Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

That is, the NDP will run up the margins where they already hold seats, but I doubt they'll get any rural Alberta style results, which in turn will help them elsewhere.

[DC Al Fine]

It's also a fact that the NDP has never been successful in penetrating small town Ontario, except in the North. Andrea Horvath is a formidable campaigner but excuse me for being somewhat sceptical that the NDP will do it now.  These smaller communities have often never voted by more than 10-15% for the NDP, and I am not convinced that it will suddenly change now.

Might want to take a quick glance over the 1990 election before using words like 'never'. Different circumstances of course, but not exactly 'never'.

Your point is well taken - never is too strong a word . NDP did make rural gains in that election, especially in the SW, but that was as a result of a "perfect storm" with 3-way splits across several rural ridings, allowing NDP MPPs to be elected in places like Prince Edward Lennox with just 33% of the vote or in Huron with 34%. With the OLP going down fast, those conditions will probably not be repeated. Mind you, even in 1990, PCs managed to hold on to a lot of of the central and eastern rural seats.

Well there's never and never. 1990 had the Confederation of Regions and Family Coalition parties scoring double digits in some rural seats, allowing the NDP to come up the middle. I suppose it's technically possible for that to happen or for Reform 2.0 to show up but I really doubt the NDP will ever win a material number of rural seats when their only competition is the Liberals and Tories...

*Looks across the river where the NDP went from 0 to a majority of rural Quebec seats in one election*

[DC Al Fine]

Grits and Star are gonna bomb Doug tomorrow with a story about purchasing a nomination for a woman who Frank strongly hints is his mistress.

Hmm. I'm always skeptical of nomination scandals moving votes, but the mistress thing could be big.

[DC Al Fine]

Grits and Star are gonna bomb Doug tomorrow with a story about purchasing a nomination for a woman who Frank strongly hints is his mistress.

Hmm. I'm always skeptical of nomination scandals moving votes, but the mistress thing could be big.

This might be like the firing 100,000 last time if a big enough bombshell.  Wondering is there anyway to get rid of Ford as leader this late in the game.  I know they cannot have a leadership convention, but they could appoint a interim leader to lead them.  Yes quite risky but if a big enough might be the only option left.  Interesting the Liberals not NDP are releasing this as every damaging thing on Ford has just helped them not the Liberals.

To paraphrase RogueBeaver, changing leaders midstream is almost always a terrible idea.

[DC Al Fine]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume.  

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

1. It's Ontario - there aren't many ridings that any party has a lock on. Coalitions constantly change. Horwath and the NDP currently have very broad appeal. Polling suggests that they have significant appeal with swing/centrist voters. They even appear to have appeal with conservatives. Polling also suggests that the OLP is winning roughly 0 of voters in either category. That's a recipe for the NDP sweeping areas in unexpected ways - contrary to what you'd expect, left-liberals and "progressives" are not driving the movement towards the NDP.
2. Citing Trump in any capacity when making the arguments you are making is foolish, even if it's in passing - even in the United States, it's possible for supposed "structural advantages" to evaporate and we're talking about Ontario, a province where in three consecutive elections, three different parties landslided the competition in late 80s to mid 90s. When coalitions change, they tend to do so in dramatic ways.

To be more blunt, you're using historical evidence to make claims about a reality where the OLP is about as popular as AIDs and the NDP is polling near 40%. This is bizarre. You cannot talk about "structural advantages" when we don't see a structure and a party has surged by 15 percentage points! That makes no sense!

In regards to #1. The NDP momentum, from 10 days ago now, but goes more to the point I want to make, The NDP has basically already pulled over all the "Core Left" 47% (+17% since 2014) and now lead the "Left-Liberal" group 38% (+18% since 2014). This is the voting group that lead to the NDP losing seats in Toronto, and held them back from winning places like Ottawa Centre.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/ontario-politics-in-depth-values-and-attitudes/

But to your point, the NDP is seeing huge growth among "Thrifty Moderates" 31% (+10% since 2014) But so have the PCs 39% (+18 since 2014) This group is where the NDP needs to win over more of if they want to be government.
The PCs have eaten out the "Business Liberal" vote, 37% tied with the OLP, but +16 since 2014 while the OLP has seen -17%.

