Ontario 2018 election

[RogueBeaver]

Union-commissioned 416 poll shows Grits holding Toronto Centre, EgLaw, St. Paul's and tied with the Dippers in University-Rosedale. In related news, Kinsella spotted Tim Murphy golfing in California. SAD!

[Tintrlvr]

Union-commissioned 416 poll shows Grits holding only Toronto Centre and St. Paul's. In related news, Kinsella spotted Tim Murphy golfing in California. SAD!

The poll isn't as good for the NDP as claimed. The NDP really need to be winning places like Humber River-Black Creek, Toronto Centre, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre and Scarborough-Rouge Park if they're going to be competing for government.

(Also, the poll has the Liberals also holding Eglinton-Lawrence, albeit narrowly, and tied with the NDP in University-Rosedale.)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Union-commissioned 416 poll shows Grits holding only Toronto Centre and St. Paul's. In related news, Kinsella spotted Tim Murphy golfing in California. SAD!

The poll isn't as good for the NDP as claimed. The NDP really need to be winning places like Humber River-Black Creek, Toronto Centre, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre and Scarborough-Rouge Park if they're going to be competing for government.

(Also, the poll has the Liberals also holding Eglinton-Lawrence, albeit narrowly, and tied with the NDP in University-Rosedale.)

PC are ahead 43-21-21(PC/Lib/NDP) in Etobicoke North and 43-31-19 (PC/Lib/NDP) in Don Valley West.

[adma]

PC are ahead 43-21-21(PC/Lib/NDP) in Etobicoke North

and 16% Green, which seems suspect.

[Njall]

PC are ahead 43-21-21(PC/Lib/NDP) in Etobicoke North

and 16% Green, which seems suspect.

Chalk that up to small sample sizes. The poll has an overall sample of 1871, which works out to a rough average of 75 respondents per riding.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into wide discrepancies between fairly similar ridings (i.e. York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek).

[Krago]

Mitzi Hunter is at 0% support in Scarborough-Guildwood.  Not lookin' good for her.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Mitzi Hunter is at 0% support in Scarborough-Guildwood.  Not lookin' good for her.

The sample was only 38 voters for that riding so I wouldn’t read too much into that poll result.

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt the NDP would be ahead in Spadina-Fort York and only tied in Davenport.

[DL]

I wouldn’t put much stock in the individual riding numbers but across Toronto this poll has the PCs at 35%, the NDP at 32% and the Liberals at 27%, tonput things in perspective in 2014 the Liberals took 49% in Toronto and the PCs and NDP took 23% each

[Krago]

EKOS is out.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/997688156035141632

PC - 39.1%
NDP - 29.8%
Lib - 23.3%
Green - 5.4%
Oth - 2.4%


Lots of other tables on Twitter at @VoiceOfFranky, but so far no regional breakdown or Best Premier numbers.

[Krago]

Mainstreet is out.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/gap-between-ndp-and-pcs-narrows-while-liberals-hold-steady/

PC - 41.9%
NDP - 29.3%
Lib - 22.3%
Green - 5.0%
Oth - 1.4%

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS is out.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/997688156035141632

PC - 39.1%
NDP - 29.8%
Lib - 23.3%
Green - 5.4%
Oth - 2.4%


Lots of other tables on Twitter at @VoiceOfFranky, but so far no regional breakdown or Best Premier numbers.

We did have regional breaks, but I guess they weren't published. The NDP currently leads in the Southwest, North and Hamilton/Niagara. I think we still have the Liberals leading in Toronto, but just barely.  The Tories lead everywhere else.

[DC Al Fine]

If the NDP is leading "Southwest" would they pick up any non London/KWC/Brant seats?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are our regional numbers (warning: margin of error is around 10 for each subsample):

North: 38-31-26
SW: 42-37-10
Georgian Bay: 47-23-23
Grand River: 32-31-28
Hamilton/Niagara: 37-31-20
Halton/Peel: 47-28-18
York/Durham: 44-36-16
Central Toronto: 34-32-32
Suburban Toronto: 36-28-24
E&C Ontario: 44-24-21
Ottawa: 45-29-21

NDP leading in Grand River. Tories actually ahead in Toronto, 34-32-28. Liberals behind the Greens in SW (caveat: margin of error)

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP is leading "Southwest" would they pick up any non London/KWC/Brant seats?

My/our definition of SW does not include KWC or Brant (they're in Grand River). Possible NDP targets are Chatham-Kent-Essex and Sarnia-Lambton.

[King of Kensington]

It's nice to some other regions beyond Eastern, Southwestern, Northern etc.

[DL]

The latest EKOs poll had a sample size of 1,100 or so...wouldn’t some of these regions have hefty very small subsamples?

[Hatman 🍁]

The latest EKOs poll had a sample size of 1,100 or so...wouldn’t some of these regions have hefty very small subsamples?

yes, hence the caveat about the margin of error.

Most of the regional numbers are consistent with our previous poll which had over 2K+ respondents though. The only weird results are the NDP doing so well in York/Durham and the Liberal & Green numbers in the Southwest.

[2952-0-0]

But if every penny the candidates paid ($20,000) went directly to the students ($200 x 100), where is the profit?  It would seem like a very dicey, quasi-illegal thing to do without expecting some reward.

Who would organize such a campaign just to gain access to 29 potential Ontario MPPs? (*cough* Putin *cough*)  And how were these 29 people recruited?  Kijiji?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-battle-for-the-ballot-inside-the-bitter-nominations-that-divided-the/

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[King of Kensington]

A piece on the growing economic divide between the GTA and "rust belt."  While the NDP is the only party that can indeed stop Ford, it does lead one to conclude that claims that ridings like Brantford, Sarnia and Chatham will be "easy pickups" sounds too optimistic:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-ontario-divided-anger-economics-and-the-fault-lines-that-could/

How likely is the "but Hudak went too far" constituency likely to go back to the more populist Ford than stick with the NDP (or switch from Liberal '14 to NDP '18)?

[Krago]

But if every penny the candidates paid ($20,000) went directly to the students ($200 x 100), where is the profit?  It would seem like a very dicey, quasi-illegal thing to do without expecting some reward.

Who would organize such a campaign just to gain access to 29 potential Ontario MPPs? (*cough* Putin *cough*)  And how were these 29 people recruited?  Kijiji?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-battle-for-the-ballot-inside-the-bitter-nominations-that-divided-the/

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Great article. Thanks for the link.

So there was no hidden conspiracy. All the cheating was obvious but nobody seemed give (much of) a ‘fig’.  The sad thing is that it probably will have a minimal impact on the actual results, so there will be no incentive to fix it for the next time.

[DL]

Holy macaroni! New Abacus poll says it’s now a virtual dead heat PCs 35%, NDP 34%, Liberals 24%

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

[DC Al Fine]

Holy macaroni! New Abacus poll says it’s now a virtual dead heat PCs 35%, NDP 34%, Liberals 24%

The last Abacus poll was pre-NDP surge and also had the Tories low and NDP high. The results are unusual but the movement isn't.

Strange that the NDP has a larger lead among 'centrist' voters than 'left wing' voters.

Wynne has been pretty loudly left in her rhetoric lately. It kind of makes sense I guess... Or perhaps that's why the NDP result is so high.