shoe they know and trust.

Also- he was a Hugely popular Mayor of Nashville for 8 years- so I'm hoping he over-performs in a big way in Nashville.

[MT Treasurer]

Evan Bayh also ran against a much stronger opponent in a Republican wave year, and Bredesen doesn’t have Bayh's lobbyist/residency issues that could be used against him in attack ads. Not the best comparison, to say least.

In 2004?  lol, Marvin Scott was a total joke candidate who makes Alan Keyes look like an unbeatable titan.

2016, obviously.

[IceSpear]

The one thing that gives me hope for Bredesen... is I still go back to not being able to imagine Marsha Blackburn being elected to Senate

You're letting your liberal bias cloud your objectivity. A majority of Tennessee voters are perfectly fine with Marsha Blackburn being elected to the Senate. They just voted for the pussygrabber by 28 points, and she wins in a landslide in her district consistently (yes, the district is more Republican than Tennessee as a whole, but still.)

[SCNCmod]

What effect- if any- will the TN congressional elections have on the Senate race... ie- do Dems have strong candidates in all of the races to help turn out voters, etc

[Brittain33]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

[IceSpear]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump is a big time extrovert and narcissist who loves doing rallies and traveling across the country to hear adoring fans flock to him as he bashes all the people on his “not very nice” list. This is what fuels him even more than Diet Coke. The amazing thing about Trump is how often people attribute 4D chess strategy to him when 9 times out of 10 he’s just doing what makes him feel good.

Also what Icespear said right above me lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump is a big time extrovert and narcissist who loves doing rallies and traveling across the country to hear adoring fans flock to him as he bashes all the people on his “not very nice” list. This is what fuels him even more than Diet Coke. The amazing thing about Trump is how often people attribute 4D chess strategy to him when 9 times out of 10 he’s just doing what makes him feel good.

Also what Icespear said right above me lol.

Trump may be playing 4D Chess, but unfortunately for him it's a Bridge tournament.

[TomC]

What effect- if any- will the TN congressional elections have on the Senate race... ie- do Dems have strong candidates in all of the races to help turn out voters, etc

In 2, 3, 4, and 7, the candidates are decent and trying hard. They have no hope of winning, but, yes, they are working it hard. Many more state house candidates too.

[Adam Griffin]

We've had several polls showing Lee basically at +10 over the past week: I find it hard to believe that Dean will perform anywhere nearly as well as Bredesen. If Dean's getting into the low-to-mid 40s, I don't see how Bredesen loses by more than 5.

[wbrocks67]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

Trump hasn't been to those states in weeks.

[UWS]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

Trump hasn't been to those states in weeks.

Trump hasn’t been in New Jersey for weeks and yet it is still competitive.

[ON Progressive]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

Trump hasn't been to those states in weeks.

Trump hasn’t been in New Jersey for weeks and yet it is still competitive.

NJ isn’t competitive. Only delusional hacks think that.

[TheSaint250]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

Trump hasn't been to those states in weeks.

Trump hasn’t been in New Jersey for weeks and yet it is still competitive.

NJ isn’t competitive. Only delusional hacks think that.

Thank the delusional hacks for that.

[Lord Admirale]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

Trump hasn't been to those states in weeks.

Trump hasn’t been in New Jersey for weeks and yet it is still competitive.

NJ isn’t competitive. Only delusional hacks think that.

When someone who isn't from New Jersey gives an analysis on NJ politics:

[ON Progressive]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

Trump hasn't been to those states in weeks.

Trump hasn’t been in New Jersey for weeks and yet it is still competitive.

NJ isn’t competitive. Only delusional hacks think that.

When someone who isn't from New Jersey gives an analysis on NJ politics:

I'm just going to leave this here:

[Lord Admirale]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

Trump hasn't been to those states in weeks.

Trump hasn’t been in New Jersey for weeks and yet it is still competitive.

NJ isn’t competitive. Only delusional hacks think that.

When someone who isn't from New Jersey gives an analysis on NJ politics:

I'm just going to leave this here:

You do realize this is a state that went D+14 in 2016, D+18 in 2012, and D+16 in 2008, and a majority of these polls have Menendez leading by single digits, correct?

Good try, canuck.

[ON Progressive]

You do realize this is a state that went D+14 in 2016, D+18 in 2012, and D+16 in 2008, and a majority of these polls have Menendez leading by single digits, correct?

Good try, canuck.

He's leading by double digits in all of the past three polls LMAO.

In any case, I'm out. I'm not wasting my time with delusional hacks on an off-topic argument.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Um ok back on topic. Anybody else think Bredesen can break 70% in Davidson and Shelby county.