TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

I think we dissected that poll a while back, haha.

The thing of interest there is more the claim about GOP internals than this poll itself.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

I think we dissected that poll a while back, haha.

But he's saying "I am told" so he's implying internal polls the public isn't seeing.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

Well, some random guy on Twitter said it, so it must be true.

[The Mikado]

Polling has been very unreliable and contradictory this year, no one should be "shocked" if Bredesen wins this race (or if Espy wins in MS, for that matter), especially if the Democratic tidal wave everyone is predicting is real.

Basically the only conceivable way Espy could win would be to win in the first round, which seems insanely unlikely but still more likely than somehow beating Hyde-Smith with runoff turnout.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

Well, some random guy on Twitter said it, so it must be true.

Writer for the Washington Post?

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

Well, some random guy on Twitter said it, so it must be true.

Writer for the Washington Post?

Opinion columnist for the Washington Post. It wouldn't be hard to find opinion columnists on Twitter discussing the impending red wave.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

[wbrocks67]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

[Politician]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

Are you seriously trying to reason with him? Bredesen could be leading by 10 and he would still call this Safe R based on his ridiculous assumptions about the Republican base.

[Calthrina950]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

Are you seriously trying to reason with him? Bredesen could be leading by 10 and he would still call this Safe R based on his ridiculous assumptions about the Republican base.

But they are not ridiculous. Tennessee looks set to disappoint Democrats again, just like it did in 2006. And if this were still a true tossup, we would see more polls showing it as such, and from more widely known polling outfits.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

Are you seriously trying to reason with him? Bredesen could be leading by 10 and he would still call this Safe R based on his ridiculous assumptions about the Republican base.

Saving these for when Blackburn wins by 8 in two days.

[MillennialModerate]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

Are you seriously trying to reason with him? Bredesen could be leading by 10 and he would still call this Safe R based on his ridiculous assumptions about the Republican base.

Saving these for when Blackburn wins by 8 in two days.

As annoying as ^ these posts are,

I’m afraid he’s right - Blackburn wins this and she won’t sweat it

[Brittain33]

Of course Blackburn's still favored to win, but there's still a couple of (garbagy) public polls having it tied and random chatter about internal polls showing it close which mirror the public behavior of the campaigns. Is it that hard to believe all of this is happening at once?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Of course Blackburn's still favored to win, but there's still a couple of (garbagy) public polls having it tied and random chatter about internal polls showing it close which mirror the public behavior of the campaigns. Is it that hard to believe all of this is happening at once?

Well let’s take into account that Pew had TN as the most white evangelical state in 2014 - 52% of its total population. And that study also showed that over three times as many Gen X/baby boomer TN residents were white evangelicals than millennials and younger millenials were. So the voting electorate given age turnout differences is probably gonna be at least 60% white evangelical in 2 days.

White evangelicals nationally voted about 80-84% for a thrice married pussy grabbing New Yorker simply cuz of the magic R next to his name. 80% of white evangelicals in the state directly below TN voted for Roy Moore, an accused pedophile who was a notoriously weak candidate even prior to the allegations (he won by a parsley 4 points against a Democrat in 2012 - with Obama on the ballot).

If Blackburn simply wins 80% of whites evanglicals in her state, she’s at 48% of the total share of the electorate without a single voter from the 40% of Tennessee voters that aren’t white evangelicals. If she gets just a tiny 15% of those folks, she’s at 54% total.

Now I know some people love pointing out that “Bredesen was a beloved Governor way back when!” well gubernatorials even today aren’t stongly reflective of the federal leanings of a state (let alone in 2006). Phil Scott as a Republican won his state easily in 2016 despite being in Vermont and Jim Justice also won his state easily in 2016 despite having a D next to his name. Voters are far, far less partisan even today in their gubernatorial races compared to their federal races. And how these voters felt in 2006 of all years is especially less partisan.

There’s no magic solution for Bredesen to beat these fundamentals. If some people just took off their Pom poms and Democratic Party cheerleading for two seconds they’d see this.

[IceSpear]

Of course Blackburn's still favored to win, but there's still a couple of (garbagy) public polls having it tied and random chatter about internal polls showing it close which mirror the public behavior of the campaigns. Is it that hard to believe all of this is happening at once?

Well let’s take into account that Pew had TN as the most white evangelical state in 2014 - 52% of its total population. And that study also showed that over three times as many Gen X/baby boomer TN residents were white evangelicals than millennials and younger millenials were. So the voting electorate given age turnout differences is probably gonna be at least 60% white evangelical in 2 days.

White evangelicals nationally voted about 80-84% for a thrice married pussy grabbing New Yorker simply cuz of the magic R next to his name. 80% of white evangelicals in the state directly below TN voted for Roy Moore, an accused pedophile who was a notoriously weak candidate even prior to the allegations (he won by a parsley 4 points against a Democrat in 2012 - with Obama on the ballot).

