Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.

Schreiner's position on the selling of marijuana has been quite unpopular on the left, particularly amongst the Green party core.  I can't see him being a factor with those kinds of positions.

He ran in Guelph in 2014 also and got nearly 20% there (and almost knocked the PCs into third, did knock the NDP into fourth) then, so clearly he is "a factor," even if he doesn't win.

I don't often consider candidates who receive less than 20% of the vote to be a "factor".  Admittedly, what each one of us considers to be "a factor" is a subjective thing. 

When it's the Greens 20% counts as a factor. It's enough to start generating weird results.

[DC Al Fine]

I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

[DC Al Fine]

Obviously it made no sense to vote strategically for the Liberals, especially coming off the 2011 (it was the 2011 provincial election, not 2007, how soon I forget these things) federal election where the Liberals finished third. People were duped, hook line and sinker.

Yup. Sadly voters don't look that up. In 2004, half a dozen Tory MP's in BC and Saskatchewan owed their jobs to people voting Liberal to "Stop Harper" where the NDP was the most credible competition to the Tories

[DC Al Fine]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

[DC Al Fine]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions

[DC Al Fine]

Harman, I generally agree with your assessment (with some quibbles). Just wanted to double-check you were reasonable...
I once worked with an NDP supporter who thought my lifestyle was too poor to constitute a 'living wage' despite my household income being around the national median at the time

Well, with "fast fashion" being a huge problem, maybe the cost should cover one piece of quality (made in Canada?) clothing, which would be the equivalent of a few articles of made in China crap.

I think the above discussion is a good example of why these calculations (and policies in general) should be done as simply as possible. Different people will have different needs, preferences etc. (E.g. Urban vs suburban vs rural, white vs blue collar etc) Deciding on the appropriate amount and quality of clothing smacks of nanny statism.

It'd be far better in my opinion if the government came up with figures for the major categories slapped on a decent fudge factor for the remaining things and left it up to the people to figure out how to spend it.

[DC Al Fine]

That being said if the PCs only get a minority, do you think the Liberals and NDP will gang up to keep them out or let them form a minority?  I would like to hear what some Liberal or NDP supporters think.

I really doubt they do. This wouldn't be Ontario 1985 or BC 2017 where the many term incumbent is nearly defeated and the cooperation puts the challengers over the top. Nor would it be Canada 1972, where the incumbent government is still in first place. The Ontario government is deeply unpopular and mired in scandal. The media's post election narrative would almost certainly be about the Liberal party being chastened. I don't see what the NDP would gain by propping that government up, when they can attack the Tories instead.

[DC Al Fine]

I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

I will now accept my accolades.

[DC Al Fine]

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

This looks like the best approach.

The writ drop is in like four months. Seems way too short of a time to have a convention and introduce a new leader to the public. Far better to do a British style caucus vote and give the new leader time to get up to speed.

[DC Al Fine]

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

[DC Al Fine]

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

My point was he was a terrible Premier. Probably the Canadian politician I loathe the most. And yes, I know being from North Bay has nothing to do with anything. Some good people there (my Dad's from there), but Harris was not one of them.

I know, I just thought it was funny that there was a very different way for the Tories to interpret 'leader from North Bay' than what you were saying.

[DC Al Fine]

From the Star!

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

"History rarely repeats itself directly. A lot can happen between now and June 7. But if, as the politicians seem to think, the upcoming election becomes a referendum on whether to oust Wynne, then voters will be looking for a credible alternative to the Liberals — one that will be different but not too different." - this has been my point, is that the policies are popular, and with the details being different Horwath and the NDP are basically ready to slip in and continue on the changes made and move even more to the left.

Hints of 1990? basically with the PCs having to clean house and start all over again from a leaders perspective, the NDP is becoming the Alternative to the OLP.

Elliott is no longer an MPP, but that might not really matter too much if she wants the job. There was also mention of MPs Raitt and O"Toole could be interested in running for the leader. But already were seeing reports of the split between the hard-right, centre-right within the PCs. 

In an ideal world, the new Tory leader would:
a) be a woman to help counteract Brown
b) not be affiliated with a particular faction to help unify the party

Coming from outside caucus might help with criteria b, but Raitt is a Red Tory, as is Lisa MacLeod (I think). Does anyone in caucus fit the bill?

[DC Al Fine]

Fedeli just ruled himself out.

Well that throws things wide open. Too bad the Tories couldn't have had this worked out last week.

[DC Al Fine]

Mainstreet has another poll out which shows under three different leaders the PCs are in the lead

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/post-patrick-brown-poll-certainty-ontario-uncertainty/

Looking through it, Mulroney seems the best choice.  Phillips could work out well but not well known so could go either way.  Ford has a strong base but very polarizing.  My guess is if a moderate person takes over and the PCs fall short of a majority but still win a plurality of seats, Wynne will step down and let them form government whereas if it is led by Ford and they fall short, the NDP and Liberals will gang up to keep him out of office.  That will drive the Ford Nation crazy, but there will probably be less blowback than if they did this with any other leader.

I would be more hesitant about Mulroney. Political neophytes can be liabilities as leaders.

[DC Al Fine]

Not sure how accurate this seat projection model is but it seems the PC vote is very inefficient. The PC would need a lead over the liberals of about 7% just to win the most seats and a 12% or so  lead to win a majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

It’s definitely a little dodgy in the PC projection numbers. Ridings such as Markham-Stouffville, Sault. Ste. Maire, King-Vaughan and Ajax are more likely going PC in June.

