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| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
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Question: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?
Yes   -53 (53%)
No   -28 (28%)
Not sure   -19 (19%)
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Total Voters: 100

Author Topic: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?  (Read 1630 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2017, 05:31:42 pm »
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It's less and less unlikely with all these retirements.
Don't you mean more and more likely? These retirements help the Democrats.

Aren't "less and less unlikely" and "more and more likely" the same thing?
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2017, 10:42:23 pm »
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I'm cautiously optimistic -but if we wind up on January 3, 2019 with both the House and Senate evenly divided with only a single seat separating one party from the majority in either chamber (in the Senate's case, Vice-President Mike Pence will be the saving grace of the Republican majority there), I wouldn't be shocked.
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2017, 10:44:32 pm »
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I continue to be doubtful after the GA-6 fail. But these retirements certainly help dems.
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« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2017, 11:04:53 pm »
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I think it'll be fairly close either way. My guess right now is that they come up a bit short, but I could see the House going Democratic if we see more Republican retirements.
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« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2017, 01:48:56 am »
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So, looking at the last house speaker floor vote, there were 4 democrats that did not vote Pelosi. Now, Sinema is out of the picture as she is running for Senate, and Kathleen Rice and Ron Kind would follow the party line if their vote mattered. But what about Jim Cooper? He has always hated the idea of voting Pelosi for speaker, even occasionally voting for Colin Powell to prove his point. If the house is 218-217 D, and Jim Cooper votes for someone else for speaker, and all republicans vote their party line, then the speaker vote is 217-217-1, which sends us into an unpredictable second ballot situation. So if the democrats want this house majority, they better go for at least 25 seats, not settle for 24.
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'18 House Rating: Lean R (11/7: Strong Lean R -> Lean R)
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« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2017, 09:06:38 am »
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So, looking at the last house speaker floor vote, there were 4 democrats that did not vote Pelosi. Now, Sinema is out of the picture as she is running for Senate, and Kathleen Rice and Ron Kind would follow the party line if their vote mattered. But what about Jim Cooper? He has always hated the idea of voting Pelosi for speaker, even occasionally voting for Colin Powell to prove his point. If the house is 218-217 D, and Jim Cooper votes for someone else for speaker, and all republicans vote their party line, then the speaker vote is 217-217-1, which sends us into an unpredictable second ballot situation. So if the democrats want this house majority, they better go for at least 25 seats, not settle for 24.

I can't see Jim Cooper sabotaging Democrats' House majority just because he has an axe to grind. Just because he hates Pelosi doesn't mean he'd rather have Ryan as speaker. But if top Dems are really worried about that, they should fund a primary challenge.

Also Sinema is not officially running for Senate yet.
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« Reply #31 on: September 15, 2017, 04:52:35 pm »
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I'm not sure. Given Trump's current popularity and historical precedence, I think they are favored. But I can't shake the feeling that gerrymandering and polarization will ultimately save the GOP here. I'm guessing we'll end up with a more or less evenly divided House with it being a coin flip as to whether it is a narrow GOP or Dem majority.
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« Reply #32 on: September 15, 2017, 06:00:33 pm »
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Yes, but narrowly.
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« Reply #33 on: September 15, 2017, 07:20:42 pm »
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As of right now, yes, but a lot can change in 14 months.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #34 on: September 20, 2017, 04:02:22 pm »
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Given the gerrymandering, even if Dems win all of the seats I see as most vulnerable for GOP, I can only get Dems to around 213-214.  Dems badly need to win/hold governorships in MI/OH/PA and force fair maps in those states.  That would almost immediately give Dems another 5 or 6 seats.
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« Reply #35 on: September 20, 2017, 04:05:27 pm »
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What is the likelihood that, as in 2012, Democratic House candidates win the national popular vote, but fail to win a majority of the seats?

I'd say that has an over 50% chance of happening
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2017/18 Gubernatorial Endorsements:
AL - Kay Ivey (R)
CA - Gavin Newsom (D)
FL - Adam Putnam (R)
GA - Brian Kemp (R)
ID - Brad Little (R)
MI - Bill Schutte (R)
TN - Randy Boyd (R)

VA - Ed Gillespie (R)
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« Reply #36 on: September 20, 2017, 05:04:45 pm »
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What is the likelihood that, as in 2012, Democratic House candidates win the national popular vote, but fail to win a majority of the seats?

I'd say there's about a 54% chance that Dems win the popular vote and the House, a 45% chance that Democrats win the popular vote but not the House, and a 1% chance that Republicans win the popular vote and the House.

I can't see Jim Cooper sabotaging Democrats' House majority just because he has an axe to grind.

I don't think Cooper et. al would vote for a Republican, but they could definitely unseat Pelosi as the Democratic leader and/or force her to make policy promises. A similar situation happened in 1923 with progressive Republicans and Speaker Fredrick Gillett.
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