Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

Is Niagara Falls that much in decline? When we went last year, it was not exactly a ghost town. It's true, the giant closed down, dilapidated Planet Hollywood loomed over the tourist area, and the Skylon Tower kinda looked old and sad, but it has some nice areas too.

What was kind of surprising was how run down St. Catharines is. The lakefront is rather nice, but the downtown was very depressing.

[King of Kensington]

I think it's fair to characterize the Niagara region as "industrial/post-industrial" even though it has a touristy aspect and an agricultural aspect as well.   As adma pointed out, it's the "industrial" character that has made the Niagara region an area with a solid NDP base in the first place.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah I was thinking of the NY Niagara. And I guess I just have connotations associated with the name "Barry" as a town.

The Niagara region in general is industrial/post-industrial. But,yes, Barrie is not much like Barry...

Then again, is anywhere truly like Barry when it comes down to it?

[adma]

Is Niagara Falls that much in decline? When we went last year, it was not exactly a ghost town. It's true, the giant closed down, dilapidated Planet Hollywood loomed over the tourist area, and the Skylon Tower kinda looked old and sad, but it has some nice areas too.

What was kind of surprising was how run down St. Catharines is. The lakefront is rather nice, but the downtown was very depressing.

NF's "nicest" areas are to the NW, Stamford et al (as well as the formerly separate municipality of Chippewa to the south)--and of course, for psephological geeks like us, relative "niceness" can often be drawn through knowledge of relative historical-and-present strengths of each party within the neighbourhoods/polling stations through which we pass ;-)

One dilemma re Niagara Falls is that its particular form of populist tourist economy makes it "gentrification-proof": the kinds of inner-city neighbourhoods which'd be hipster-gentrified elsewhere still present an old-fashioned tatty "tourist home" tableau.

And to anyone overly accustomed to the relentlessness of US-style urban blight, even relatively tired Niagara Region urbanity can very often seem like a breath of fresh air...

[King of Kensington]

Keep in mind too that the municipality of Niagara Falls ON covers a much larger physical area than Niagara Falls NY as it annexed a bunch of townships that are suburban in character.  Those are the "nice" parts, the "inner city" isn't that appealing at all.

Not saying it's as bad as the NY side, but it's important to compare "apples."

[King of Kensington]

So it sounds like the NDP is targeting Ottawa South.  Of the pre-amalgamation seats, there is no obvious #2 target after Ottawa Centre (they're all pretty demographically similar in terms of education and incomes) so I'm guessing it's based on the quality of the candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Vanier is very clearly the #2 target seat in Ottawa. In 2011, they came within 10 points of winning it. And it is not demographically similar to the rest of the city at all (it has very rich neighbourhoods, very poor neighbourhoods, middle class, ethnic enclaves, student ghettos, inner city neighbourhoods, gentrification, post-war suburbs, etc.. whereas the rest of the city is mostly middle class suburbia)

I live in Ottawa South, and while the campaign has been more visible here than usual, it's still a hopeless cause.  The NDP almost always gets ~13% of the vote here, even with strong candidates. They got 18% in 2011 with the orange surge, so I'd imagine the NDP should get around ~25% of the vote this time, tops. Not enough to win.

Also an interesting tidbit about Ottawa South: some of the NDP swings are wild depending on what ethnicity the candidate is. If the NDP runs a Muslim, they will get ~30% of the vote in some of the ethnic polls, but if they run a White candidate they will lose almost all of that vote to the Liberals. There was one poll in Heron Gate where they went from 32% in the 2011 election to 0% in the 2013 by-election (and that was a visible campaign with a strong candidate).

[136or142]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Interesting if the P.Cs are back where they started (don't read too much into a single poll.)  Of course, it's not like the P.C support is the exact same in every riding as in 2014 yet alone every region, but if the poll is accurate and holds, there are several P.C held ridings that could fall to the NDP. (I know this has been discussed already, but I asked about it previously.)

