TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

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Blackburn has always been one of my least favorite in Congress... even though she has tried hard the past year or two ... to comes off as not as partisan and not as crazy (she def still is crazy... try as she may to hide it).

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I see Blackburn is leading in a new Gravis Poll.... the thought of Blackburn being elected to the Senate is a bit unsettling.

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Do (enough) voters in TN not think Marsha is too nuts to be in the Senate??  Especially compared to a highly respected 2 term Governor?

If anyone had told me (prior to this year) that Blackburn would be in the Senate one day- I would have laughed out loud.  I completely do not understand- even a Republican state- electing her to the Senate??

That's why I think Bredesen still has a shot, despite the poll.  (Surely Bredesen has a treasure trove of footage on Blackburn, for attack ads... to show that she is definitely outside of the mainstream.. that would peel out enough moderate republicans?)

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There is still a lot of time in this race.  The positive Kavanaugh effect for Republicans is at its peak- it will only retract from here (the question is how much).  Bredesen has been leading much of the race- if Kavanaugh effect comes back down to earth- this is not over. (especially with Blackburn as the candidate- which many moderates are uncomfortable with... even if they like Kavanaugh).

We may look back in a couple of weeks and see the title of this Thread as prophetic!

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Bredesen needs to cut some good ads on pre-existing conditions... especially if he can find any footage of Blackburn wavering on or not requiring pre-existing condition protection.  This seem to be the one issue that for some ... takes favor over MAGA.  If the race tightens again- and he can peel off 2% via healthcare policy (this would dissolve a 4pt margin in the polls).

Also- this is a prime race where negative ads could be effective.  Bredesen is a known and well like name in TN... Many are less familiar with Blackburn- which means there is an opening to define her in a way that makes some voters weary of her. (and there is a lot to work with with Blackburn- just dig up some of her crazier moments/ comments).  Plenty of Moderate Republicans have always seen Blackburn as too far out there in Hack-land... Bredesen needs to illustrate this to those less familiar with her.

A popular 2 term Governor (who has led in polls much of the this race) running against Marsha Blackburn... I find it hard to believe that even in TN, Blackburn is not beatable (It just requires Bredesen campaign to turn it up a notch and run a savvy campaign the remaining 3 weeks). Show some energy, make enough people doubt Blackburn, and highlight 1 or 2 issues that Dems still hold the popular ground on (like pre-existing conditions).

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How do Bredesen & Blackburn compare regarding their social media strategies... esp Facebook?  (not necessarily who has the most there... but how effective are each of the campaigns efforts)

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TBH, although I was happy that Bredesen led in the polls for a while, down inside I always had a feeling that his campaign style might be, to put it diplomatically, less than optimal. Compared to Doug Jones' campaign, here are some areas where I think Bredesen didn't do as well as Jones did:

-Be more aggressive in attacking his opponent

In this current political climate, running a campaign which is too civil often ends up working against the candidate running that campaign. IMO, the Jones campaign was more aggressive in attacking Moore than Bredesen has been in attacking Blackburn.

-Do less to alienate progressive base voters

The Cook Political Report currently rates TN as less right-leaning than WV or ND and right in line with AL, so I think Bredesen would have been in better shape had he positioned himself closer to Jones or Tester than Manchin or Heitkamp. Indeed, during Jones' 2017 campaign, one particular political commentator stated that the problem with moving Jones toward the center/left is that such a move would turn off progressive base voters.

Now, logic tells me that Bredesen is on track to becoming the next Evan Bayh, but if by some chance he recovers and pulls this one out, I hope he can change his style to align himself closer to Jones/Tester than Manchin/Heitkamp, since his current style will probably not make him stick around for long should he get in.

I get the feeling he was recruit to run of sorts... and likely would not seek re-election.

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TN is #4 in the country for States who relay on Trade... and hurt by Trade Wars.  Bredesen needs to be hammering this in his ads- the importance of a Senator who will work to limit these Trade wars.  The business community will vote for Bredesen if they think he is best for the TN economy.  This is his strength to begin with. He needs to hammer it home in ads.

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https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/1055591329567293440

It will be interesting to see how moderate Republicans vote in TN... with a Moderate Dem and pretty far Right Repub on the ballot??

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https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/1055591329567293440

It will be interesting to see how moderate Republicans vote in TN... with a Moderate Dem and pretty far Right Repub on the ballot??

How do Jeff Flake and Susan Collins vote?

One difference could be that many of the Moderate Republicans have actually voted for Bredesen in the past.. and gave him high job approval numbers.

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Taylor Swift need to send out an "Affect 1 Voter" tweet on Sunday or Monday... telling all of her followers to affect just 1 vote on election day...

Convince 1 friend or family member not planning to vote-to go vote (in any state).  

Considering she has 84 Million followers- she could really affect some races nationwide. Taylor Swift is #5 Most Followed... Behind 1) Katy Perry, 2) Justin Bieber, 3) Obama, 4) Rihanna.

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IF (and its a big IF) the race in TN is indeed much closer than the latest polls have indicated... where do you think the polling models are off?

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The one thing that gives me hope for Bredesen... is I still go back to not being able to imagine Marsha Blackburn being elected to Senate- especially against a very popular and trusted 2 term governor who had hugely successful achievements that many still remember.  He is literally the antithesis to Blackburn.  I'm hoping enough people- especially undecided voters, will end up pulling the lever so-to-speak for the comfortable old shoe they know and trust.

Also- he was a Hugely popular Mayor of Nashville for 8 years- so I'm hoping he over-performs in a big way in Nashville.

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What effect- if any- will the TN congressional elections have on the Senate race... ie- do Dems have strong candidates in all of the races to help turn out voters, etc

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Looking at Early Voting...

3 Counties that are within 10% of 2016 turnout levels:
Davidson
Hamilton
Williamson

I think Davidson & Williamson are around Nashville & should be good for Bredesen...

But what about Hamilton?

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Looking at Early Voting...

3 Counties that are within 10% of 2016 turnout levels:
Davidson
Hamilton
Williamson

I think Davidson & Williamson are around Nashville & should be good for Bredesen...

But what about Hamilton?

Davidson is Nashville proper, Williamson is a staunchly-GOP suburb of Nashville (which swung to Hillary by a decent amount) and Hamilton is Chattanooga.

Davidson will probably be Bredesen's second biggest source of votes, next to Shelby/Memphis. He needs 70% or more in both counties in all likelihood.

Williamson was 64-29 in 2016 & 73-26 in 2012; Bredesen ideally needs to be in the very high 30s or low 40s there.

Hamilton was won by the GOP by around 15 points in the past 3 elections (Chattanooga is about 60% Democratic but is only 1/2 the county). Hard to see Bredesen winning statewide if he's not getting a high single-digit/double digit margin there.

What do you mean by Williamson swung to Hillary by a decent amount... yet is staunchly GOP?