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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #125 on: January 11, 2018, 05:06:53 pm »

Gilles Bisson has stated he will be running in the new Timmins ridings for the ONDP.
Guy Bourgouin, who appears to be a Francophone from Kapuskasing, will be seeking the ONDP nomination Mushkegowuk-James Bay.  No other candidates yet, but I really don't think in the case of the North-East anyway, that there will be an Indigenous candidate winning, as was the hope with the creating of the new ridings.

Oh well. Can't complain with the addition of a safe NDP seat Smiley
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« Reply #126 on: January 11, 2018, 07:38:31 pm »

Probably a smart move as Mushkegowuk-James Bay will go NDP no matter what whereas Timmins leans NDP but the PCs did reasonably well there so having an incumbent run there helps seal the deal.  As hatman mentioned in another topic, in Northern Ontario urban areas tend to be less left wing than rural areas in Northern Ontario, sort of the opposite of Southern Ontario.  Sudbury and Thunder Bay usually go Liberal, Sault Ste. Marie seems to either go Liberal or PC with one usually getting clobbered although sometimes NDP, but not a lot of NDP-Liberal swing voters and North Bay is more PC provincially, Liberal federally.
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« Reply #127 on: January 12, 2018, 08:42:11 am »

Probably a smart move as Mushkegowuk-James Bay will go NDP no matter what whereas Timmins leans NDP but the PCs did reasonably well there so having an incumbent run there helps seal the deal.  As hatman mentioned in another topic, in Northern Ontario urban areas tend to be less left wing than rural areas in Northern Ontario, sort of the opposite of Southern Ontario.  Sudbury and Thunder Bay usually go Liberal, Sault Ste. Marie seems to either go Liberal or PC with one usually getting clobbered although sometimes NDP, but not a lot of NDP-Liberal swing voters and North Bay is more PC provincially, Liberal federally.

This is what I expected from the get go; Bisson held the old Cochrane South seat which was based around Timmins, this is his home turf and made the most sense. Being the most competitive seat of the new north, this is a smart move for the NDP. I think the new Kenora-Rainy River will be also one to watch, with no NDP incumbent anymore and a former Conservative MP as the PC candidate (high profile), I can see this perhaps going PC... lean NDP still but competitive.

Guy Bourgouin is Metis, so if he wins (nomination) and wins (the seat) this will accomplish both electing a francophone and some who is Indigenous. He's from Kapuskasing (2014 the Liberals won over the area, I think it was noted that the OLP candidate was from here back then) and is President of one of the United Steelworkers locals (very NDP lol)
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« Reply #128 on: January 12, 2018, 03:00:39 pm »

I think Timmins and Kenora-Rainy River are both favoured to stay NDP, nonetheless the PCs will undoubtedly target both and will probably perform better than usual, but I will still venture to guess they will fall short, but you never know and often Northern Ontario's voting patterns in terms of swings don't mirror that of Southern Ontario. 

In terms of northern ridings I see the following at the moment.

Liberals:  They are unlikely win anything they don't have now.  Sudbury they will probably lose although might hold.  Thunder-Atikokan too close to call while Thunder Bay-Superior North is probably the only one they have a greater than even chance of holding, but even that is not a sure thing.

PCs:  Will definitely hold Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka.  Should hold Sault Ste. Marie but still somewhat vulnerable there.  Unlikely to pick up anything else, but Timmins, Kenora-Rainy River, and Sudbury are all possibilities, but each uphill battles.  The remaining ones are off limits.

NDP:  Asides from Timmins and Kenora-Rainy River, should easily hold all the others and will probably hold those two as well.  Excellent chance at picking up Sudbury, possible pick up of Thunder Bay-Atikokan, while Thunder Bay-Superior North and Sault Ste. Marie will be more challenging but still winneable.  Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka are the only two they definitely won't win.
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« Reply #129 on: January 12, 2018, 04:39:47 pm »

I'm just a little worried for Gilles.  In the last election, in the transposed election results for just the city of Timmins (which is the new riding) from the 2014 election are as follow (from ElectionsPredictions/Kyle Hutton):

LIB    20.49%
PC     31.34%
NDP   45.98%
Green  1.97%

With a stronger PC candidate, higher PC polling, and the total angst against the Liberals in the North, it can be close.
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« Reply #130 on: January 12, 2018, 05:05:36 pm »

I'm just a little worried for Gilles.  In the last election, in the transposed election results for just the city of Timmins (which is the new riding) from the 2014 election are as follow (from ElectionsPredictions/Kyle Hutton):

LIB    20.49%
PC     31.34%
NDP   45.98%
Green  1.97%

With a stronger PC candidate, higher PC polling, and the total angst against the Liberals in the North, it can be close.

Nah. Take my word for it. PCs have a high floor in Timmins but it's not enough to actually win without a divided NDP/Liberal vote, which there won't be.
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« Reply #131 on: January 12, 2018, 06:41:33 pm »

The only areas where the NDP might lose some votes is Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara Peninsula where probably some angry at the Liberals who couldn't vote PC then voted NDP.  But in Northern Ontario I don't think you have to worry too much about that.  Also with 46% of the popular vote, that would mean the Liberals would have to implode completely and all of that transfer over to the PCs so even if Liberals drop to single digits and 2/3 of it flows to the PCs, the NDP still comes out ahead.

