How does Ohio trend in the 2020 general election?
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Author Topic: How does Ohio trend in the 2020 general election?  (Read 545 times)
History505
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« on: September 15, 2017, 07:08:25 PM »
Trump won it be a pretty decent margin in 2016, do you think it stays Republican or trends back to the Democrats?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2017, 07:17:40 PM »
I could see a decent swing and trend back towards Democrats, but Trump will probably carry it, barring 1980-esque results against him.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2017, 07:51:10 PM »
Most likely a swing to the democrats.
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AN63093
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2017, 12:08:06 AM »
Trend or swing?

Trend, I have no idea.. it's a little too early to predict that until we get an idea of what the national PV will be.

Swing, probably D... it was one of the states that swung R the most and I don't know how much more R it can go (at least in the immediate short term), so I expect it'll probably come back a little bit, though I think Trump will still win it.  As large as OH's swing was though, I actually think IA was more impressive (R+15).
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2017, 12:17:52 AM »
A key indicator of how Ohio goes are the Senate and Governor's races in 2018 (especially the Senate race). If Republicans win both (unlikely at this point, as Josh Mandel is a horrible candidate, but they are favored in the Governor's race), than Ohio could easily Swing further R. If they lose both (which is possible, if Sutton wins the nomination, or Cordray jumps in), Ohio could swing D, and maybe even flip depending on who the nominee is (especially if it's Sherrod Brown or Joe Biden)
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2017, 01:40:35 AM »
It'll probably trend at least a bit D. Regression to the mean, and all that.
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Blue3
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2017, 02:29:06 AM »
Wasn't Ohio more Republican than Texas in 2016?
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cvparty
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2017, 09:16:25 AM »
too far out to say really, but I have a hunch it'll trend D (though not all the way back to its pre-'16 lean)
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2017, 09:46:58 AM »
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TML
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2017, 11:19:43 AM »
I think the final result will probably be R+2-4% (which is what the final pre-election day polls in 2016 predicted).
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Coraxion
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2017, 12:10:20 PM »
Ohio, like the other 49 states, will swing D.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2017, 01:21:51 PM »
Quote from: Coraxion on September 16, 2017, 12:10:20 PM
Ohio, like the other 49 states, will swing D.
There is usually  one state that swings to the losing party.
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SWE
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2017, 08:32:43 PM »
Quote from: Blue3 on September 16, 2017, 02:29:06 AM
Wasn't Ohio more Republican than Texas in 2016?
Close, but not quite
TX: 52-43
OH: 51-43
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