[Boston Bread]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

[136or142]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

Oops.  Oh wait, that was just the warm-up for the 2014 results to provide greater context. 


2014 results
Liberal: 38.65%
P.C: 31.25
NDP: 23.75

(Symmetry!)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

Oops.  Oh wait, that was just the warm-up for the 2014 results to provide greater context. 


2014 results
Liberal: 38.65%
P.C: 31.25
NDP: 23.75

(Symmetry!)

What caused the major difference in Liberal vote efficiency from 2011 and 2014?
In 2011 the liberals won the PV by 2.2% but missed getting a majority by 1 seat whereas in 2014 the liberals won the PV by 7.4% and only won a 4 seat majority.

[136or142]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

Oops.  Oh wait, that was just the warm-up for the 2014 results to provide greater context. 


2014 results
Liberal: 38.65%
P.C: 31.25
NDP: 23.75

(Symmetry!)

What caused the major difference in Liberal vote efficiency from 2011 and 2014?
In 2011 the liberals won the PV by 2.2% but missed getting a majority by 1 seat whereas in 2014 the liberals won the PV by 7.4% and only won a 4 seat majority.

Hrm, never thought about it that way before.  The Liberals did gain 5 seats (out of 107 ridings.) What would you have expected?

[mileslunn]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

As for Niagara Falls, the riding did go Conservative federally so I think the NDP is more local candidate just as the fact it went Tory federally.  In terms of how the riding breaks down.

The largest is Niagara Falls which is largely a service based economy so that might tilt it to the left, but a lot of people working in the service industry are under 35 so less likely to vote and as a smaller city, it's big enough the PCs won't have a lock on it, but small enough they still can win under the right conditions.

Fort Erie is the second largest municipality and it is very much a blue collar populist so both NDP and PCs have strong potential there.  The Canadian Alliance won most of the polls there in 2000 while in 2011, NDP won most of the polls provincially so type of area you get a lot of the NDP-Tory crossovers and populist types.

Niagara on the Lake is the smallest and is fairly rural.  Has a large senior population so it did go Liberal when Kim Craitor was MPP, but don't think the NDP has ever done well here.  I suspect the PCs will probably win most of the polls here, but if the NDP wins the other two it won't matter.

St. Catharines - Notwithstanding Jim Bradley's personal popularity, it tends to at least federally be a bellwether as usually popular vote is not too far off provincial averages.  That being said the real question is Jim Bradley will win or not greatly outperform a generic Liberal candidate so even if he loses a lot will depend on whether he takes away more soft NDP support (thus helping the PCs) or may soft PC support (thus helping the NDP).

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

Oops.  Oh wait, that was just the warm-up for the 2014 results to provide greater context. 


2014 results
Liberal: 38.65%
P.C: 31.25
NDP: 23.75

(Symmetry!)

What caused the major difference in Liberal vote efficiency from 2011 and 2014?
In 2011 the liberals won the PV by 2.2% but missed getting a majority by 1 seat whereas in 2014 the liberals won the PV by 7.4% and only won a 4 seat majority.

Hrm, never thought about it that way before.  The Liberals did gain 5 seats (out of 107 ridings.) What would you have expected?

Based on past results probably a 10-12 seat majority.
Under the old map Federally in 2006 the liberals won a 2 seat majority in Ontario whole losing the Ontario PV by 2. Federally in 2015 the Liberals won the Ontario PV by 9 while winning a 39 seat majority. You could say the major factor is increased NDP support but the NDP only increased their PV support by 1.1% from 2011 to 2014.

[adma]

Let's also remember that btw/ 2011 and 2014, the Libs lost 3 seats to the NDP by way of byelection.

If you're wondering why the Libs didn't gain *more* seats given the widened differential, it's because the PCs were more "efficient" in most of the seats they held.  One can even counter-argue that given the 2.2% share margin in 2011, the Libs should have had something tighter than a 53-to-37 seat margin that year...

