Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
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  Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
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Poll
Question: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Not sure
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 101

Author Topic: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?  (Read 2754 times)
progressive85
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« on: September 12, 2017, 09:30:54 AM »

A lot can happen in a year, so its not really possible to know what the electorate's mood will be by late October 2018, when a lot of the close races will break one way or another.

I'm in the "not sure" group.  I don't even care about the polls.  The only poll that matters are the votes that are counted on Election Day.  I think it certainly will be a big challenge for Team Blue to get those 24 seats.

If they don't, is Nancy Pelosi gone by 2020?  Do the Democrats give up on the House in 2020?  Does it motivate the party or cause it to lose hope of defeating Donald Trump?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2017, 09:32:25 AM »

Not sure, all because of gerrymandering and polarization.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2017, 09:44:09 AM »

Honestly, I don't know. It's tough to overcome the gerrymandering that much. Democrats must win the PV by at least five points or so to be anywhere near 218 seats. That's possible, I guess. If Trump's approval rating stays at its current level, I think the GOP will narrowly hold on (225-230 seats). If he is under 33% approval permanently in the months before the election, Democrats have a decent shot to win. But I warn my fellow Democrats not just to run on a pure Anti-Trump message. We also need to make the case what we're standing for. Democrats will make net gains, that's 99% certain. So, in the worst case about 2012 levels, at best narrow control of the House. Probably maxed out at 225 seats. Gun to my head? I say GOP control with approximately 225 seats.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2017, 09:48:14 AM »

Not sure. Probably - right now rather no, then yes. But everything may still change...
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progressive85
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2017, 09:56:09 AM »

If the Republicans have a decreased majority (around 220-225 seats), how does the change the House?  Will it make it more bipartisan because of the need to get votes from both parties to pass anything?

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2017, 10:30:20 AM »

If the Republicans have a decreased majority (around 220-225 seats), how does the change the House?  Will it make it more bipartisan because of the need to get votes from both parties to pass anything?

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?

Democratic gains will be at the expense of moderate Republicans and in addition we might have Trumpist primary challenges happening. It will be polarized and dysfunctional as ever is my guess.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2017, 10:34:16 AM »

no
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2017, 11:18:30 AM »

Yes
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2017, 11:19:40 AM »

I'd say the house is Lean R atm, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Dems could take it.  I just don't see it atm.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2017, 11:26:25 AM »

Yes, but narrowly.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2017, 11:45:43 AM »


Same here.  Based on the way things look now, I'd guess they'll pick up about 35 seats (+/-5).
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2017, 11:51:28 AM »

There a lot of indicators right now that we'll take the house back. The generic ballot poll is about 9 or 10 points right now. Democrats are recruiting string candidates even in districts they have no real chance of contesting. Congressional Dems are retiring en mass. Things can change by then but I don't expect it to.
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Orser67
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2017, 01:07:56 PM »

With the Republican retirements (that have already happened and will probably continue to happen), good Democratic recruits, and an unpopular Republican president, I think Democrats are slightly favored to retake the House.

I think a net pick-up of 10 seats is probably the floor for Democrats. Such a loss of seats would leave House Republicans in a very tough position given the divisions in their caucus.
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2017, 01:26:21 PM »

If the Republicans have a decreased majority (around 220-225 seats), how does the change the House?  Will it make it more bipartisan because of the need to get votes from both parties to pass anything?

Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?
I thinks in that scenario you would probably see the freedom caucus force out of Ryan as speaker for his perceived failures. In that case one big possibility is that I can see whatever remaining moderate republicans in the house making a deal with the democrats to govern in a coalition.

I believe this is how the Texas house of representatives is run and it would not surprise me if this is what we will end up with this at some point in the future.
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tallguy23
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2017, 02:32:18 PM »

As of now....yes. Trump is way too unpopular.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2017, 02:38:05 PM »

Not sure. The environment certainly favors it, but the map doesn't - Dems have a much, much tougher route to the majority than the Reps did in 2010.

That being said, the map is opening up - Reichert, Dent and Trott are probably just the beginning.

