What cities did Hillary win in Oklahoma?

[Adam Griffin]

This may help.

[Adam Griffin]

It might be worth taking a closer look at OKC, since precise numbers weren't posted.

However, if you take a look at DRA and include the precincts predominantly in OKC from 2008 (precinct boundaries don't align perfectly with municipal boundaries), McCain won the city (including the portions of the city in Canadian County) by 13. Oklahoma County was won by McCain by 17 points.

Compared to 2016, the county swung to Clinton by 7 points (Trump +10). A uniform swing in OKC would put the city at Trump +6, but the trends we saw in 2016 generally align more with suburban areas swinging to Clinton more than urban areas - of course, this definition is largely useless in OKC.

If anybody wants to take the time to figure out the closest discernible answer, then here's some help: I've isolated the precincts that are predominantly in OKC city limits in Oklahoma/Canadian Counties (and blotted out the rest; in green). If someone has the patience, they could just add up the precinct-by-precincts totals for each candidate with the link I posted above and get the final numbers:

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ Good idea about the spreadsheet! So I went ahead and did it:

Here's the OKC 2016 spreadsheet data. I've put two tabs there (one for 2014 Mayor - precinct IDs/county only - and one for 2016 with all of that + the election results).

Now, of course I am not going to try to split precincts here in the cases where only partial precincts fall into the city. However, look at what these numbers are showing:

OKC 2016 Total:

Trump	97,085	52.09%	+11.48
Clinton	75,686	40.61%
Johnson	13,616	7.31%

Clinton lost Oklahoma County by 10.5, but ended up losing the city as a whole by one point more?!


Goes to show you how powerful Canadian County is in the results:

OKC (Canadian County only) 2016 Total:

Trump	22,072	71.63%	+50.03
Clinton	6,654	21.60%
Johnson	2,086	6.77%

OKC (Oklahoma County only) 2016 Total:

Trump	75,013	48.22%	+3.85
Clinton	69,032	44.37%
Johnson	11,530	7.41%

[Adam Griffin]

The Oklahoma City results in Oklahoma County compared to Canadian County stand out immediately even from a basic Poly-Sci compare & contrast model.

It is also interesting that your data suggests that precincts located outside of OKC tended to vote slightly more Democratic than the County at large.... Sure these numbers most likely are minor variances, but still it doesn't really fit the CW and patterns  of '16 PRES GE results.

I was going to point out that this broader observation broke my brain for a second. I was sitting there wondering "how can the non-OKC Oklahoma County precincts be more Democratic than the city proper?!", since Trump won the city by more than he won Oklahoma County. Of course, even though I knew Canadian County was skewing the results, it took me a minute to put it all together.

Based on the data, it would appear that non-OKC Oklahoma County voted for Trump by 19 (56-37), and OKC Oklahoma County voted for Trump by 4 (48-44), giving us the Trump win of 10.5 points countywide (52-41).

I thought the most interesting part was how closely OKC Canadian County resembled the remainder of Canadian County; the OKC portion was only about 1 point more Democratic than Canadian County as a whole. That just goes to show you how OKC isn't a real city by many standards (especially the portions in Canadian County). Even though it's only about 1/6 of the city's voters, they make the difference between a swing city and a pretty solidly-Republican one.