[adma]

As for Niagara Falls, the riding did go Conservative federally so I think the NDP is more local candidate just as the fact it went Tory federally.  In terms of how the riding breaks down.

As I've suggested, one reason Rob Nicholson hung on federally was a particularly weak Liberal candidate and strong NDP candidate--NF and Brantford-Brant are identical in that regard; but I'd advise against reading *too* much into the actual inherent Conservative strength there.  Let's remember, too, that it was a Judy LaMarsh federal Liberal stronghold in the 1960s when most of the rest of the Ontario heartland remained Tory; and that prior to the 1990 Rae landslide, Niagara Falls/Niagara South had been solid provincial Liberal bastions for ages.

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As I suggested, even aside from the service industry NF is pretty blue collar--more so than St Catharines.  Wayne Gates' base is no accident.

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One 2011 factor to consider: the NDP candidate was former Fort Erie Mayor Wayne Redekop.

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Actually, there are *two* NOTLs, so to speak: the more genteel demos of NOTL proper and Queenston (which'd normally lean Liberal these days), and the rural interior (Virgil et al) which is heavily Bible Belt and heavily Conservative, not unlike Wainfleet, West Lincoln, et al.

[Hatman 🍁]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

Barrie is also basically a giant exurb of Toronto, so that makes it fairly conservative too. I wouldn't agree it's the most conservative 100K+ city in Ontario though. Surely that distinction belongs to Whitby or Milton or Cambridge?

[DC Al Fine]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

Barrie is also basically a giant exurb of Toronto, so that makes it fairly conservative too. I wouldn't agree it's the most conservative 100K+ city in Ontario though. Surely that distinction belongs to Whitby or Milton or Cambridge?

I was going to say Thornhill but apparently it's just part of Vaughan and Markham. The more you know.

If we're going by election results, I'd say it's a toss up between Whitby and Milton.

[DC Al Fine]

The second big debate is coming up. Has there been any stink from the Greens and/or Libertarians about running full/near full slates and not being invited?

[SJ84]

In the case of Barrie, it is without question the most conservative city with over 100,000 people.  That can easily be explained as it lacks the type of things that would make other cities progressive.

1.  Weak union movement
2.  No university or college
3.  Very white

Barrie has Georgian College.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos:
NDP: 37
PC: 36
Lib: 23
Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/4222975/ontario-election-pcs-ndp-tied-ipsos-poll/?utm_source=NewsletterBarrie&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=2018

[Krago]

Here is a table showing the 2014 eDay results (no advance or special polls) for the largest municipalities in Ontario:

Municipality	LIB	PC	NDP	GRN
Toronto	48.8%	22.9%	22.7%	3.9%
Ottawa	45.1%	33.5%	14.2%	6.2%
Mississauga	49.7%	28.2%	15.8%	3.2%
Hamilton	32.4%	22.2%	38.3%	5.3%
Brampton	39.9%	22.3%	32.4%	3.5%
London	26.7%	26.1%	40.4%	4.7%
Markham	48.2%	35.5%	11.3%	3.3%
Vaughan	51.2%	34.1%	10.6%	2.2%
Kitchener	38.1%	27.3%	26.7%	6.1%
Burlington	43.2%	36.5%	14.7%	4.2%
Oakville	48.6%	37.1%	9.2%	3.8%
Windsor	28.4%	13.8%	51.2%	4.4%
Greater Sudbury	31.0%	12.6%	52.0%	3.8%
Richmond Hill	46.7%	36.4%	11.7%	3.3%
Oshawa	19.8%	30.7%	45.5%	3.9%
St. Catharines	38.4%	29.1%	27.4%	3.9%
Guelph	40.7%	20.4%	18.3%	19.9%
Whitby	33.0%	40.2%	22.0%	4.4%
Barrie	40.5%	35.1%	17.1%	6.6%
Kingston	40.4%	20.5%	31.4%	7.2%
Cambridge	38.7%	31.0%	23.1%	5.9%
Waterloo	30.4%	26.0%	37.6%	5.2%
Thunder Bay	55.3%	9.3%	28.7%	3.5%
Ajax	51.5%	27.7%	17.1%	3.1%
Chatham-Kent	23.7%	37.7%	31.9%	5.0%
Milton	43.6%	36.3%	15.1%	3.6%

