Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?

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Voted "I don't know."

It's within reach. I'd say out of the 23 Clinton/R seats, there are 14 or so that should be easy-ish pickups for Democrats. Not guaranteed, but they could easily fall. After that we need 10 more. Out of all the vaguely Lean R seats, from ME-02 to IL-06 to KY-06 to MI-11 to KS-02 to WA-03, I'd say at least 10 of them flipping is not that unlikely.

But Democrats can easily mess things up, so who knows.

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Yes. My general suspicion is that most seats at R+4 or less will, excepting seats with strong incumbents and seats with strong pro-Trump trends, fall under current presidential approval/generic ballot conditions; you can add a couple that are more Republican but have very white liberal enclaves (the specific seats I'm thinking of are those of Rodney Davis, Tom Reed, and Tom Garrett, all of whom under current conditions I might even consider disfavored). Should add up to around 30 seats flipping or so, controlling for some local factors like the California GOP being especially screwed by D-v.-D races upballot while Pennsylvania GOP representatives tend to be very entrenched even in unfavorable seats.

Voted "I don't know."

It's within reach. I'd say out of the 23 Clinton/R seats, there are 14 or so that should be easy-ish pickups for Democrats. Not guaranteed, but they could easily fall. After that we need 10 more. Out of all the vaguely Lean R seats, from ME-02 to IL-06 to KY-06 to MI-11 to KS-02 to WA-03, I'd say at least 10 of them flipping is not that unlikely.

But Democrats can easily mess things up, so who knows.

Except MI-11, which was probably a Top Ten (and definitely Top Fifteen) pickup opportunity even before Trott's retirement, I would say all of those seats flip after Democrats have already taken the House, especially KY-6 and WA-3 which are both probably past seat 40.

I wasn't saying those seats are actually in the top 24, just that they're examples of seats in the 50 or so seat pool that Dems only need 10 of to win.

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So, looking at the last house speaker floor vote, there were 4 democrats that did not vote Pelosi. Now, Sinema is out of the picture as she is running for Senate, and Kathleen Rice and Ron Kind would follow the party line if their vote mattered. But what about Jim Cooper? He has always hated the idea of voting Pelosi for speaker, even occasionally voting for Colin Powell to prove his point. If the house is 218-217 D, and Jim Cooper votes for someone else for speaker, and all republicans vote their party line, then the speaker vote is 217-217-1, which sends us into an unpredictable second ballot situation. So if the democrats want this house majority, they better go for at least 25 seats, not settle for 24.

I can't see Jim Cooper sabotaging Democrats' House majority just because he has an axe to grind. Just because he hates Pelosi doesn't mean he'd rather have Ryan as speaker. But if top Dems are really worried about that, they should fund a primary challenge.

Also Sinema is not officially running for Senate yet.