TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi
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  TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi
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Poll
Question: Who Would You Vote For In a Matchup
#1
Phil Bredesen (D)
#2
Marsha Blackburn (R)
#3
The Libertarian
#4
Other
#5
Undecided
#6
Abstain
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Partisan results


Author Topic: TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi  (Read 91347 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #200 on: October 13, 2017, 02:58:08 AM »

Honestely, since TN is not a likely pick-up for Dems, I'd prefer Corker to change his mind.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #201 on: October 13, 2017, 03:07:19 AM »

The way this works is for repeat of 2006 primary. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2006

Corker won with just 48%.

And 2010 Governor Primary:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_gubernatorial_election,_2010

Haslam won with just 47%

The key in both was you had two very Conservative candidates running. One from the East and one from the West, splitting the Conservative vote and allowing the more moderate candidate to win in both instances.

In order for another Chattanooga or Knoxville moderate to pull this off, there would need to be a far right candidate from the East jump in as well and split right-wing vote with Blackburn.  
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TomC
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« Reply #202 on: October 13, 2017, 01:26:14 PM »

The way this works is for repeat of 2006 primary. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2006

Corker won with just 48%.

And 2010 Governor Primary:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_gubernatorial_election,_2010

Haslam won with just 47%

The key in both was you had two very Conservative candidates running. One from the East and one from the West, splitting the Conservative vote and allowing the more moderate candidate to win in both instances.

In order for another Chattanooga or Knoxville moderate to pull this off, there would need to be a far right candidate from the East jump in as well and split right-wing vote with Blackburn.  


#draftcampfield
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #203 on: October 14, 2017, 04:29:10 PM »

Matt Kisber or Mike McWherter would be good Democratic nominees.
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TomC
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« Reply #204 on: October 14, 2017, 04:51:02 PM »

Matt Kisber or Mike McWherter would be good Democratic nominees.

Last time he was the Democratic nominee, Mike McWherter got 33% to Haslam's 65%.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #205 on: October 16, 2017, 01:49:47 PM »

Huge news: Former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is considering a run. He may be the only Democrat that could truly make this race competitive.

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http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/10/16/democrat-phil-bredesen-confirms-interest-race-tennessee-senate-seat-held-bob-corker/768963001/
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Kamala
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« Reply #206 on: October 16, 2017, 01:52:48 PM »

Huge news: Former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen is considering a run. He may be the only Democrat that could truly make this race competitive.


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The Other Castro
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« Reply #207 on: October 16, 2017, 01:56:16 PM »

Apologies, with the exception of Tim McGraw of course.
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windjammer
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« Reply #208 on: October 16, 2017, 04:12:07 PM »

Bredesen isn't going to win lol
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #209 on: October 16, 2017, 04:23:19 PM »

If Bredesen enters, I would be willing to move this out of Safe R. But he's probably not running. Oh, and McGraw would never win statewide, sorry Atlas.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #210 on: October 16, 2017, 04:36:15 PM »


He could beat Blackburn in a wave; it'd be a very tough race, but not impossible.
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windjammer
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« Reply #211 on: October 16, 2017, 04:40:04 PM »


He could beat Blackburn in a wave; it'd be a very tough race, but not impossible.
So you really believe it is lean rep for now?

I mean, TN has become considerably more republican since he was first elected as Governor...
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #212 on: October 16, 2017, 04:45:17 PM »


He could beat Blackburn in a wave; it'd be a very tough race, but not impossible.
So you really believe it is lean rep for now?

I mean, TN has become considerably more republican since he was first elected as Governor...
The closest Bredeson could make it is single digits (if he campaigned on a Pro-Life platform). I doubt he could make it as close as 2006 though.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #213 on: October 16, 2017, 04:56:43 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2017, 04:58:34 PM by Malcolm X »


He could beat Blackburn in a wave; it'd be a very tough race, but not impossible.
So you really believe it is lean rep for now?

I mean, TN has become considerably more republican since he was first elected as Governor...

No, I didn't say that.  First, Bredesen hasn't actually declared yet Tongue  But if he does, it still starts as likely R.  I'm just saying I think Bredesen is 1) a really strong candidate, 2) Blackburn strikes me as a rather over-rated candidate who will likely prove to be something of a gaffe machine, 3) Karl Dean will give us a strong and well-funded Democrat at the top of the ticket, and 4) I think 2018 will be a pretty big Democratic wave at this point.  In other words, a lot would have to go right and it'd take both a wave and Blackburn shooting herself in the foot a few more times (she just had a pretty nasty scandal regarding her role in crippling the FDA's ability to combat the opioid epidemic; Tom Marino was involved too and it has probably sunk his DEA nomination), but Bredesen definitely has a path to victory against Blackburn.  

