TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[100% pro-life no matter what]

TNvolunteer, who would be the favorite to win this senate seat? Jaslam? Blackburn?

Haslam would be the favorite.

Haslam's popularity among the Republican base has been steadily declining- I'm not sure he would even be a shoo-in in a low-turnout GOP primary.  Of course, the state at large would love a Senator Haslam, but I could see someone like Blackburn or Green making a primary interesting should they run.  My understanding is that Corker is highly likely to ultimately decide to run, still.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Activist Andy Ogles is running for the Republican nomination.

Are we ready for a Corker-Ogles-Beavers primary?

Beavers is running for governor

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Potential Candidates:

Marsha Blackburn (probably the most likely at this point)
Bill Haslam (I doubt he runs, but he would be formidable, but not invincible if he does)
Mark Green (maybe he will reconsider now that Corker is out)
Peyton Manning (who knows, really)
Joe Carr (he runs for something every cycle, but never wins anything)

Andy Berke is probably the likely Democratic nominee at this point.  Clay Travis is a wildcard, but he will likely run as an independent, so he likely won't matter.

Andy Ogles is already running for the GOP nomination, but I don't think he is a big enough name to have much of a shot.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I would be good with a Governor Black and Senator Blackburn come 2019!  Though, Mark Green would make it a really difficult choice!!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Excellent news for the conservative movement.

FIFY.  I really am looking forward to Senator Blackburn!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not sure if this belongs here, but Mark Green is running for Blackburn's seat.

My signature is coming true!! (I had heard that this was the plan from people ever since Corker announced his retirement)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Has Bredesen ever stated his abortion position?  I didn't know it, so I Googled it and still couldn't figure it out.  The only thing I found was that, in 2010, he allowed a pro-life law to go into effect without his signature, but didn't veto it either.  He can't really play that middle ground as a senator.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Vanderbilt will release a poll on Dec. 14. Expecting something like Bredesen +8 and Dean +4 or so.

Are you suggesting that because Vanderbilt's poll said something like Trump +10 when it was really Trump +26?  I'd be surprised if Dean were in the lead, but not really if Bredesen is right now, but I would expect that to fade.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I am proud to support Congressman Marsha Blackburn.

Was unaware the Congressman had a sex change.

She views the term "Congresswoman" as a politically correct misnomer.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I've run a GCS poll of this race and am working on the analysis right now. I'm unfamiliar with Tennessee though and having trouble finding party data - can anybody guide me as to what the likely Dem/Rep/Independent percentage breakdown of the electorate will be?

Unfortunately, TN hasn't been exit polled since 2008.  Back then, it was a R+1 electorate, but ancestral Democrats might have been more likely to still identify as Democrats.  I checked the 2016 polls for theirs, but they underestimated Trump's margin by an average of 15 points (!) in Tennessee.  ICitizen is the only one with an electorate, and theirs was R+6 (with a topline of Trump +10, when he won by 26).

I did a one question GCS poll of TN in the presidential election, which I could only weight by age and sex (which turned out to only change the results slightly due to an insignificant age gap and the roughly 50:50 ratio of men and women), and it slightly overestimated Trump (Trump +33), but it was the most accurate of any Tennessee poll last cycle.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Would 45-38-17 (R-D-I) work?

I would just use that with the caveat of the partisan breakdown, but that is similar to last year's iCitizen poll (which ultimately was too Democratic-friendly, but that could be for a lot of reasons).  Plus, 2018 will likely have a more Democratic electorate than 2016.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

I'm pretty sure he lives in TN, but I would be shocked if he was in Indiana since that's not even the last place he played.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

I'm pretty sure he lives in TN, but I would be shocked if he was in Indiana since that's not even the last place he played.

I was wrong about Indiana...Denver, as of Oct this year.

He lives in Knoxville:
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/10/03/peyton-manning-age-wife-stats-kids-statue/726760001/

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Manning has no interest. Isn't he a resident of Indiana?

NFL players move around a bit, mostly...but Manning went to college in Tennessee, and was married in Tennessee after he was already playing for Indy.

Oh yeah, I'm aware he played for the Vols 20 years ago. I was suggesting that if he had any interest in being a Tennessee senator, he'd have moved back.

I'm pretty sure he lives in TN, but I would be shocked if he was in Indiana since that's not even the last place he played.

I was wrong about Indiana...Denver, as of Oct this year.

He lives in Knoxville:
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/10/03/peyton-manning-age-wife-stats-kids-statue/726760001/

I'd expect him to also have a Denver-area residence, though, seeing as he played there less than 2 years ago.

The chances are pretty good that Peyton Manning has more than one house

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Extreme conservative what do you think of a Blackburn/Bredesen race?

A slight Bredesen lead in this Gravis poll right now doesn't shock me, but this just shows that she has yet to consolidate Republicans.  I think Blackburn probably will win something like 54-43 at the end of the day, barring any scandals.

This is somewhere between Lean R and Likely R right now.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

So apparently Mueller obtained "tens of thousands” of Trump transition emails which included multiple emails between the corrupt Trump administration and Marsha Blackburn.

Scandal imminent?

Sending an email to the president's transition committee is a scandal?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Interesting question about the Swift endorsement-  She said she is voting for Bredesen and Cooper, but why did she leave off Dean?  Is she supporting Lee, but that wouldn't fit with the overall tone?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

Jesus Christ, lmao.

It's astounding to me how Bredesen managed to get to 44%, and still could not flip any of the counties Trump won. He seems to have gotten over the 40% mark by outperforming Hillary Clinton in Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, and Knoxville, and to a lesser extent, in the Nashville suburbs.

Yeah it is incredible I thought atleast Hardeman would certainly flip unless Bredesen got Linda Lingle numbers.

Hardeman was even an Obama 2012 county.  I was quite surprised Blackburn won it.  I also thought Bredesen had a good chance of flipping Hamilton (Chattanooga) and a 50-50 chance at Knox, but was stunned to see Bredesen eclipse 70% in Davidson and thought Blackburn held up better than expected in the Nashville suburbs (which did trend significantly in his favor, but I thought would trend more in his favor since Blackburn is not a great fit for the suburbs like I felt Lee was), save Rutherford County (which is now voting significantly to the left of all other suburban counties).

I didn't realize how different Franklin/Brentwood/Nolensville (Williamson County) were politically to La Vergne/Smyrna (Rutherford County).  Those inner Rutherford suburbs were only narrow Trump wins (and I wouldn't be stunned if it turns out Bredesen won them), while inner Williamson suburbs continue to have a strong Republican loyalty, even if 75% has turned into 67% in recent elections (and lower in a semi-competitive statewide race like this one obviously).

I want to do a full TN analysis later, probably focusing on Nashville and its suburbs, but I want to be able to see precinct information first.