TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Technocracy Timmy]

Voter registration nationwide and in Tennessee spiked after T Swift's Instagram post:

https://abc7.com/entertainment/voting-registrations-spike-after-taylor-swifts-political-post/4442341/

The Taylor Swift bump is real and will have more of an impact than Kavanaugh. White women will vote Democratic in droves.

This is a joke I hope

I actually agree with him. Swift's fan base is predominately young and female, ripe for the Democratic base. Idk if this will push Bredesen to victory in Tennessee, but she definitely did the Democrats a massive favor all across the nation.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi will only have Taylor Swift to thank.

I'm dead serious, my man.

Well she hasn’t helped much given that Bredesen is down by 14 points in the NYTimes poll. Only 120 responses so far, but still not looking good.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Voter registration nationwide and in Tennessee spiked after T Swift's Instagram post:

https://abc7.com/entertainment/voting-registrations-spike-after-taylor-swifts-political-post/4442341/

The Taylor Swift bump is real and will have more of an impact than Kavanaugh. White women will vote Democratic in droves.

This is a joke I hope

I actually agree with him. Swift's fan base is predominately young and female, ripe for the Democratic base. Idk if this will push Bredesen to victory in Tennessee, but she definitely did the Democrats a massive favor all across the nation.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi will only have Taylor Swift to thank.

I'm dead serious, my man.

Well she hasn’t helped much given that Bredesen is down by 14 points in the NYTimes poll. Only 120 responses so far, but still not looking good.

I literally said: "IDK if this will push Bredesen to victory in Tennessee". Read.

[Technocracy Timmy]

You know it

[Technocracy Timmy]

Do (enough) voters in TN not think Marsha is too nuts to be in the Senate??  Especially compared to a highly respected 2 term Governor?

If anyone had told me (prior to this year) that Blackburn would be in the Senate one day- I would have laughed out loud.  I completely do not understand- even a Republican state- electing her to the Senate??

That's why I think Bredesen still has a shot, despite the poll.  (Surely Bredesen has a treasure trove of footage on Blackburn, for attack ads... that would peel out enough moderate republicans?)

Well the state right below TN has fewer white evangelicals and far more black voters but still came within two points of electing a pedophile (who mind you, barely beat a statewide democrat with obama on the ballot in 2012).

The math for Bredesen is just piss poor. I feel bad for the guy since he’d probably be winning in the vast majority of other Trump states.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Just like how Ron Johnson was DOA, Anthony Brown was going to easily be elected governor, and Mark Warner was totally safe. Blackburn is still favored, but an upset is still very possible.

Given the RCP trend, the only upset on November will be you crying when Tennessee deplorables elect Marsha handedly.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

Are you seriously trying to reason with him? Bredesen could be leading by 10 and he would still call this Safe R based on his ridiculous assumptions about the Republican base.

Saving these for when Blackburn wins by 8 in two days.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Of course Blackburn's still favored to win, but there's still a couple of (garbagy) public polls having it tied and random chatter about internal polls showing it close which mirror the public behavior of the campaigns. Is it that hard to believe all of this is happening at once?

Well let’s take into account that Pew had TN as the most white evangelical state in 2014 - 52% of its total population. And that study also showed that over three times as many Gen X/baby boomer TN residents were white evangelicals than millennials and younger millenials were. So the voting electorate given age turnout differences is probably gonna be at least 60% white evangelical in 2 days.

White evangelicals nationally voted about 80-84% for a thrice married pussy grabbing New Yorker simply cuz of the magic R next to his name. 80% of white evangelicals in the state directly below TN voted for Roy Moore, an accused pedophile who was a notoriously weak candidate even prior to the allegations (he won by a parsley 4 points against a Democrat in 2012 - with Obama on the ballot).

If Blackburn simply wins 80% of whites evanglicals in her state, she’s at 48% of the total share of the electorate without a single voter from the 40% of Tennessee voters that aren’t white evangelicals. If she gets just a tiny 15% of those folks, she’s at 54% total.

Now I know some people love pointing out that “Bredesen was a beloved Governor way back when!” well gubernatorials even today aren’t stongly reflective of the federal leanings of a state (let alone in 2006). Phil Scott as a Republican won his state easily in 2016 despite being in Vermont and Jim Justice also won his state easily in 2016 despite having a D next to his name. Voters are far, far less partisan even today in their gubernatorial races compared to their federal races. And how these voters felt in 2006 of all years is especially less partisan.

