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Adam T
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« Reply #100 on: January 04, 2018, 03:29:42 pm »
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At this point I think the NDP could be competitive in approximately 55 of the 122 ridings.

At the moment I would say they are only competitive in around 30 or so seats.  Now if there is a strong surge like Alberta in 2015, Ontario in 1990, or Quebec in the 2011 federal election you could see the NDP becoming competitive in a lot more ridings.  Their main disadvantage is depending on the ballot question, each would benefit another party.

If the goal is to stop the PCs, the Liberals are in much better position in most ridings to do this so it would probably push them downwards and Liberals rebounding.  Although with Brown having a more moderate platform this seems less likely than in 2014, but nonetheless enough attack ads plus general perception of conservatives might make this still plausible.

The other is the election is a change one where voters desire is to oust the Wynne Liberals.  In this case the PCs are in far better position in most parts of the province to achieve this.  Due to ideological differences I doubt many NDP voters will slide over to the PCs are vice versa, but if this happens you will probably see the left flank of the Liberals slide over to the NDP and Blue Liberals slide over to the PCs.  But since the PCs are starting out a lot higher this would mean they win and whether the NDP gets to opposition or not would depend on how badly the Liberals implode.  Unlike Quebec or further West, Ontario has a solid core of voters who always vote Liberal no matter what, even in the 2011 federal election they still got over 25% so it will be tough to push the Liberals under 25% and likewise the ability of the NDP to pick up PC voters is fairly limited as unlike in the past there aren't that many NDP-PC switchers out there.

The NDP have polled, since November, anywhere from 19% to 28%; so 30-55 seats being competitive is probably accurate based on polling.
This really will depend on the OLP vote; if they tank in TO as they did in 2011 and as they were polled last, the OLP will be third party. When the Liberals sank to 25% in 201 they won 11 seats, but the NDP at 25% won 22 seats. Looking at the OLP seats, they need the 416 and 905; last poll had them statistically tied in both, (strong NDP in 416, weaker in 905) with those numbers Liberals could win only 5-6 seats in TO, PC and NDP could win 8-9 each. I think Durham will go PC more heavily then Peel, but even if the OLP losses half their 905 seats, that leaves them with 12 (Peel, Halton, York, Durham regions i'm counting here, i count 24 OLP seats under the new boundaries, similar to the fed count ON 14 and Fed 15 elections saw very similar Liberal wins).

Also look at leaders, Horwath is the most popular polled, more so then the party; Wynne is the opposite personally performs terrible but the OLP % is hanging on, floor is probably 25% like mentioned.
If Horwath can convince Left Liberals that it is time for a change in governent/leader and less policy (The ONDP and Liberals have similar platforms, on purpose since that's the only way Wynne can win) easily the NDP can break 30%. I think in more populist areas, Southwest and North you have/will see more NDP-PC swings.

I agree, there are OLP seats that could swing either NDP or PC depending on who surges, Brantford-Brant, Cambridge specifically; Scarb. North and Southwest, Bramp. North and East. London NC is much more favourable to the NDP. The above will determine that. If the parties are all around 30% give or take 4 points, this is hard to predict and more local factors like candidates and local big issues will come into play. I'm leaning more and more PC minority.

The Halton and I think the Peel region are north of the 905 (or maybe the Northern part of the 905.)  They've historically been conservative (Halton anyway.)  I'd be surprised if the P.Cs didn't win them.  I'd also expect the P.Cs to dominate the Simcoe area if that isn't the Peel region.

It would be an interesting election if the Liberal vote collapses but it's the NDP that surges in ridings like Oxford, the Haliburton area and even Halton.
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« Reply #101 on: January 04, 2018, 04:06:53 pm »
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I don't think Durham will go NDP, it's fairly rural and will likely be a PC pickup.  Halton region is pretty much a Liberal-PC race so any surge in the NDP just delivers those to the PCs who are likely to get over 40% in each of them but will struggle to crack the 50% mark.  As for Oxford, I could say the NDP winning Woodstock and Ingersoll, but the rural parts and Tilsonburg I expect to go heavily PC so it is a safe PC riding.  In all likelihood they will probably crack the 50% mark there.  Brantford-Brant, Sarnia-Lambton, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are the only semi rural Southwestern Ontario ridings I could say the NDP picking up which they don't have and even there PCs still favoured.  Cambridge has the potential but I still think it favours the PCs followed by the Liberals.

