TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[TomC]

Ahhhhhhhhhhh

Just saying, an open TN race may be more competitive than a Cruz-held TX race.

Maybe, but who can Democrats run? And I'd wager the open governor's seat is more appealing to strong candidates because it's more winnable than an open Senate seat.

Easy answer is you push Fitzhugh or Dean out of the gov race and into the senate one—avoid the cost of a primary, decent shot for both now that it's an open seat.

We need some primaries to build interest in the party, have more opportunities to get their name recognition up.

[TomC]

Ahhhhhhhhhhh

Just saying, an open TN race may be more competitive than a Cruz-held TX race.

Maybe, but who can Democrats run? And I'd wager the open governor's seat is more appealing to strong candidates because it's more winnable than an open Senate seat.

Easy answer is you push Fitzhugh or Dean out of the gov race and into the senate one—avoid the cost of a primary, decent shot for both now that it's an open seat.

We need some primaries to build interest in the party, have more opportunities to get their name recognition up.

Does James Mackler have a chance, or is he just Some Dude?  

He's some dude, but the good news is he's a normal dude, not crazy. He's been hitting it hard and his rhetoric has been good without painting himself too much into a corner. He's a moderate without being divisive (in terms of being seen as "urban"or "rural"). He's definitely a long shot, but after nominees like Mark Clayton and Charlie Brown, there's a "thank god he's sane" factor to him. Only shot is if we get a Roy Moore (with less name recognition). I'd much rather see Andy Burke run. We know we're going to lose for a few more cycles but I think we need some known names to lose 55-45 to build capacity and get some competitive races sooner than later.

So far the far right, while dominating a lot of the energy of the GOP, hasn't won any state-wide races. Once they do, and the Dems truly build capacity, we'll see some opportunities.

I still believe Corker and Haslam may be in the early stages of swapping jobs. I think Haslammight have a tough time in a primary if conservatives consolidate support for a single conservative standard bearer. I've never voted GOP for Pres, but I voted Haslam twice, without regret.

[TomC]

I would be good with a Governor Black and Senator Blackburn come 2019!  Though, Mark Green would make it a really difficult choice!!

Ugh. Praying for Governor Boyd or Harwell. I'll vote Dean in the GE, but as a teacher, not that psyched about him- I'd rather see Fitz, even though I think both would lose. Senate? Yeah, give Green or Carr the nomination and see a slightly competitive race.

[TomC]

What are Haslam's chances against Blackburn in the primary?

He's governor so he's got a decent shot, but he has not ingratiated himself to conservatives as governor. His chances are better if conservatives split their votes among several candidates. One on one against Marsha? I wouldn't bet money on him.

[TomC]

Blackburn makes Sarah Palin sound like Plato.

I detest Blackburn, but think you're being overly generous to Palin (and extremely unfair to Plato).

[TomC]

Travis???

Edit: never mind- got it. LOL

[TomC]

I think Corker would actually have made a good governor.

We could do worse...and probably will.

[TomC]

Hold the phone, Gov. Haslam is considering a run.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/09/28/gov-bill-haslam-says-hes-considering-running-u-s-senate-seat-held-bob-corker/706545001/

I think there are no run-offs in TN, so a crowded primary could yield some interesting results.

Go Haslam go!

If I lived in Tennessee, being that it's an open primary state, I would vote for Haslam in the primary just to prevent the potential further insanity of Congress.

Tempting but I'm more interested in increasing Dem participation. Hoping for a contested primary.

[TomC]

On Haslam: on one hand, yay, not a crazy! On the other, yay, yet another multimillionaire who can self fund his way to another office :/

[TomC]

On Haslam: on one hand, yay, not a crazy! On the other, yay, yet another multimillionaire who can self fund his way to another office :/

Would not that untangle him from any lobbyist strings?

Well, Haslam's a fairly decent guy, but no in general I haven't seen that rich politicians are immune from pressure from the business lobby; I suspect Hadlsm's friends hired many of these lobbyists.

But seriously- Corker, Bredesen, HCA's Frist...Karl Dean here in Nashville. I want a "common man"! (Or woman)

[TomC]

I highly doubt Blackburn will be the only major senate candidate.

With no Haslam or Manning, Blackburn will have the biggest name recognition, and among Republicans her negatives won't be all that bad. The nomination will be hers to lose.

Excellent news for Dems.

A glimmer of hope maybe, but no, far from excellent news.

[TomC]

James Meckler, the strongest D running so far.. strongest endorsement is the producer of the O Brother, Where Art Thou? soundtrack. So Berke will probably run.

