Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[PeteB]

Well, I was well off, but I was expecting a better result from the NDP in the SW and North, and for a much better Liberal result overall.

Riding-wise, I was way off on thoughts that people like Del Duca and Naqvi can withstand the wave, and that NDP will hold on to more of the SW.  On the positive side, I correctly predicted some seats, such as Liberal wins in TBSN, Ottawa South and Scarborough Guildwood and PC wins in SSM.

All, in all not an unexpected result and certainly statistically the most probable one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I was well off

Yup

Y'all need to trust me more. I've been doing these prediction things since high school.

[jaichind]

I was quite a bit off on both predictions, but I don't think anyone was expecting such a huge majority for the PCs..

I would make the self-serving argument that I sort of did.  While I do not have the knowledge or expertise to venture a guess on how vote share convert to seats I did roughly get the PC-NCP relative vote share correct and asserted that PC will get a large majority with "large" being very ill defined.

I know very little but I might as well try

PC         40%
NDP       32%
LIB        22%
Green      4%
Other      2%

My view is LIB and PC are under-polled and in the end a lot of NDP leaning LIB voters will still vote LIB.  No idea of seats other than large PC majority.  

[DabbingSanta]

I was quite a bit off on both predictions, but I don't think anyone was expecting such a huge majority for the PCs..

I would make the self-serving argument that I sort of did.  While I do not have the knowledge or expertise to venture a guess on how vote share convert to seats I did roughly get the PC-NCP relative vote share correct and asserted that PC will get a large majority with "large" being very ill defined.

I know very little but I might as well try

PC         40%
NDP       32%
LIB        22%
Green      4%
Other      2%

My view is LIB and PC are under-polled and in the end a lot of NDP leaning LIB voters will still vote LIB.  No idea of seats other than large PC majority.  

Nice!

[King of Kensington]

My most-off predictions were Kenora (forgot that Greg Rickford was running and the NDP candidate was an idiot) and I guess Brampton South.  Don't feel bad about my "unorthodox" calls for Etobicoke Lakeshore and Ottawa West-Nepean.  Was overly optimistic about the NDP's chances in Scarborough but Rouge Park was actually very close (and I figured that Cho would win easily and the PCs would get a big win in Agincourt, while correctly calling Guildwood).

[DavidB.]

I know very little but I might as well try

PC         40%
NDP       32%
LIB        22%
Green      4%
Other      2%

My view is LIB and PC are under-polled and in the end a lot of NDP leaning LIB voters will still vote LIB.  No idea of seats other than large PC majority. 

Congrats. This was really good.

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

... and so was this!

[adma]

I was quite a bit off on both predictions, but I don't think anyone was expecting such a huge majority for the PCs..

In the end, it wasn't *that* huge or unexpected, especially considering the final (herded?) polls.

But I do find that a lot of polling predictors seemed to be pointing at a 76-to-40 type of result out of a much smaller vote differential than the 7-point margin that actually transpired...

[Oryxslayer]

I was quite a bit off on both predictions, but I don't think anyone was expecting such a huge majority for the PCs..

In the end, it wasn't *that* huge or unexpected, especially considering the final (herded?) polls.

But I do find that a lot of polling predictors seemed to be pointing at a 76-to-40 type of result out of a much smaller vote differential than the 7-point margin that actually transpired...

Well, polls put the NDP much closer to the PCs. However, we talked a lot before about the NDP vote inefficiency, and that was why 70-40 was constantly getting called. Most people expected the NDP to have a high floor (many safe seats) but a hard ceiling to push through (Voter self-packing). If we give 5% of the vote to the NDP on a universal swing (2.5 each from PC/Lib, now 38-38.5-17) the NDP only gains 10 seats to put the chamber at something like 67-50-6-1, despite them winning the popular vote.