In terms of outcome, the PCs are favoured at the moment but still far from certain they will even win the most seats.  As for majority vs. minority or losing outright for PCs, Ontario is a province where you can swing a whole whack of seats with a relatively small swing in votes so while I predicted a PC majority, it would not be a shocker if only a minority or even if they lose (that is if they shoot themselves in the foot which they have a habit of doing).
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« Reply #102 on: January 04, 2018, 08:10:46 pm »
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If I had to make my own guesses at this moment, these are my predictions (all which could change closer to the election):

Toronto (25 seats)
Liberal 12 PC 6 NDP 7

Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (43 seats)
Liberal 8 PC 26 NDP 9

Eastern Ontario (18 seats)
Liberal 5 PC 13 NDP 0

Southwestern Ontario (24 seats)
Liberal 1 PC 16 NDP 7

Northern Ontario (14 seats)
Liberal 1 PC 5 NDP 8

TOTAL

Liberal: 27
PC: 66
NDP: 31

A slim PC majority government with the NDP as the official opposition.
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« Reply #103 on: January 04, 2018, 08:36:41 pm »
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If I had to make my own guesses at this moment, these are my predictions (all which could change closer to the election):

Toronto (25 seats)
Liberal 12 PC 6 NDP 7

Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (43 seats)
Liberal 8 PC 26 NDP 9

Eastern Ontario (18 seats)
Liberal 5 PC 13 NDP 0

Southwestern Ontario (24 seats)
Liberal 1 PC 16 NDP 7

Northern Ontario (14 seats)
Liberal 1 PC 5 NDP 8

TOTAL

Liberal: 27
PC: 66
NDP: 31

A slim PC majority government with the NDP as the official opposition.

Of the 6 PC in Ontario, is Don Valley West one of those are do you still predict a Liberal win.  I think Wynne will hold her seat, but of the three leaders she is probably the most vulnerable to losing her own seat while Howarth is probably the safest.
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« Reply #104 on: January 04, 2018, 08:47:10 pm »
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If I had to make my own guesses at this moment, these are my predictions (all which could change closer to the election):

Toronto (25 seats)
Liberal 12 PC 6 NDP 7

Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (43 seats)
Liberal 8 PC 26 NDP 9

Eastern Ontario (18 seats)
Liberal 5 PC 13 NDP 0

Southwestern Ontario (24 seats)
Liberal 1 PC 16 NDP 7

Northern Ontario (14 seats)
Liberal 1 PC 5 NDP 8

TOTAL

Liberal: 27
PC: 66
NDP: 31

A slim PC majority government with the NDP as the official opposition.

Of the 6 PC in Ontario, is Don Valley West one of those are do you still predict a Liberal win.  I think Wynne will hold her seat, but of the three leaders she is probably the most vulnerable to losing her own seat while Howarth is probably the safest.

I think Wynne will hold her seat but I think Denzil Minnan-Wong will narrowly win Don Valley East.
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« Reply #105 on: January 05, 2018, 05:00:20 pm »
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The fallout over the minimum wage hike is playing right into Wynne's hands right now. This might be the hail Mary they need to save their chances in the election.

They could've gone with a more reasonable modest increase in the minimum wage, which would not have rocked the boat, but they went with a very large increase, which has caused backlash from the business community.

Increasing the minimum wage is a very popular position, albeit very polarising. Having the backlash dominate the headlines will surely help the Liberals in their attempt to galvanize the progressive vote.

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.
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« Reply #106 on: January 05, 2018, 05:29:19 pm »
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The fallout over the minimum wage hike is playing right into Wynne's hands right now. This might be the hail Mary they need to save their chances in the election.

They could've gone with a more reasonable modest increase in the minimum wage, which would not have rocked the boat, but they went with a very large increase, which has caused backlash from the business community.

Increasing the minimum wage is a very popular position, albeit very polarising. Having the backlash dominate the headlines will surely help the Liberals in their attempt to galvanize the progressive vote.