If Blackburn simply wins 80% of whites evanglicals in her state, she’s at 48% of the total share of the electorate without a single voter from the 40% of Tennessee voters that aren’t white evangelicals. If she gets just a tiny 15% of those folks, she’s at 54% total.

Now I know some people love pointing out that “Bredesen was a beloved Governor way back when!” well gubernatorials even today aren’t stongly reflective of the federal leanings of a state (let alone in 2006). Phil Scott as a Republican won his state easily in 2016 despite being in Vermont and Jim Justice also won his state easily in 2016 despite having a D next to his name. Voters are far, far less partisan even today in their gubernatorial races compared to their federal races. And how these voters felt in 2006 of all years is especially less partisan.

There’s no magic solution for Bredesen to beat these fundamentals. If some people just took off their Pom poms and Democratic Party cheerleading for two seconds they’d see this.

Great post Timmy! And you didn't even mention that Blackburn is way ahead in the polling average and at 80%+ odds on 538.

It is sad to see what this thread (and many others) has devolved into. Nothing but this:



This flagrant Dem hackery must cease and desist at once. We will be getting Sen. Blackburn.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

[libertpaulian]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

Exactly.  It's also important to note that white evangelicals in Indiana are slightly more elastic than white evangelicals in Dixie.

In 2016, Evan Bayh got 28% of white evangelicals even while getting blown out in a 10% landslide.

[IceSpear]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

No need to trust Atlas posters, trust the high quality polls which all give Blackburn a comfortable lead. And Republicans tend to overperform the polls in Tennessee anyway. And as for Alabama, didn't you predict the race would be MO-Sen 2012 redux? So you were just as off as I was there.

And as Timmy said, Tennessee is far more Republican than Missouri and Indiana. In fact, Blackburn winning by mid to high single digits while McCaskill and Donnelly are in squeakers would actually perfectly fit Trump's margins in those states.

[Politician]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

No need to trust Atlas posters, trust the high quality polls which all give Blackburn a comfortable lead. And Republicans tend to overperform the polls in Tennessee anyway. And as for Alabama, didn't you predict the race would be MO-Sen 2012 redux? So you were just as off as I was there.

And as Timmy said, Tennessee is far more Republican than Missouri and Indiana. In fact, Blackburn winning by mid to high single digits while McCaskill and Donnelly are in squeakers would actually perfectly fit Trump's margins in those states.

Senator Roy Moore agrees with this post. "Alabama is too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

[IceSpear]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

No need to trust Atlas posters, trust the high quality polls which all give Blackburn a comfortable lead. And Republicans tend to overperform the polls in Tennessee anyway. And as for Alabama, didn't you predict the race would be MO-Sen 2012 redux? So you were just as off as I was there.

And as Timmy said, Tennessee is far more Republican than Missouri and Indiana. In fact, Blackburn winning by mid to high single digits while McCaskill and Donnelly are in squeakers would actually perfectly fit Trump's margins in those states.

Senator Roy Moore agrees with this post. "Alabama is too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

Dude, you thought Heller would win during a Democratic tsunami, LOL.

Anyway, is Blackburn a pedophile? I must have missed that.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Senator Roy Moore agrees with this post. "Alabama is too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

I take it you didn’t want to read my post earlier on the subject and try to respond to it so you went with this one sentence false analogy.

Not surprising that the same guy who thinks Ojeda will win also thinks Bredesen will win. You people are obsessed with rural-evangelical whites voting Democrat despite the fact that they hate 80% of what the Party stands for LOL.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

We’re talking about a candidate who swept every county in 2006 and won by 39 points in said state, when demographics were slightly better for Dems but still very unfavorable. He has the adventage of being able to tap into a reservoir of residual goodwill/nostalgia and is uniquely suited to appeal to high propensity and center-right voters who are fine with Bill Lee but just can’t bring themselves to vote for a "shrill extremist/lunatic" over their Phil Bredesen.

I guess we’ll see on Tuesday, but I guarantee you if Blackburn actually wins by double digits on election night, then Democrats will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race.

[IceSpear]

Senator Roy Moore agrees with this post. "Alabama is too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

I take it you didn’t want to read my post earlier on the subject and try to respond to it so you went with this one sentence false analogy.

Not surprising that the same guy who thinks Ojeda will win also thinks Bredesen will win. You people are obsessed with rural-evangelical whites voting Democrat despite the fact that they hate 80% 100% of what the Party stands for LOL.

The Democratic Party doesn't stand for Welfare For Whites.

[McGovernForPrez]

Everybody in this thread needs to chill out.