If you asked me 3 months ago I would've said almost definitely not. Now... I'm not sure.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2017, 08:58:31 AM »


Does anyone think its likely for a near split (218-217) to occur?  Has that ever happened before?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1930
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: September 13, 2017, 09:45:51 AM »


Interesting article.  I was struck by this:

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Doesn't that seem like a lot of deaths between the election and the new Congress?  Is that unprecedented?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #18 on: September 13, 2017, 09:51:53 AM »


Interesting article.  I was struck by this:

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Doesn't that seem like a lot of deaths between the election and the new Congress?  Is that unprecedented?

Life expectancy/mortality rate was a lot lower/higher back then.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #19 on: September 13, 2017, 10:25:33 AM »

Lean no.  I think they'll make gains, but will come up frustratingly short in some crucial races. 
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Figueira
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2017, 12:54:37 PM »

Voted "I don't know."

It's within reach. I'd say out of the 23 Clinton/R seats, there are 14 or so that should be easy-ish pickups for Democrats. Not guaranteed, but they could easily fall. After that we need 10 more. Out of all the vaguely Lean R seats, from ME-02 to IL-06 to KY-06 to MI-11 to KS-02 to WA-03, I'd say at least 10 of them flipping is not that unlikely.

But Democrats can easily mess things up, so who knows.

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Vosem
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2017, 01:22:08 PM »

Yes. My general suspicion is that most seats at R+4 or less will, excepting seats with strong incumbents and seats with strong pro-Trump trends, fall under current presidential approval/generic ballot conditions; you can add a couple that are more Republican but have very white liberal enclaves (the specific seats I'm thinking of are those of Rodney Davis, Tom Reed, and Tom Garrett, all of whom under current conditions I might even consider disfavored). Should add up to around 30 seats flipping or so, controlling for some local factors like the California GOP being especially screwed by D-v.-D races upballot while Pennsylvania GOP representatives tend to be very entrenched even in unfavorable seats.

Voted "I don't know."

It's within reach. I'd say out of the 23 Clinton/R seats, there are 14 or so that should be easy-ish pickups for Democrats. Not guaranteed, but they could easily fall. After that we need 10 more. Out of all the vaguely Lean R seats, from ME-02 to IL-06 to KY-06 to MI-11 to KS-02 to WA-03, I'd say at least 10 of them flipping is not that unlikely.

But Democrats can easily mess things up, so who knows.

Except MI-11, which was probably a Top Ten (and definitely Top Fifteen) pickup opportunity even before Trott's retirement, I would say all of those seats flip after Democrats have already taken the House, especially KY-6 and WA-3 which are both probably past seat 40.
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Figueira
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2017, 01:33:38 PM »

Yes. My general suspicion is that most seats at R+4 or less will, excepting seats with strong incumbents and seats with strong pro-Trump trends, fall under current presidential approval/generic ballot conditions; you can add a couple that are more Republican but have very white liberal enclaves (the specific seats I'm thinking of are those of Rodney Davis, Tom Reed, and Tom Garrett, all of whom under current conditions I might even consider disfavored). Should add up to around 30 seats flipping or so, controlling for some local factors like the California GOP being especially screwed by D-v.-D races upballot while Pennsylvania GOP representatives tend to be very entrenched even in unfavorable seats.

Voted "I don't know."

It's within reach. I'd say out of the 23 Clinton/R seats, there are 14 or so that should be easy-ish pickups for Democrats. Not guaranteed, but they could easily fall. After that we need 10 more. Out of all the vaguely Lean R seats, from ME-02 to IL-06 to KY-06 to MI-11 to KS-02 to WA-03, I'd say at least 10 of them flipping is not that unlikely.

But Democrats can easily mess things up, so who knows.

Except MI-11, which was probably a Top Ten (and definitely Top Fifteen) pickup opportunity even before Trott's retirement, I would say all of those seats flip after Democrats have already taken the House, especially KY-6 and WA-3 which are both probably past seat 40.

I wasn't saying those seats are actually in the top 24, just that they're examples of seats in the 50 or so seat pool that Dems only need 10 of to win.
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windjammer
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2017, 02:19:20 PM »

It's less and less unlikely with all these retirements.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2017, 02:52:18 PM »

It's less and less unlikely with all these retirements.
Don't you mean more and more likely? These retirements help the Democrats.
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