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

Definitely could help them.  The only problem is none of the parties plan to roll it back and the NDP would raise it to $15/hour while the PCs would but over 4 years.  It still might save them, but I think they were hoping to trip the PCs up in having them actually reverse it which hasn't happened.  Will be interesting to see what the next round of polls show.  If multiple polls show them closing the gap then good sign they could comeback.  But as we saw when first announced and they got a bump but fell back, that assumes other news doesn't come in the way.

On a personal level, it should be phased in over a longer period which is what the NDP is doing here in BC.  I have a feeling that if the Liberals were don't so badly in the polls they wouldn't have done this so it does smack of opportunism, but for those who don't follow politics closely they might see it differently.  Also perhaps having a higher minimum wage in the GTA vs. rest of Ontario would make sense as in small town Ontario you can live alright on $15/hour but in Toronto even that is not enough.
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« Reply #107 on: January 06, 2018, 06:19:54 am »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue
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« Reply #108 on: January 06, 2018, 05:07:02 pm »
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Are there 124 provincial ridings in Ontario or 122?  I know the Timiskaming-Cochrane provincial riding in Northern Ontario doesn't exist federally, but, if there are 124 provincial ridings, what are the other two?
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« Reply #109 on: January 06, 2018, 07:27:52 pm »
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Are there 124 provincial ridings in Ontario or 122?  I know the Timiskaming-Cochrane provincial riding in Northern Ontario doesn't exist federally, but, if there are 124 provincial ridings, what are the other two?

See this thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=256686.0

They added two new ridings in the north.
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« Reply #110 on: January 06, 2018, 07:32:59 pm »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 
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« Reply #111 on: January 06, 2018, 08:00:55 pm »
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Are there 124 provincial ridings in Ontario or 122?  I know the Timiskaming-Cochrane provincial riding in Northern Ontario doesn't exist federally, but, if there are 124 provincial ridings, what are the other two?

See this thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=256686.0

They added two new ridings in the north.

Thanks!
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« Reply #112 on: January 07, 2018, 06:56:16 am »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions Tongue
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« Reply #113 on: January 07, 2018, 07:50:25 am »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions Tongue

I believe the usual definition is based on a certain percentage of income going to housing.  I think it's somewhere between 25-33%
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« Reply #114 on: January 07, 2018, 09:20:41 am »
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People living in Toronto making over 100k a year can't even afford a McMasion in the city.
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« Reply #115 on: January 07, 2018, 12:24:49 pm »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions Tongue

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.
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« Reply #116 on: January 07, 2018, 12:28:57 pm »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions Tongue

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

I don't know that I've heard the term mentioned much of late, but this usually comes down to a debate of whether being above the poverty line includes just the basic necessities (which is itself subject to debate) or whether it allows people to 'participate in society.'  (I don't think that is the technical term, but I haven't heard the term mentioned much of late anyway.)
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« Reply #117 on: January 07, 2018, 12:36:18 pm »
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Well, from a social democratic standpoint, we definitely want lower income people to 'participate in society'. Their enfranchisement is key to the movement Smiley
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« Reply #118 on: January 07, 2018, 04:30:55 pm »
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Also poverty line is do you use absolute or relative as I noticed when looking at poverty rates in various countries vs. average incomes seems a strong discrepancy.  If we used our poverty line, about 80-90% of the world's population would live in poverty and in many OECD countries such as Greece and Poland it would be over 50%.  Off course there is the cost of living too and Canada is a very expensive country to live in, especially in the large cities.  In the fact we are a harsh climate makes it more difficult to live on a low income than say in a warmer place.  Relative poverty line is more a way to measure income inequality levels as if it is high that means high levels of inequality while low means more equal.