There is an interesting section called "Canadian Dreamers"

"Meanwhile, some of the economically alienated voters who initially were rallying to the Doug Ford PCs appear to be shifting to the NDP.
Voters who reject the idea you can be anything you want in Ontario if you work for it have shifted from supporting the PCs in April to the NDP in early May.  However, the NDP has also gained in two of the three clusters that are struggling to some degree but believe in the Canadian dream.  There is now a three-way tie among Canadian Dream Hopeful voters while the NDP and Liberals are closing the gap with the PCs among the Canadian Dream Heavy Strugglers."

The NDP in rural areas, in particular SWO, I think their chances are rather good. It's been stated that this is not the same as 90's sweep. But looking at the 90's you had the FCP, which at most took 12% in one riding, the Confederation wasn't really an impact but FCP was running in most seats. Today you have the Greens who effectively take that 5-12% in the SW as well, in some ridings much higher like Guelph and Dufferin-Caledon. Some of the riding results from 90, look similar to what we have today but the PCs in third. Today we have the Liberal vote imploding, and I don't see the bulk of this vote going PC, not at this point. The OLP-PC voter already jumped ship back in 2011, when the OLP lost most of the SW to the PCs (except Essex which went NDP) If the PC vote starts to slip even more, I'd expect the SW to look like it did in 2003, but NDP rather then Liberal.

Tommy, I mostly agree with you but I don't think you're discussion of 1990 vote splits is right. FCP did top out at 12%, but they also put up lots of high single digit results and these numbers get even higher when you throw COR into the mix. That's a big deal when we're talking sub 5% wins like a lot of the rural NDP wins. Even if you make generous allowances for some of those voters going NDP or staying home if FCP and COR weren't on the ballot, there's 8 or 9 mostly rural seats that the NDP won off the backs of vote splits

[DC Al Fine]

Grits and Star are gonna bomb Doug tomorrow with a story about purchasing a nomination for a woman who Frank strongly hints is his mistress.

Hmm. I'm always skeptical of nomination scandals moving votes, but the mistress thing could be big.

This might be like the firing 100,000 last time if a big enough bombshell.  Wondering is there anyway to get rid of Ford as leader this late in the game.  I know they cannot have a leadership convention, but they could appoint a interim leader to lead them.  Yes quite risky but if a big enough might be the only option left.  Interesting the Liberals not NDP are releasing this as every damaging thing on Ford has just helped them not the Liberals.

To paraphrase RogueBeaver, changing leaders midstream is almost always a terrible idea.

Yes, but if bad enough keeping Ford might be even worse.

Sure but what's "bad enough"? Coup d'etat's are chaotic and make the party look unprofessional. Politician's get into scandals all the time. Ford having a mistress and falling behind in the polls is plenty of reason to toss him after the election but it's not nearly enough mid campaign.

Maybe he could be ousted if he sexually assaulted someone or punched a baby or something, but normal crappy leader stuff doesn't merit it.

[DC Al Fine]

I was talking province wide and including seats where only one fringe party ran, so you can throw in Durham East, Peterborough, and Huron. More to the point, those numbers were relatively small, but they were enough in those seats to swing it. E.g. FCP got 10% in Huron and the NDP won by 3%. I don't think it's a stretch to say 1/3 of those FCPers would have voted Tory.

[DC Al Fine]

I was talking province wide and including seats where only one fringe party ran, so you can throw in Durham East, Peterborough, and Huron. More to the point, those numbers were relatively small, but they were enough in those seats to swing it. E.g. FCP got 10% in Huron and the NDP won by 3%. I don't think it's a stretch to say 1/3 of those FCPers would have voted Tory.

AH, I was specifically talking about the SW, since the NDP is arguably leading with a large margin and has the best shots ts seats from the PCs. I'm also not disagreeing in the split in 90, helping to elect NDP.
based on Ipsos, the NDP has seen a 13% swing, the PCs only 1% swing; Arguably that moves about 5-7 seats to the NDP, I can't see a swing like the not having the NDP pick up the low fruit from 2014 from the PCs and Liberals.

Yeah that's fair I think.

[DC Al Fine]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

Could you please risk getting fired and give us #'s?

[DC Al Fine]

Who would give Doug a high-profile character endorsement...?

Anyone know Hurricane Hazel’s thoughts on this election?

You'd be surprised...and yes, HH is going to be one of them!

