TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[IceSpear]

Me and Timmy tried to tell you guys, but you wouldn't listen...

Put down the pom poms next time.

The math just wasn’t there. Southern white evangelicals are too strong. But they didn’t listen...

Forgive them Timmy, they know not what they do...the pom poms are too loud.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

As I said in another thread, this is what happens when Democrats run as Republican-lite these days.

I can only hope the Democratic party heeds Truman's warning soon - if they do so in time for the 2020 election, I think they could pick up 5 or more seats in that year.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fun fact DTC pointed out to me: Phil Bredesen didn’t win a single county that Hillary Clinton lost. He also did far better than her in Nashville. Those 2016 trends are damn strong.

[lfromnj]

Fun fact DTC pointed out to me: Phil Bredesen didn’t win a single county that Hillary Clinton lost. He also did far better than her in Nashville. Those 2016 trends are damn strong.

LMAO THE BLACK MAN won more counties than strong candidate Phil Bredesen.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Espy, Rosen and Sinema will win. ND, MO, FL and IN is gone. So a  net loss of 1 or 2 seats, in Senate 47D-52R

I am sure NC, ME and CO can fill the void in 2020

Unless Trump starts a nuclear war against Australia, life-sized human toe Thom Tillis will win in 2020 despite all of the "Weak Lean R/Toss up"s people on this site want to give it.

[TML]

As I said in another thread, this is what happens when Democrats run as Republican-lite these days.

I can only hope the Democratic party heeds Truman's warning soon - if they do so in time for the 2020 election, I think they could pick up 5 or more seats in that year.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

I think he was lucky. His margin of victory this year was much narrower than those of his previous statewide elections, and I think he may have lost had he faced a more capable Republican opponent.

[IceSpear]

Fun fact DTC pointed out to me: Phil Bredesen didn’t win a single county that Hillary Clinton lost. He also did far better than her in Nashville. Those 2016 trends are damn strong.

But Atlas told me 2016 was a one off!

[Calthrina950]

As I said in another thread, this is what happens when Democrats run as Republican-lite these days.

I can only hope the Democratic party heeds Truman's warning soon - if they do so in time for the 2020 election, I think they could pick up 5 or more seats in that year.

How do you explain Joe Manchin?

I think he was lucky. His margin of victory this year was much narrower than those of his previous statewide elections, and I think he may have lost had he faced a more capable Republican opponent.

I agree fully. If Jenkins had been the Republican nominee, Manchin would have lost by as least as much as McCaskill did, and possibly by as much as Heitkamp, Donnelly, and Bredesen.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Fun fact DTC pointed out to me: Phil Bredesen didn’t win a single county that Hillary Clinton lost. He also did far better than her in Nashville. Those 2016 trends are damn strong.

But Atlas told me 2016 was a one off!

Atlas was wrong. 2016 was a realignment.

Some political scientists don't really buy into realignment but I'm an advocate. I wrote my term paper about it, 1992 specifically. I think we will look back on 2016 the same way.

[Technocracy Timmy]

What I tell ya

[Technocracy Timmy]

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

[IceSpear]

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

Jesus Christ, lmao.

[Calthrina950]

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

Jesus Christ, lmao.

It's astounding to me how Bredesen managed to get to 44%, and still could not flip any of the counties Trump won. He seems to have gotten over the 40% mark by outperforming Hillary Clinton in Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, and Knoxville, and to a lesser extent, in the Nashville suburbs.

[Technocracy Timmy]

-snip-

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

Jesus Christ, lmao.

It's astounding to me how Bredesen managed to get to 44%, and still could not flip any of the counties Trump won. He seems to have gotten over the 40% mark by outperforming Hillary Clinton in Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, and Knoxville, and to a lesser extent, in the Nashville suburbs.

Yeah this is amazing given the the fact that Bredesen historically had such a blue dog rural heavy coalition. It’s important to remember that he did worse in Davidson and Shelby county in 2002 when he won statewide by 3 than Hillary Clinton did despite losing statewide by 26. He lost by 11 points in the end when Hillary lost by 24 and he still didn’t net gain any counties over her.

I think this suggest that future senate wins for Democrats in these type of red states will have to come from supercharging the cities and suburbs while accepting heavy losses in the countryside. There’s just no other path.

[lfromnj]

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

Jesus Christ, lmao.

It's astounding to me how Bredesen managed to get to 44%, and still could not flip any of the counties Trump won. He seems to have gotten over the 40% mark by outperforming Hillary Clinton in Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, and Knoxville, and to a lesser extent, in the Nashville suburbs.

Yeah it is incredible I thought atleast Hardeman would certainly flip unless Bredesen got Linda Lingle numbers.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

I wonder what happened with this. Were the supposed GOP internals simply garbage, or were the "GOP sources" playing Dems like a fiddle?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

I wonder what happened with this. Were the supposed GOP internals simply garbage, or were the "GOP sources" playing Dems like a fiddle?

Probably but they said the same stuff for Texas and those internals were getting true. Again polls generally underestimate racist rural hicks and Illegal border crossers all the time.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

Jesus Christ, lmao.

It's astounding to me how Bredesen managed to get to 44%, and still could not flip any of the counties Trump won. He seems to have gotten over the 40% mark by outperforming Hillary Clinton in Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, and Knoxville, and to a lesser extent, in the Nashville suburbs.

Yeah it is incredible I thought atleast Hardeman would certainly flip unless Bredesen got Linda Lingle numbers.

Hardeman was even an Obama 2012 county.  I was quite surprised Blackburn won it.  I also thought Bredesen had a good chance of flipping Hamilton (Chattanooga) and a 50-50 chance at Knox, but was stunned to see Bredesen eclipse 70% in Davidson and thought Blackburn held up better than expected in the Nashville suburbs (which did trend significantly in his favor, but I thought would trend more in his favor since Blackburn is not a great fit for the suburbs like I felt Lee was), save Rutherford County (which is now voting significantly to the left of all other suburban counties).

I didn't realize how different Franklin/Brentwood/Nolensville (Williamson County) were politically to La Vergne/Smyrna (Rutherford County).  Those inner Rutherford suburbs were only narrow Trump wins (and I wouldn't be stunned if it turns out Bredesen won them), while inner Williamson suburbs continue to have a strong Republican loyalty, even if 75% has turned into 67% in recent elections (and lower in a semi-competitive statewide race like this one obviously).

I want to do a full TN analysis later, probably focusing on Nashville and its suburbs, but I want to be able to see precinct information first.