I'd also add that (IIRC) Blackburn is on really bad terms with the "moderate" (read: very right-wing but not batsh!t insane) wing of the TN Republican Party.  Haslam and especially Corker probably wouldn't do much to help her beyond minimal lip service to party loyalty.  I mean, there's a reason the state party establishment is recruiting Steve Fincher to run in the primary: Blackburn is a loose cannon who doesn't play well with others, so to speak.  I don't think Bredesen has a path to victory against Fincher although the Republicans might have to waste some money even then.
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TomC
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« Reply #214 on: October 16, 2017, 05:59:53 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2017, 06:29:09 PM by TCash101 »

Yes, Bredesen could totally make this race competitive against Blackburn. This is big, but likely a tease.

So far, the Republican surge in Tennessee has resulted in comparatively moderate "patrician" types in statewide offices. No hard right movement conservatives have won statewide. Blackburn does not fit that moderate mold; Bredesen totally does.

If he's teasing us, I hope he ends speculation with a highly visible endorsement of Mackler.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #215 on: October 16, 2017, 07:17:32 PM »

Bredesen will probably end up like Musgrove. At Least Dems have a high floor in MS.
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UWS
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« Reply #216 on: October 16, 2017, 07:23:19 PM »

So if Bob Corker retires, does that mean, according to the rankings in the following Senate Committees, that Jim Risch would replace Corker as Chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, that Marco Rubio would replace Jim Risch as Chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, etc. ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_Committee_on_Small_Business_and_Entrepreneurship

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_Committee_on_Foreign_Relations
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #217 on: October 16, 2017, 10:28:30 PM »

So if Bob Corker retires, does that mean, according to the rankings in the following Senate Committees, that Jim Risch would replace Corker as Chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, that Marco Rubio would replace Jim Risch as Chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, etc. ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_Committee_on_Small_Business_and_Entrepreneurship

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_Committee_on_Foreign_Relations
Correct, that's how the order of Republican leadership is expected to move (whether they'll be chairmen depends on Senate control, but Republicans are certainly favored to hold the Senate due to the map).
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #218 on: October 16, 2017, 11:19:52 PM »

Apologies, with the exception of Tim McGraw Dolly of course.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #219 on: October 16, 2017, 11:30:27 PM »

Bredesen is 73. Strickland Two, Electric Boogaloo?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #220 on: October 17, 2017, 01:05:15 AM »


So we get to look forward to whatever the equivalent of this is in TN? No Thanks then.:

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Gustaf
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« Reply #221 on: October 17, 2017, 09:18:12 AM »

I want to see a Bredesen vs. Blackburn poll before I move it from safe R to likely or leans. I think some people might be discounting Bredesen too soon--after all, Democrats hold two Senate seats right now in states to the right of Tennessee. Not expecting him to win of course; just not ceding the possibility he'd start out well ahead of Blackburn.

He left office with a 72% approval rating. Some people have brought up Linda Lingle or Ted Strickland. They both left office unpopular.

Yeah, the Strickland comparison is really weird. Strickland lost his reelection bid while Bredesen in his last election literally won every single county. Not that it would guarantee him a win or anything but he seems like a stronger candidate than Strickland.
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VPH
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« Reply #222 on: October 17, 2017, 09:18:41 AM »

I want to see a Bredesen vs. Blackburn poll before I move it from safe R to likely or leans. I think some people might be discounting Bredesen too soon--after all, Democrats hold two Senate seats right now in states to the right of Tennessee. Not expecting him to win of course; just not ceding the possibility he'd start out well ahead of Blackburn.

He left office with a 72% approval rating. Some people have brought up Linda Lingle or Ted Strickland. They both left office unpopular.

What muddles things in the South is how racially divided the vote has become. We'll see if Doug Jones can maybe build a path across that. Archie Parnell seemed to, but that could just appear to be so due to low turnout.
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TomC
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« Reply #223 on: October 17, 2017, 10:36:49 AM »
« Edited: October 17, 2017, 10:39:43 AM by TCash101 »

I really hope Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke gets in. I think he'd have a real chance.

I as a Tennessee Republican can not support Blackburn. And no other good candidate seems to want to step up, even "corrupt Fincher" may not, but he was supposed to make a decision by last Friday I wonder what happened. But uh, Berke maybe won't win, but he may make East Tennessee slightly more competitive. It'll be within the ten point range, but I still believe Blackburn is going to be a Senator Sad

Agreed on Burke's chances and Blackburn's. I really like Burke and think he's a great candidate... to get Dems above 40% for the first time since 2006. The Republicans would have to nominate a Beavers or Carr for Burke to win in 2018. In some ways, Bredesen aside, Mackler is the perfect candidate for Dems: young, outsider, patriotic, good at not being overly labeled or pigeonholed as a specific kind of Dem. Not sure all that can be said about Burke. Mackler just needs serious momentum and increased name recognition- he's a strong campaigner but he's coming out of nowhere.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #224 on: October 20, 2017, 04:53:16 PM »

Bredesen to decide in the next few weeks whether he will run.

http://www.newschannel5.com/news/bredesen-will-make-senate-run-decision-in-next-few-weeks
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