There’s no magic solution for Bredesen to beat these fundamentals. If some people just took off their Pom poms and Democratic Party cheerleading for two seconds they’d see this.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

The demogaphics for TN (60%ish white evangelical voting population, very white Dixie state, etc) are infinitely worse for Democrats than in states like MO, IN, TX, etc. Seeing MO and IN decided by squeakers while TN votes 8 points for Blackburn is well within the cards.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Senator Roy Moore agrees with this post. "Alabama is too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

I take it you didn’t want to read my post earlier on the subject and try to respond to it so you went with this one sentence false analogy.

Not surprising that the same guy who thinks Ojeda will win also thinks Bredesen will win. You people are obsessed with rural-evangelical whites voting Democrat despite the fact that they hate 80% of what the Party stands for LOL.

[Technocracy Timmy]

We’re talking about a candidate who swept every county in 2006 and won by 39 points in said state, when demographics were slightly better for Dems but still very unfavorable. He has the adventage of being able to tap into a reservoir of residual goodwill/nostalgia and is uniquely suited to appeal to high propensity and center-right voters who are fine with Bill Lee but just can’t bring themselves to vote for a "shrill extremist/lunatic" over their Phil Bredesen.

I guess we’ll see on Tuesday, but I guarantee you if Blackburn actually wins by double digits on election night, then Democrats will have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race.

As I stated before, gubernatorials are VERY different from federal elections. Why did a Democratic Governor get elected in a Trump+42 state in 2016 by 7 points? (Justice switched to Republican later but the point stands lol) while that same year a Hillary+27 state (with 5% Bernie write ins) voted 7 points for their Republican Governor (Vermont).

You can’t assume that a governor’s race from 2006 will correlate even remotely to a federal race in 2018. TN even elected a Republican to the senate while voting 39 points for Bredesen that very same year.

If that doesn’t prove to you that gubernatorial races are vastly different than federal races then IDK what will.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Bredesen will likely lose but it's not because he ran a pretty bad campaign like Bayh, it's just that Tennessee is too red and evangelical. Bredesen was still the best chance for Democrats to win here.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump is a big time extrovert and narcissist who loves doing rallies and traveling across the country to hear adoring fans flock to him as he bashes all the people on his “not very nice” list. This is what fuels him even more than Diet Coke. The amazing thing about Trump is how often people attribute 4D chess strategy to him when 9 times out of 10 he’s just doing what makes him feel good.

Also what Icespear said right above me lol.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Um ok back on topic. Anybody else think Bredesen can break 70% in Davidson and Shelby county.

The evangelical white populations of those counties are only 33% and 28% respectively. HRC got 60 and 62% in both. I think he breaks 70% in both. His path to victory or a close race resides in cities and suburbs.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

The Bredesen cheerleaders in this thread have gotten so desperate they’re now citing supposed insider information from a Washington post opinion columnist on Twitter.

Imagine having a brain that powerful.

Not to mention two recent polls have the race tied and outside groups and the GOP are still spending on this race AND Trump is going today? Sure, that really sounds like Blackburn is up by 9.

Are you seriously trying to reason with him? Bredesen could be leading by 10 and he would still call this Safe R based on his ridiculous assumptions about the Republican base.

Saving these for when Blackburn wins by 8 in two days.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Me and Timmy tried to tell you guys, but you wouldn't listen...

Put down the pom poms next time.

The math just wasn’t there. Southern white evangelicals are too strong. But they didn’t listen...

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fun fact DTC pointed out to me: Phil Bredesen didn’t win a single county that Hillary Clinton lost. He also did far better than her in Nashville. Those 2016 trends are damn strong.

[Technocracy Timmy]

What I tell ya

[Technocracy Timmy]

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

[Technocracy Timmy]

-snip-

The 2016 trends are on steroids. The Kenyan Muslim Marxist did far better 10 years ago in rural TN than the former popular blue dog Governor.

Jesus Christ, lmao.

It's astounding to me how Bredesen managed to get to 44%, and still could not flip any of the counties Trump won. He seems to have gotten over the 40% mark by outperforming Hillary Clinton in Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, and Knoxville, and to a lesser extent, in the Nashville suburbs.

Yeah this is amazing given the the fact that Bredesen historically had such a blue dog rural heavy coalition. It’s important to remember that he did worse in Davidson and Shelby county in 2002 when he won statewide by 3 than Hillary Clinton did despite losing statewide by 26. He lost by 11 points in the end when Hillary lost by 24 and he still didn’t net gain any counties over her.

I think this suggest that future senate wins for Democrats in these type of red states will have to come from supercharging the cities and suburbs while accepting heavy losses in the countryside. There’s just no other path.