Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018?

[Orser67]

With the Republican retirements (that have already happened and will probably continue to happen), good Democratic recruits, and an unpopular Republican president, I think Democrats are slightly favored to retake the House.

I think a net pick-up of 10 seats is probably the floor for Democrats. Such a loss of seats would leave House Republicans in a very tough position given the divisions in their caucus.

[Orser67]

What is the likelihood that, as in 2012, Democratic House candidates win the national popular vote, but fail to win a majority of the seats?

I'd say there's about a 54% chance that Dems win the popular vote and the House, a 45% chance that Democrats win the popular vote but not the House, and a 1% chance that Republicans win the popular vote and the House.

I can't see Jim Cooper sabotaging Democrats' House majority just because he has an axe to grind.

I don't think Cooper et. al would vote for a Republican, but they could definitely unseat Pelosi as the Democratic leader and/or force her to make policy promises. A similar situation happened in 1923 with progressive Republicans and Speaker Fredrick Gillett.