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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 95740 times)
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« Reply #100 on: April 25, 2018, 08:25:16 am »

(to be honest I'm more intrigued by the high Grit numbers than the NDP strongholds)

Depending on where it is in the province, it is either visible minority loyalty (which could swing en masse to the PCs this year), suburban progressives ("fiscally conservative, socially liberal" - this group will also swing to the PCs due to the reckless spending of the government), university towns and downtown "elites".  The latter two groups are probably the least likely to swing in this election, though the 'downtown elites' could go NDP if they pull into second place.
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« Reply #101 on: April 30, 2018, 11:49:38 am »

Mainstreet says their fieldwork was done April 16-18...why on earth would a polling company wait almost two weeks to release numbers in the midst of a super time sensitive de facto election campaign? I could understand staggering release dates on place like MB or SK where we are years from the next election but in Ontario in the current highly charged environment a poll goes stale within days of data being collected. 

Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Quito Maggi is a Liberal?
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« Reply #102 on: May 01, 2018, 09:11:39 pm »

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Giorgio Mammoliti.

you don't think he voted for himself in 1990?
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« Reply #103 on: May 02, 2018, 10:59:41 am »

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

Yes.

Ahh, sorry. One would presume there would be a few 'Ford nation' voters who voted NDP in 1995.
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« Reply #104 on: May 02, 2018, 05:47:30 pm »

For Parry Sound, the Greens got the protest vote in 1990. Not sure what happened in Cochrane though. Probably some mine got saved?

ETA: One more reason for the Soo, and Cochrane South is the collapse of the COR vote.  They didn't have a candidate in Cochrane North though.
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« Reply #105 on: May 04, 2018, 08:30:32 am »

Yeah, I thought that theory had been debunked.

Personally, I've gotten much more left wing with age. Cool
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« Reply #106 on: May 07, 2018, 07:42:11 am »

While I don't think those poll numbers are quite accurate, I do feel the NDP is in second place right now.
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« Reply #107 on: May 07, 2018, 12:43:27 pm »

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.
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« Reply #108 on: May 07, 2018, 01:27:54 pm »

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

That makes sense.  When is Ekos coming out next?


We've been doing some internal polling. I'm not sure if we're going to release the data, though.
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« Reply #109 on: May 07, 2018, 07:59:20 pm »

Also, if a pollster is weighting by census data, than they are massively oversampling young people, considering they are less likely to vote. The question is, how many of them will show up.

Who is currently in second place depends entirely on how you weigh millennials.
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« Reply #110 on: May 08, 2018, 08:49:37 am »

Off topic a bit, but the NDP have finally got around to nominating a candidate in Kiiwetinoong a riding they should be a slam dunk in. I wonder what has taken so long? The riding may not have a lot of people, but is incredibly difficult to canvass (few roads, you have to fly from community to community), so I wish they had nominated someone a month ago to get a head start. The Liberals and Tories have had candidates for a while.
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« Reply #111 on: May 09, 2018, 10:51:04 am »

Just did the political compass, and here is my result: https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/results/?hash=fa8df176b09b1bd7dfbaa6322c34a868d85e13f215258803117CNgT8

I guess I'm now a moderate! :S
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« Reply #112 on: May 09, 2018, 11:45:19 am »

Looks like you should be supporting the Greens!
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« Reply #113 on: May 09, 2018, 05:52:12 pm »

Why is the Green Party on the Economic left there?  They are much further right than either Liberals or NDP on that front, with wanting to privatize weed sales and all

Not wanting a government monopoly on weed does not make a party right wing. In fact, getting out of the business of selling weed frees up a lot of money for the government to spend on social programs.
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« Reply #114 on: May 10, 2018, 08:58:57 am »

Why is the Green Party on the Economic left there?  They are much further right than either Liberals or NDP on that front, with wanting to privatize weed sales and all

Not wanting a government monopoly on weed does not make a party right wing. In fact, getting out of the business of selling weed frees up a lot of money for the government to spend on social programs.

Are you claiming the government can't make a profit with having a monopoly selling weed? 

I realize you're likely arguing that the government would make more money taxing it than being in the retail business itself, but, at least in British Columbia, the government seems to have done a good job with liquor stores (beer and wine can now be sold privately, separate from bars and restaurants of course.)

I only know so much about this because I don't drink alcohol, but the government run stores seem to get a fair deal of praise.

The government can make a profit selling weed, but I think if they weren't in the business, they'd make more money off of the taxes, and they wouldn't have to spend money running the Cannabis Control Board (or whatever they're going to call it).

Perhaps this is 'unsocialist' of me (I do have a bit of a libertarian streak), but I don't think the government should be running unessential businesses. Especially when it comes to vices, I think it's very puritanical.
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« Reply #115 on: May 10, 2018, 09:37:31 am »

Well, ideally the private marijuana shops would be unionized as well. If you're going to use that as an argument, why not just mandate that if you want to sell cannabis, you have to have a unionized work force?
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« Reply #116 on: May 10, 2018, 01:19:22 pm »

Why would they pick someone who is not even running as a candidate?
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« Reply #117 on: May 12, 2018, 08:56:17 am »

If all the undecideds go to the NDP, then that would give them the lead! Smiley
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« Reply #118 on: May 12, 2018, 02:41:08 pm »

If all the undecideds go to the NDP, then that would give them the lead! Smiley

And to think Jagmeet Singh could have stayed in provincial politics and become Ontario Attorney General (and maybe Deputy Premier.)