And it's possible Carr or something gives it a shot. But I'd be very surprised if Blackburn didn't win this seat (from what I've seen, not being a Tennessean myself)

Mackler was endorsed by former state party chair and Senate nominee Bob Tuke. Not known widely but certainly by Democratic insiders and activists here. Looks like he got an iron workers union endorsement today. Not to negate your point, but insider peeps are starting to get on board and while his low name recognition is a big obstacle, he's running this like a pro. I've been impressed. Now if T Bone's wife (who created and produced Nashville the TV show- that would be more noteworthy than her husband's endorsement.

But yeah, it's completely Marsha's to lose.

[TomC]

James Meckler, the strongest D running so far.. strongest endorsement is the producer of the O Brother, Where Art Thou? soundtrack. So Berke will probably run.

And it's possible Carr or something gives it a shot. But I'd be very surprised if Blackburn didn't win this seat (from what I've seen, not being a Tennessean myself)

Mackler was endorsed by former state party chair and Senate nominee Bob Tuke. Not known widely but certainly by Democratic insiders and activists here. Looks like he got an iron workers union endorsement today. Not to negate your point, but insider peeps are starting to get on board and while his low name recognition is a big obstacle, he's running this like a pro. I've been impressed. Now if T Bone's wife (who created and produced Nashville the TV show- that would be more noteworthy than her husband's endorsement.

But yeah, it's completely Marsha's to lose.

What would you rate his chances? Better or worse than Jones and O'Rourke? Also, isn't Blackburn prone to ridiculous gaffes?

I think Jones has a better shot in that the national media and party is going to give him plenty of name ID and support. And Marsha's not Roy Moore crazy; I don't have much faith in gaffes hurting her chances- we're in the Trump era after all.. Mackler is a fresh face and better than Jones in that regard; he's just got a big job to get known. I don't really know enough about O'Rourke, but he's going against an incumbent Republican in Texas- Texas is more likely to move to competitive before Tn and Ala., but I doubt we're there yet.

[TomC]

I'll probably vote in the GOP primary to keep Crazy Marsha off the ballot.

Remember, we'll have a Dean vs. Fitzhugh primary race on the gubernatorial side- you should take part in that; your vote will have more of an impact there.

[TomC]

The way this works is for repeat of 2006 primary. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2006

Corker won with just 48%.

And 2010 Governor Primary:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_gubernatorial_election,_2010

Haslam won with just 47%

The key in both was you had two very Conservative candidates running. One from the East and one from the West, splitting the Conservative vote and allowing the more moderate candidate to win in both instances.

In order for another Chattanooga or Knoxville moderate to pull this off, there would need to be a far right candidate from the East jump in as well and split right-wing vote with Blackburn.  

#draftcampfield

[TomC]

Matt Kisber or Mike McWherter would be good Democratic nominees.

Last time he was the Democratic nominee, Mike McWherter got 33% to Haslam's 65%.

[TomC]

Yes, Bredesen could totally make this race competitive against Blackburn. This is big, but likely a tease.

So far, the Republican surge in Tennessee has resulted in comparatively moderate "patrician" types in statewide offices. No hard right movement conservatives have won statewide. Blackburn does not fit that moderate mold; Bredesen totally does.

If he's teasing us, I hope he ends speculation with a highly visible endorsement of Mackler.

[TomC]

I really hope Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke gets in. I think he'd have a real chance.

I as a Tennessee Republican can not support Blackburn. And no other good candidate seems to want to step up, even "corrupt Fincher" may not, but he was supposed to make a decision by last Friday I wonder what happened. But uh, Berke maybe won't win, but he may make East Tennessee slightly more competitive. It'll be within the ten point range, but I still believe Blackburn is going to be a Senator

Agreed on Burke's chances and Blackburn's. I really like Burke and think he's a great candidate... to get Dems above 40% for the first time since 2006. The Republicans would have to nominate a Beavers or Carr for Burke to win in 2018. In some ways, Bredesen aside, Mackler is the perfect candidate for Dems: young, outsider, patriotic, good at not being overly labeled or pigeonholed as a specific kind of Dem. Not sure all that can be said about Burke. Mackler just needs serious momentum and increased name recognition- he's a strong campaigner but he's coming out of nowhere.

[TomC]

Let's have Bredesen run, have Bayh and Strickland primary Donnelly and Brown, bring back Mark Pryor in AR. It can be the 90s again, folks!


While we're at it, I think Siegelman could make an EXCELLENT AL Gov candidate. He was framed, after all.

Better yet: Democrats should run far-left candidates in literally every district, especially business-inclined, pro-life districts. That'll get you a majority for sure!