[mileslunn]

Ipsos is the first one to show the NDP in the lead so good news for them.  Still seems a strong discrepancy between online polls which show NDP and PCs tied while IVR show things tightening but PCs still 8-10 points ahead.  Will be interesting if that gap stays until election or you see some convergence.  That being said I do find the fact PCs are ahead in 416 but NDP ahead in 905 a bit hard to believe although regionals to be fair have larger margins of error.  Also most NDP voters don't think they will win, so some might be anti-Wynne/anti-Ford, but definitely an NDP win is possible although still not yet a lock.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is a table showing the 2014 eDay results (no advance or special polls) for the largest municipalities in Ontario:

Municipality	LIB	PC	NDP	GRN
Toronto	48.8%	22.9%	22.7%	3.9%
Ottawa	45.1%	33.5%	14.2%	6.2%
Mississauga	49.7%	28.2%	15.8%	3.2%
Hamilton	32.4%	22.2%	38.3%	5.3%
Brampton	39.9%	22.3%	32.4%	3.5%
London	26.7%	26.1%	40.4%	4.7%
Markham	48.2%	35.5%	11.3%	3.3%
Vaughan	51.2%	34.1%	10.6%	2.2%
Kitchener	38.1%	27.3%	26.7%	6.1%
Burlington	43.2%	36.5%	14.7%	4.2%
Oakville	48.6%	37.1%	9.2%	3.8%
Windsor	28.4%	13.8%	51.2%	4.4%
Greater Sudbury	31.0%	12.6%	52.0%	3.8%
Richmond Hill	46.7%	36.4%	11.7%	3.3%
Oshawa	19.8%	30.7%	45.5%	3.9%
St. Catharines	38.4%	29.1%	27.4%	3.9%
Guelph	40.7%	20.4%	18.3%	19.9%
Whitby	33.0%	40.2%	22.0%	4.4%
Barrie	40.5%	35.1%	17.1%	6.6%
Kingston	40.4%	20.5%	31.4%	7.2%
Cambridge	38.7%	31.0%	23.1%	5.9%
Waterloo	30.4%	26.0%	37.6%	5.2%
Thunder Bay	55.3%	9.3%	28.7%	3.5%
Ajax	51.5%	27.7%	17.1%	3.1%
Chatham-Kent	23.7%	37.7%	31.9%	5.0%
Milton	43.6%	36.3%	15.1%	3.6%

Ahh, so Whitby is indeed #1, followed by Oakville, Burlington, Chatham-Kent, Richmond Hill, Milton, and then Barrie.

Thunder Bay is the most Liberal, Gr. Sudbury the most NDP and Guelph the most Green.

Do you have municipal results for other elections?

[Krago]

Here is a quick-and-dirty seat projection for Toronto and the GTA using the Ipsos numbers as compared to the 2014 general election.