Well, if the NDP does win, and does a good job in office, it would do a good job to boost the federal party's numbers, and he might just become prime minister! Wink
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« Reply #119 on: May 12, 2018, 09:44:04 pm »

Frank has tweeted our Ontario results that I've been hinting at:



Now that it has been embargoed, I can comment on it. I can confirm that the NDP surge is real, and they overtook the Liberals on Monday in terms of raw numbers (pre-weighted), and were ahead of the Liberals the week prior with weighted numbers. Our weights are aligned with the census, so they have weighted up the under 35 category much higher than what you'd actually see on Election Day. I've also used an age weight that mirrors the federal election turnout, which put the NDP's lead over the Liberals at about 0.2% I think, over the same time period.

I don't know if we'll post regional numbers, but I can confirm the NDP is in first place in Northern Ontario and in Hamilton/Niagara. They are statistically tied with the Liberals in Downtown Toronto and are doing surprisingly well in the Grand River Valley (Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford).  I can't remember if they're winning there or not (remember, I've been working with two sets of weighted numbers). Oh, and we only have maybe ~20 cases in Guelph, but out of those cases, it does not look good for the Greens to pick it up. Though a strong campaign can change that.

I designed the regions, so I can tell you which ridings are where if you want, Krago.
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« Reply #120 on: May 12, 2018, 10:08:36 pm »

So the numbers in the poll that was Tweeted are the unweighted numbers?

No, those are weighted. They're over the course of over a week, so the Liberals were in second place at the beginning of the polling period, while the NDP was in second at the end of the polling period. I think the unweighted numbers for the entire period show the Liberals in second (but not in the last two days of polling).
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« Reply #121 on: May 12, 2018, 10:50:54 pm »

When you say the NDP and Liberals are tied in "downtown Toronto" is that Toronto 416 or just the 8 ridings that are from the old old City of Toronto?

Should've said "Central Toronto", and I think it's the 11 centrally located ridings in the city.
Frank has tweeted our Ontario results that I've been hinting at:



Now that it has been embargoed, I can comment on it. I can confirm that the NDP surge is real, and they overtook the Liberals on Monday in terms of raw numbers (pre-weighted), and were ahead of the Liberals the week prior with weighted numbers. Our weights are aligned with the census, so they have weighted up the under 35 category much higher than what you'd actually see on Election Day. I've also used an age weight that mirrors the federal election turnout, which put the NDP's lead over the Liberals at about 0.2% I think, over the same time period.

I don't know if we'll post regional numbers, but I can confirm the NDP is in first place in Northern Ontario and in Hamilton/Niagara. They are statistically tied with the Liberals in Downtown Toronto and are doing surprisingly well in the Grand River Valley (Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford).  I can't remember if they're winning there or not (remember, I've been working with two sets of weighted numbers). Oh, and we only have maybe ~20 cases in Guelph, but out of those cases, it does not look good for the Greens to pick it up. Though a strong campaign can change that.

I designed the regions, so I can tell you which ridings are where if you want, Krago.


How about Southwestern Ontario? Are they competitive there or PC's still well ahead?

In the 416 it is possible for the Liberals to come in first in votes and third in seats like they did in 2011 federally as their support is evenly spread out, while NDP mostly in old city and PC's in suburbs.

The NDP is competitive in the SW, but down from 2014, so are at a risk of losing London West (though the PC candidate is a crazy, so that might help them).
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« Reply #122 on: May 12, 2018, 10:53:05 pm »

In the 416 it is possible for the Liberals to come in first in votes and third in seats like they did in 2011 federally as their support is evenly spread out, while NDP mostly in old city and PC's in suburbs.

Also how much does Ford mess up the traditional map?  He likely underperforms in ridings like DVW and Eglinton-Lawrence, and overperforms in Scarborough, York-Weston and of course north Etobicoke.

I wish we had more cases in York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek to know what was going on there, but I can tell you the PCs are ahead in Scarborough. Small sample size, though (~80 cases off the top of my head).
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« Reply #123 on: May 12, 2018, 11:00:04 pm »

In my experience low income, heavily ethnic ridings are VERY difficult to poll using IVR. Response rates tend to be abysmal

Yes, hence why I don't know what's going on in those ridings, and not sure what is going on in Brampton either, which is another area I am very interested in, as I have a feeling the NDP could do potentially quite well there.
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« Reply #124 on: May 14, 2018, 08:19:41 am »

Seeing as Ford and Horwath are bad fits with your standard "upper-middle class cosmopolitan but not necessarily lefty" demographic, could the Greens win Guelph in the event of a Gritpocylpse?

As I mentioned, right now the Greens are in a distant fourth place in Guelph, but I know they're going to put all their eggs into that basket, so they will likely start getting some momentum. Right now I fear the vote split is going to allow the Tories win the seat though.
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