As for minimum wage, most economists say it should be a certain percentage of the average wage.  Most centrist economists say it should be around 45% to 50% of the average wage so in Ontario that would be about $12 to $13/hour while progressive economists like CCPA say it should be 60% of the average wage which is around $15/hour.  In US, federally at least although some states and cities have set them higher, it is only 30% of the average wage so you have a huge under class, while in France it is 70% of the average wage and you've had persistent double digit unemployment there so probably it should fall somewhere in between those two extremes, but where is a question.  Interestingly enough many countries in Europe including the Nordic Countries have no minimum wage and instead they are decided through sectoral bargaining which has worked quite well there, but not sure that could easily be implemented in Ontario as in the Nordic Countries close to 70% of the workforce is unionized and no union would agree to anything less than a living wage and the threat of unionization forces other firms to pay those wages, but with unionization in the high 20s, probably wouldn't work here.  UK had no minimum wage until 1998 and it worked fine when unionization was over 50% but became very problematic in the 90s thus why the Blair government brought one in and even the current Conservative government is raising it.
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« Reply #119 on: January 07, 2018, 05:12:24 pm »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions Tongue

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

Eye doctor once every 5 years is a no-go if you have glasses. It needs to be more frequent.
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« Reply #120 on: January 07, 2018, 11:02:28 pm »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions Tongue

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

Eye doctor once every 5 years is a no-go if you have glasses. It needs to be more frequent.

See, I knew I would be out of touch somewhere (though, as a recent type 1 diabetic, I'm supposed to start going to the eye doctor regularly, though I was probably 8 the last time I went!) . I don't wear glasses, but a quick google search shows that over 50% of the population has eye issues, so I'm guessing would need to go to the eye doctor annually?

I realize I also forgot to include things like toiletries which are also important and should be included in any calculations.
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« Reply #121 on: January 08, 2018, 01:22:55 am »
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Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income Tongue

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions Tongue

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

Eye doctor once every 5 years is a no-go if you have glasses. It needs to be more frequent.

See, I knew I would be out of touch somewhere (though, as a recent type 1 diabetic, I'm supposed to start going to the eye doctor regularly, though I was probably 8 the last time I went!) . I don't wear glasses, but a quick google search shows that over 50% of the population has eye issues, so I'm guessing would need to go to the eye doctor annually?

I realize I also forgot to include things like toiletries which are also important and should be included in any calculations.

I would think that clothing costs would need to be higher than one article of clothing per month, especially in Canada (and especially if businesses begin forcing their minimum wage employees en masse to purchase their own uniforms). Speaking as a Calgarian (and I'm sure this applies throughout much of the country), I need to have enough clothes throughout the year to allow me to function in a variety of settings while the weather can be anywhere from positive 35 to negative 35 degrees at the margins, depending on the season. One's ability to advance professionally and/or within society can also partially depend on one's ability to dress well given the standards of appropriateness for the setting in question. Now, I'm not saying that those on living wage should have their wardrobes bursting with new clothes, but the wage should allow for the person to maintain an adequate supply of clothing for all seasons, including footwear and outerwear, ideally with a basic amount of higher-end/professional clothing for special occasions, job interviews, etc. Of course, determining this amount would be incredibly tricky.
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« Reply #122 on: January 08, 2018, 09:57:08 am »
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Well, with "fast fashion" being a huge problem, maybe the cost should cover one piece of quality (made in Canada?) clothing, which would be the equivalent of a few articles of made in China crap.
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« Reply #123 on: January 08, 2018, 11:43:31 am »
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Harman, I generally agree with your assessment (with some quibbles). Just wanted to double-check you were reasonable...
I once worked with an NDP supporter who thought my lifestyle was too poor to constitute a 'living wage' despite my household income being around the national median at the time Tongue

Well, with "fast fashion" being a huge problem, maybe the cost should cover one piece of quality (made in Canada?) clothing, which would be the equivalent of a few articles of made in China crap.

I think the above discussion is a good example of why these calculations (and policies in general) should be done as simply as possible. Different people will have different needs, preferences etc. (E.g. Urban vs suburban vs rural, white vs blue collar etc) Deciding on the appropriate amount and quality of clothing smacks of nanny statism.

It'd be far better in my opinion if the government came up with figures for the major categories slapped on a decent fudge factor for the remaining things and left it up to the people to figure out how to spend it.
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« Reply #124 on: January 11, 2018, 05:03:08 pm »
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Gilles Bisson has stated he will be running in the new Timmins ridings for the ONDP.
Guy Bourgouin, who appears to be a Francophone from Kapuskasing, will be seeking the ONDP nomination Mushkegowuk-James Bay.  No other candidates yet, but I really don't think in the case of the North-East anyway, that there will be an Indigenous candidate winning, as was the hope with the creating of the new ridings.
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