Yes, clearly embracing Phil Bredesen, who might get 35% of the vote if he's lucky, is the key to getting a majority in Congress.

No, he'd get over 40%, but under 45.

[TomC]

There's what it does for Senate predictions and any hyperbolic response is going to be wrong. Blackburn is formidable, too, but might not sell with the moderates who have thus far controlled GOP statewide elections.

As a Tennessee democratic, the big, refreshing news is that a Democrat with stature has thrown his hat in the ring. That hasn't happened since 2006. Even if he loses, this will be good for the party.

I'll still vote for Mackler in the primary though

[TomC]

Sorry to interrupt the party (not really ), but this will be Linda Lingle 2.0.

Maybe Lingle 2.0 but with the possibility of half the losing margin. 2012 was not a good year for Republicans in general. Not the worst, but not neutral or good. I really can't find any way to say 2018 will not be bad for Republicans. The only debate imo is how bad.

Agreed. Bredesen will break 40%, and Blackburn is no Hirono.

[TomC]

Likely R.

How much of a raging lunatic Blackburn chooses to be will decide the race.

Isn't Stephen Fincher also running on the GOP side? There's a non-zero chance he wins the primary as well...

There's a zero percent chance. Always bet on the nuttiest person winning a Republican primary, and you'll seldom go wrong.

No, patrician (arguably moderate) millionaires Haslam, Corker, and Alexander all faced nutty candidates in their primaries and easily won. Hard right wing nuts winning a statewide primary or general hasn't happened yet in Tennessee. I don't think Fincher is going to beat Blackburn, her name recognition is too high, but she's different from previous statewide nominees, so the winning formula the three men's above used to win the state is one she can't perfectly replicate. Plus she's far from able to be an "outsider". I'm not saying Bredesen will beat her, but to look at past statewide GOP successes and assume this will be viewed in the same way is short sighted.

Edited to add: and Blackburn doesn't really have Obama to run against, and from his ad, Bredesen is clearly running against the dysfunction in DC (as Trump did) and not against Trump himself.

[TomC]

Likely R.

How much of a raging lunatic Blackburn chooses to be will decide the race.

Isn't Stephen Fincher also running on the GOP side? There's a non-zero chance he wins the primary as well...

There's a zero percent chance. Always bet on the nuttiest person winning a Republican primary, and you'll seldom go wrong.

No, patrician (arguably moderate) millionaires Haslam, Corker, and Alexander all faced nutty candidates in their primaries and easily won. Hard right wing nuts winning a statewide primary or general hasn't happened yet in Tennessee. I don't think Fincher is going to beat Blackburn, her name recognition is too high, but she's different from previous statewide nominees, so the winning formula the three men's above used to win the state is one she can't perfectly replicate. Plus she's far from able to be an "outsider". I'm not saying Bredesen will beat her, but to look at past statewide GOP successes and assume this will be viewed in the same way is short sighted.

Edited to add: and Blackburn doesn't really have Obama to run against, and from his ad, Bredesen is clearly running against the dysfunction in DC (as Trump did) and not against Trump himself.

Trump was nutty and he won the primary and then the general by 26 points. Not saying the race is safe R by any means. I want to see polling first. And, as I pointed out above, there had to be a reason why Bredesen suddenly decided he did in fact want to run for Senate after turning down overtures to run in 2006, 2008, 2012 and even initially this year. I suspect the DSCC has something on Blackburn. But I just don't see how Blackburn loses the primary with all of her red meat throwing and name rec/persecution complex from the Twitter video.

In 2006 he ran for re-election as governor and won every county. In 2008 and 12, there were Republican moderates running for re-election, not an open seat. Initially this year, we assumed Corker was running for re-election.

Trump was a nutty outsider populist, not an insider wingnut, but point taken. I was referring to senate and governor races when I referred to statewide races though; those have all been won by moderates who out-primaried more conservative candidates. And in 16, Trump beat more conservative Cruz in the primary. Trump's appeal to racism and anti immigration certainly played a part, but he beat the social conservative Cruz.

I'm not making an outright prediction on the race; my thesis is those who say a movement conservative will obviously beat a non-partisan moderate are only theorizing- no governor or senate race in Tennessee has actually resulted in that outcome yet.

[TomC]

It will be interesting to see the extent Fincher goes to raise Marsha's negatives, which he will most certainly have to do and whether it's that she's too conservative (dangerous tactic) or if he's able to paint her as an insider (tough since he was a Rep. too).

[TomC]

Lol Mackler is screwed XD.

Agreed. I feel sorry for him. For a nobody coming out of nowhere, he was really running a pretty good race campaign. I intend to vote for him.