Makes sense. I used to live in Mississauga as a kid. My dad has a story about Hazel chewing out someone on a call in show for wanting a crosswalk a couple hundred feed from another crosswalk. Sounded very Fordish.

[DC Al Fine]

It would be kinda hilarious to see the NDP sweep SW Ontario and the PCs sweep Scarborough.

10/10 would look at that map again.

[DC Al Fine]

Maclean’s-Pollara poll: (online poll)

38% NDP (+8)
37% PC (-3)
18% Lib (-5)
  5% Green (-1)
  2% Others (+1)

Poll conducted between 21 and 22 May. Polled 870 voters in Ontario. MoE of 3.3%.

Sub 20% for the Libs? That's approaching wipeout territory.

[DC Al Fine]

It grinds my gears that every single Canadian poll uses decimals when it is impossible to get accuracy down to the tenth of a percent in a poll. Can anyone explain why Canadian polling companies do this?

Because it gives the illusion of precision.

[DC Al Fine]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

[DC Al Fine]

Question for the Ontarians: why does the NDP seem to do better in rural southwestern Ontario than rural eastern Ontario?

I added my two cents to this pages ago, but I will add my thoughts.
SWO, rural is based on different agriculture, its been tobacco, fruits like tomatoes, wine, breeding, etc. More cash crop.
Also in the SW, b/c of the smaller town industries being based around manufacturing this has meant a much stronger union presence in the area. Historically its been mostly British and Loyalist.

Eastern Ontario, from what I remember was much more Dairy farming.
The character of the towns was not based on manufacturing the same way, so there has never a huge union presence.
I also think the linguistic and history of Eastern ontario having a larger French population, which was more historically heavily catholic.

I'm sure there is more...

Interesting. I was aware of the Francophone issue, but that wouldn't have explained the Anglo areas. Thanks for the info.

[DC Al Fine]

DL. I agree that these probably won't have any lasting impact, but re the Ottawa Centre guy; the point is less about that local race and more about the image of the party. I doubt it would have made much difference where Lake of Fire guy had run for example.

[DC Al Fine]

DL. I agree that these probably won't have any lasting impact, but re the Ottawa Centre guy; the point is less about that local race and more about the image of the party. I doubt it would have made much difference where Lake of Fire guy had run for example.

That's a silly comparison. The issue of whether to have a single secular school board in Ontario has been debated in Ontario for a century and Harden's view is very much within the mainstream. There have been tons of NDP (and other party's) politicians who have proposed merging the Catholic and public school systems - in fact long time MPP Michael Prue ran for leader against Horwath in 2009 partly on a platform of wanting the NDP to support a single school system. This issue also comes up at every NDP convention...and I might add both of the major teacher's unions in Ontario - ETFO and OSSTF officially support de-funding Catholic schools. This is nothing new.

I'm not suggesting that the NDP should push for a Quebec or Newfoundland style single secular school system - just saying it is a very mainstream point of view that commands a lot of support among the general public

My point wasn't about Ottawa Centre guy. I'm just saying that the effect of candidate issues isnt as local as you indicated.

[DC Al Fine]

If anyone is interested I calculated the Toronto regional results from 2011 Federally on the current map and got:

Liberal 34.84%
Conservative 31.09%
 NDP 30.38%
Green 3.18%
Other 0.51%

With the Liberals possibly falling in third in Toronto it’s going to be tough for them to hold on to several of their current seats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--o2KlbsZxgMCjJV5bxZmY4CvvaYUTJbBnkyrjy5FjE

Agreed. They need to hope that there is some significant variation in the swing within Toronto. If their Etobicoke/Scarborough vote craters and they only suffer a minor decrease in Don Valley/Old Toronto, they might salvage a resepectable caucus. If they decline evenly, they'll be in Kim Campbell territory.

[DC Al Fine]

Game changer!

https://twitter.com/OntarioPCParty/status/1000439982430085121

This will bring back the socons pissed about Allen who also drink vote. Its like eight people but I'm one of them. Woo cheap beer!!!

[DC Al Fine]

Game changer!

https://twitter.com/OntarioPCParty/status/1000439982430085121

This will bring back the socons pissed about Allen who also drink vote. Its like eight people but I'm one of them. Woo cheap beer!!!

Looking at this seriously (yes, I know it's hard to ), there are two possible conclusions:

1. PC campaign feels that they have to bolster their core support (Buck beer is Ford Nation campaign promise), OR

2. Doug Ford came up with this brainwave on his own and didn't consult anyone.

My money (at least one beercan's worth) is on #2.