It looks like the model is using the 2014 election as a base without taking into account regional polls (compare the Ontario simulator with the Canada one). The PC's did poorly in the 905 in 2014, so they underperform there in the projection model. This explains why the Liberals are projected to hold a majority of the 905 despite trailing there in the polls. The model is taking those 905 PCers  and using them to project supermajorities in rural southern Ontario.

[DC Al Fine]

Brown is running.

Wtf?

[DC Al Fine]

I'm with Panda and Miles on this one. Brown burned his bridges with the socons which leaves irreligious populists as his main target... But why would someone like that first preference Brown when they have Doug Ford as an option? Honestly a 50/50 chance of making it off the first ballot is more than fair oddsmaking if he's allowed to run.

[DC Al Fine]

Is there any way Brown creates/leads another party into the election if he isn't allowed to run for the leadership?

Especially given how close we are to the election, I see that as impossible.

The Trillium Party website shows no candidate yet for Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte (or 95 other ridings).

My favourite Trillium Party policy: "There can be no computerized artificial intelligence used in the creation of legislation, regulation or policy. This is to ensure the ministry creating the legislation, regulation and policy are accountable for the document they are creating."  What the hell does that mean?

Doubt it happens but it would be hilarious if Brown and MacLaren were on the same slate.

[DC Al Fine]

Brown's dropping out and won't endorse anyone.

Yay

[DC Al Fine]

Am I the only one that thinks all this is creating a perfect storm for Horwath a la Notley in 2015?

Or Bob Rae in 1990.

Maybe. Let's see how the PC leadership plays out though.

[DC Al Fine]

Am I the only one that thinks all this is creating a perfect storm for Horwath a la Notley in 2015?

Or Bob Rae in 1990.

Go back a few pages, I posted two articles from The Star and I think the Globe&Mail saying just this! shades of 90'.

The NDP has a highly valued/mildly well known candidate in University-Rosedale, Jessica Bell from the transit advocacy group TTCRiders, and has been in place for months; The Toronto Centre NDP race has three candidates from what I can see (two openly gay men, the other a female indigenous candidate), I believe the nomination race is in March. But haven't heard anything about Spadina-Fort York. You can see how they have prioritized them. Lost opportunity in SpFY i think with the weak Han Dong in a riding that could swing with NDP or Liberal.

Another one:

http://albertapolitics.ca/2018/02/andrea-horwath-will-ontarios-next-premier-remember-heard-first-albertans/

From an Alberta perspective/comparison

Main takeaway from this speculation is that campaigns matter. Let the Tories pick their leader, and the campaign start. If Horwath makes some noise, she could definitely win. OTOH this speculation often veers into parallelomania by ignoring factors that contradict the narrative. (E.g. This won't be a snap election like Alberta and the Tories have been out of power for 15 years, not 5 like in 1990)

[DC Al Fine]

Prediction: Christine Elliott wins the leadership on the 2nd ballot.

Do you mean 3rd ballot? I can’t imagine Granic Allen’s supporters pulling her over the edge.

True. 3rd or 4th ballot. Caroline Mulroney could be the king or queen maker if she comes in a distant third. I really hope to see Christine Elliott win.

Anyone else want to make any predictions?

Sure. A couple guesses:

Ford and Allen overperform, Mulroney and Elliott underperform, but Elliott manages to take it in a squeaker.

[DC Al Fine]

Also the Libertarians seem to have their act together. They have over 70 candidates according to wiki.

[DC Al Fine]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

[DC Al Fine]

Of course, I don't understand conservatives very well,

Don't sell yourself short. I'd say you're more knowledgeable than 95% of MSM pundits, even on conservatism.

Well it hasn't helped that there were 13 years between federal leadership races, so not much experience to figure out what kind of factions existed within the Conservative Party membership. Provincially, I hadn't paid much attention to the 2009 race, and so all I know about the hive mind of the Tories in this province I learned from the last federal and provincial races.

In other words what I have learned is that social conservatives may not be a majority of the party (be they from minority communities or from evangelicals or Catholics, etc), but they vote as a bloc, and are a very important constituency in terms of winning the leadership. Both Andrew Scheer and Patrick Brown can thank them for their victories.

So, this is why I think Doug Ford will win. He will get most of Patrick Brown's votes, plus anything that Granic Allen can pull in.  However, his biggest hurdle will be ensuring he can galvanize enough of Patrick Brown's supporters behind him to the point where they actually vote. Many, I think will not bother.

I am very curious to see the extent of 'Fordnation' outside of the 416. Obviously it will extend to the immigrant rich suburbs of Toronto such as Markham and Brampton, and he's probably also popular with the Italians in Vaughan. How well will he do with White conservatives in the rest of the province though?

Id be rather surprised if Browns support doesnt leak to Mulroney, she seems to be that brand of politician and the most likely to play the red tory card.

That would assume that Patrick Brown's support is "Red Tory", which it is not. And also assumes that Caroline Mulroney is a Red Tory, which she is not.

Is Red Tory even a meaningful phrase anymore? It seems to be applied to the "I'm fiscally conservative but socially liberal" types, but Red Tory really isn't a synonym for classical liberal. It doesn't seem like a useful term except when applied to a few Maritimers.