Electoral District	Winning Candidate	Party	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn
Ajax	Monique Hughes	NDP	32%	30%	36%	2%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill	Michael Parsa	PC	28%	39%	29%	2%
Brampton Centre	Sara Singh	NDP	23%	26%	47%	2%
Brampton East	Gurratan Singh	NDP	19%	15%	63%	2%
Brampton North	Kevin Yarde	NDP	24%	25%	47%	2%
Brampton South	Paramjit Gill	NDP	28%	28%	41%	2%
Brampton West	Jagroop Singh	NDP	28%	24%	45%	2%
Burlington	Jane McKenna	PC	26%	38%	32%	2%
Durham	Joel Usher	NDP	21%	34%	42%	2%
King--Vaughan	Stephen Lecce	PC	31%	34%	32%	2%
Markham--Stouffville	Paul Calandra	PC	29%	36%	32%	2%
Markham--Thornhill	Logan Kanapathi	PC	31%	36%	29%	2%
Markham--Unionville	Billy Pang	PC	27%	41%	28%	2%
Milton	Parm Gill	PC	26%	39%	32%	2%
Mississauga Centre	Laura Kaminker	NDP	32%	28%	37%	2%
Mississauga East--Cooksville	Tom Takacs	NDP	31%	30%	36%	2%
Mississauga--Erin Mills	Farina Hassan	NDP	30%	32%	35%	2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore	Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	31%	35%	31%	2%
Mississauga--Malton	Nikki Clarke	NDP	29%	24%	44%	2%
Mississauga--Streetsville	Jacqueline Gujarati	NDP	31%	31%	35%	2%
Newmarket--Aurora	Christine Elliott	PC	27%	38%	31%	2%
Oakville	Stephen Crawford	PC	30%	39%	28%	2%
Oakville North--Burlington	Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	28%	38%	31%	2%
Oshawa	Jennifer French	NDP	12%	32%	53%	3%
Pickering--Uxbridge	Nerissa Cariño	NDP	29%	34%	34%	2%
Richmond Hill	Daisy Wai	PC	29%	37%	30%	2%
Thornhill	Gila Martow	PC	26%	45%	25%	2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge	Steven Del Duca	Lib	35%	29%	33%	2%
Wellington--Halton Hills	Ted Arnott	PC	18%	48%	30%	3%
Whitby	Lorne Coe	PC	20%	42%	35%	2%
York--Simcoe	Caroline Mulroney	PC	21%	41%	34%	2%
Beaches--East York	Rima Berns-McGown	NDP	22%	26%	49%	2%
Davenport	Marit Stiles	NDP	25%	21%	51%	2%
Don Valley East	Denzil Minnan-Wong	PC	32%	40%	25%	2%
Don Valley North	Vincent Ke	PC	28%	46%	23%	2%
Don Valley West	Jon Kieran	PC	30%	47%	20%	2%
Eglinton--Lawrence	Robin Martin	PC	30%	48%	20%	2%
Etobicoke Centre	Kinga Surma	PC	27%	47%	23%	2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore	Christine Hogarth	PC	26%	47%	24%	2%
Etobicoke North	Mahamud Amin	NDP	25%	35%	36%	2%
Humber River--Black Creek	Tom Rakocevic	NDP	25%	23%	49%	2%
Parkdale--High Park	Bhutila Karpoche	NDP	21%	25%	50%	2%
Scarborough--Agincourt	Aris Babikian	PC	27%	47%	23%	2%
Scarborough Centre	Christina Mitas	PC	30%	35%	32%	2%
Scarborough--Guildwood	Roshan Nallaratnam	PC	27%	41%	28%	2%
Scarborough North	Raymond Cho	PC	21%	41%	35%	2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park	Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	26%	37%	34%	2%
Scarborough Southwest	Doly Begum	NDP	27%	35%	35%	2%
Spadina--Fort York	Chris Glover	NDP	26%	31%	39%	2%
Toronto Centre	Suze Morrison	NDP	33%	30%	34%	2%
Toronto--Danforth	Peter Tabuns	NDP	20%	22%	54%	2%
Toronto--St. Paul's	Andrew Kirsch	PC	32%	40%	24%	2%
University--Rosedale	Jessica Bell	NDP	27%	33%	37%	2%
Willowdale	Stan Cho	PC	28%	46%	23%	2%
York Centre	Roman Baber	PC	26%	44%	27%	2%
York South--Weston	Faisal Hassan	NDP	26%	24%	47%	2%