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Author Topic: 2017-2018 Attorneys General Predictions  (Read 381 times)
PragmaticPopulist
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« on: September 12, 2017, 05:36:43 pm »
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For anyone who cares, here's what I think:



AL - Steve Marshall is running for a full term, but things could get interesting in the primary since he was appointed by Bentley. Safe R
AZ - Mark Brnovich is running for reelection. January Contreras seems to be a credible candidate though. Likely R
AR - Leslie Rutledge is running for reelection. Nothing interesting here. Safe R
CA - Whether Becerra runs for reelection or not, Safe D
CO - Coffman hasn't announced whether she'll run for reelection, but either way, this looks like it'll be a tough position to hold. Tossup
CT - George Jetson Jepsen is running for reelection. Rs haven't won this seat since 1954. Safe D
DE - Matt Denn is not running for reelection. While it might look like an easy D hold, it could end up being a dark horse for Republicans. Likely D
FL - An open seat. The infamous FL D party appears to be largely ignoring it though. Leans R
GA - This is a pseudo-open seat, so it could potentially be competitive, especially if John Barrow runs. Likely R
ID - Moving on. Safe R
IL - The name Madigan is on the ballot, but voters seem to know the difference between the Attorney General and her stepfather. This is now an open seat. Ds are still heavily favored to keep it though. Safe D
IA - Ds have held this position since 1979, and if Tom Miller retires, they may not be able to keep it, unless 2016 was a one-off and not the new normal for Iowa. Leans D
KS - Depending on how widespread anti-Brownback backlash is, this position may be a dark horse for Democrats; they held it as recently as from 2006 to 2010. Likely R
MD - Frosh easily won in 2014 even as Hogan was winning. Safe D
MA - Safe D
MI - An open seat. No one has declared yet, but it should be a competitive race. Tossup
MN - Swanson hasn't announced her plans for 2018 yet, but whether she retires or not, Ds should be at least slightly favored to hold the position. Likely D
NE - Safe R
NV - See Colorado. Ds have a decent bench here. Tossup
NM - Balderas isn't going anywhere. Safe D
NY - Prediction: Schneiderman runs for reelection. Safe D
ND - Safe R
OH - DeWine is term-limited and both sides appear to have strong candidates. Tossup
OK - Safe R
RI - Safe D
SC - Safe R
SD - Safe R
TX - Safe R
VA - If Mark Herring loses, it'll be because he was running against a guy named John Adams. In all seriousness, I think this will depend on the results of the Governor's race. Leans D
WI - Again, this will probably depend on how the Governor's race turns out. Schimel is running for reelection, and Josh Kaul, a former federal prosecutor, has declared for the D nomination, and seems like a serious candidate. Leans R
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 09:14:56 am by Old Liner »Logged

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