Why not both?

Seriously though, I've long thought liberalizing liquor laws would be an excellent wedge issue for conservative parties. Benefits include:

1) It gets the free marketeers excited. This seems crucial where Ford is underperforming with "business liberal" per Innovative Research.

2) It appeals to a lot of working class voters who would otherwise be inaccessible to the right. (Ford Nation has already captured some of this effect)

3) It makes the Liberals and NDP look like hectoring nannies, and in the pocket of the unions respectively.

The third point is especially important given the Tories stalling and the NDP's surge. Honestly I'm surprised it wasn't tried a decade ago. Perhaps there is a silent majority that likes restrictive liquor laws.

[DC Al Fine]

So Mainstreet is supposed to be releasing some riding poll results this afternoon...

NDP lead in Algoma–Manitoulin, Scarborough Southwest, and Ottawa West–Nepean

PC lead in Sarnia–Lambton, and Kitchener–Conestoga

OLP lead in Toronto-St. Pauls

These make absolutely no sense. The NDP leading in Ottawa West-Nepean but losing in Sarnia-Lambton would be bizarre to say the least.

Well they are riding polls, so take it with a heap of salt. That said if the vote is breaking on populist/non-populist lines Ottawa is prime non-populist territory. Yes I know I'm equivocating.

[DC Al Fine]

I think it is pretty clear the NDP are winning Ottawa Centre now. I don't think Ottawa South is a higher up target than Ottawa West-Nepean necessarily. They are pretty similar ridings, though Ottawa South I think is wealthier and more diverse, making it more Liberal friendly. The NDP has no history in either riding, though as I said, Ottawa West did have an NDP MPP briefly.

Yes, but floor crossing doesn't count. You might as well cite Bruce Hyer for why the Greens would win Thunder Bay in a surge.

[DC Al Fine]

If the NDP moves up any more in Toronto, then Kathleen Wynne might end up being the last Liberal MPP at all (though I do suspect at least one of the Thunder Bay MPPs will hang on).

What's with the Liberals and Thunder Bay? It sounds like a bad fit but they always seem to win and hold on longer than you'd expect.

[DC Al Fine]

How is everyone planning to vote? (Or "vote" if not from Ontario.)

Party for People with Special Needs sounds great but sadly they only have five candidates. If we limit it to parties with full or near full slates, I think I'd have to vote *gulps* Libertarian.

[DC Al Fine]

Back in 2007, I convinced my Mom to vote yes on the Ontario MMP referendum by telling her that it would be the final nail in Mike Harris' coffin.

My mother likes to hear the words 'Mike Harris' and 'coffin' in the same sentence.

Exactly.  And countries like the Nordic Countries, Germany, and Netherlands have had plenty of centre-right governments, but none as ideological as the Harris government.  For starters I think if we went to PR, the PCs would split in two and the more moderate faction would be moderate enough they could work with the OLP and NDP only like the present ones.  In addition saddled of the baggage of the more right wing elements, they could probably pull away the extra 10% who were open to voting for them but haven't.  Likewise they might sometimes form a coalition with the more right wing one, but would probably be like Norway and Denmark right now, just a supply and confidence not a formal one meaning they would simply agree not to defeat them, but not have much say either.

I think that very much depends on which way parties split. Fiscal conservative/social liberal types are very much overrepresented on internet message boards and the editorial pages of major newspapers, so if the Tories break along that line you could very well see the Canadian right resembling Italy's more than Germany's.

I can see a moderate but still generally conservative Tory party doing pretty well under PR though.

The moment this country/province chooses a new electoral system, likely something more akin to MMP (since people like the idea of local candidates) the Conservatives/PCs will split. Just as mentioned above, the more right-wing faction and the more centre-right will form separate parties, but likely work together.

Any way, yes electoral reform is in the NDP platform this year. Odd how it hasn't been mentioned, but this election hasn't been one where this has come up yet, unfortunately.

I agree. I wonder how the Liberals and NDP would go under MMP. The Liberals seem a too diverse to stick together at least federally. Rural Newfoundland, Brampon and Anglo Montreal seems like a pretty eclectic mix of voters. I imagine the NDP would lose a hard left branch but would remain the most intact of the major parties.