Of the NDP ridings the only ones I could see the PCs having a decent shot at are Oshawa, Niagara Falls, Waterloo, and London West and maybe Brampton East if strong splits although I think that would go Liberal before going PC.  Niagara Centre is somewhat vulnerable since it is open but still think the NDP should hold that one.  Essex has gone Tory federally, but the NDP MPP has enough personal popularity they should be fine there.  And even the one's mentioned the NDP still has at least a 50% chance in every riding they currently hold.  Never mind with Howarth tacking leftward, I could see her picking up some lost Toronto ones like Davenport, Beaches-East York and York South-Weston.  While London North Centre I could see going NDP.  Brantford-Brant leans PC, but would go NDP before Liberal.  Likewise if the PCs get under 40% and NDP hits the 30% mark, Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Sarnia-Lambton are possibilities, but if the PCs are over 40%, they are likely close to 50% in those so won't flip then.
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« Reply #132 on: January 12, 2018, 08:29:43 pm »

Campaign research is the first poll out this year and it seems minimum wage debate is having no impact either way.  Brackets gives differences from December.

PC 35% (+1)
Lib 34% (-1)
NDP 23% (+1)

So all changes within the statistical margin of error.  Strong age divide with Liberals well ahead amongst those under 45, but PCs well ahead amongst those over 45 so wonder if we will see a similar split in age lines like the last British election.  On minimum wage, 60% support while 31% oppose however if asking whether it would make one more or less likely to vote Liberal 21% say more likely, 27% said less likely and 47% said neither more or less likely.

Since other polls have shown more favourable numbers for the PCs and this is an online poll, it will be interesting to see what they say.  If they show no change, then that probably means the PCs are in front in and around the 40% mark, Liberals in second in the low 30s and NDP in third in low to mid 20s.  In some ways the PCs promising to keep the $14/hour minimum wage and simply slow the increase over 4 years blunts a lot of the potential attacks.  The Liberals when they did this, likely did so as a trap for the PCs thus the reason for a massive increase hoping the PCs would promise to cut it and thus could use that against them.  They've tried to bait Brown on many issues and so far hasn't taken the bait.  Opposite of Tim Hudak who you didn't need to bait, you just had to let him talk to see their numbers go down.
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« Reply #133 on: January 12, 2018, 09:28:27 pm »

You might as well just ignore every Campaign Research poll. There's a reason every one of their polls is an outlier.
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« Reply #134 on: January 13, 2018, 12:01:03 pm »

Note that this poll has Liberal support down 1% and yetbthe Toronto Star headline claims the Liberals are gaining ground. That new math from the Liberal Star
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« Reply #135 on: January 13, 2018, 05:22:08 pm »

Some more FAKE NEWS from the failing Toronto Star Wink Sad!
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« Reply #136 on: January 16, 2018, 11:33:13 am »

Look for Forum to come out with a poll in the next day or two that will show a bigger than ever PC lead. They posted a poll on attitudes towards the minimum wage and in the crosstab banners it has party support of 448 PC (46%), 238 OLP (24%) and 187 NDP (19%)...note that these would be UNWEIGHTED numbers and the weighting typically boosts the NDP and lowers the PCs since younger people are typically so grossly undersampled in IVR polls.

In their December poll on party support which had the PCs at 40%, ONDP at 26% and OLP at 24%, the raw unweighted numbers were PCs 341 (42%), OLP 218 (27%) and ONDP 159 (19%)

The headline will likely be how despite high support for raising the minimum wage, Ontarians just hate Kathleen Wynne too much to be any more likely to vote for her...
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« Reply #137 on: January 16, 2018, 12:00:38 pm »

that should've been 160 NDP cases, as they called me, but I missed the call! Sad
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« Reply #138 on: January 16, 2018, 01:53:18 pm »

that should've been 160 NDP cases, as they called me, but I missed the call! Sad

I am sure some Liberals and PCs also missed there's, didn't answer, or declined Smiley  My understanding on a more serious note is response rate I believe for polling is only 1 for every 8 calls made.  Off course pollsters weight things by demographics so if certain groups are under represented it accounts for this.  As for Campaign research, I get the impression it is the same people being asked each month so good way to track changes, but bad way to get an accurate sample.  Usually you survey different people realizing 1 in every 20 polls will be a rogue one thus that way if one is a rogue, the next one won't be whereas if you survey the same people you can continue to get the wrong response.  The USC/Dornsife Daybreak poll in the LA times was a classical example of this that showed Trump ahead when everyone showed him behind.  And note Trump did not win the popular vote so if polls were correct they would have shown him 2 points behind Clinton.
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« Reply #139 on: January 17, 2018, 09:50:00 am »

Forum has their's: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/d0186a29-31a5-43a7-a8cf-18871885e292January%20ON%20Horserace.pdf

PC - 43%
OLP - 24%
NDP - 24%
... looks like the shift from November was NDP to PC (PC up 3, NDP down 2)

What's interesting is the impact that has on Seat estimates (a guess at best, but interesting):
Jan Poll          Nov Poll
PC - 88          PC - 80
NDP - 24        NDP - 31  
OLP - 12        OLP - 11
That two point shift moved about 7 seats from the NDP to PCs, that's interesting, the OLP lose 1 yet their vote remains the same.

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« Reply #140 on: January 17, 2018, 04:45:38 pm »

Whichever poll you believe it seems the minimum wage hike is popular, but its not moving any voters, otherwise that suggests to me people like it but it is not the number one issue.  As for forum, their topline numbers seem quite plausible, but the seat count I question.  Since we rarely have uniform swings you need a much larger sample to get an accurate seat count.  In the UK they usually survey 20,000 people for their exit polls and use those to predict the actual number of seats (note they were quite close last time, 314 conservatives vs. 317 actual; 266 labour vs. 262 actual, and 14 Liberal Democrats vs. 12 actual), but with 1,000 that is large enough to be able to predict what type of government will be formed and percentages, but not to actually predict how the seats will fall.

In downtown Toronto, the PCs rarely fall below 10%, but they rarely go much higher as most are decidedly progressive and swing between the NDP and Liberals.  In the 905 belt you tend to get much bigger swings than you do province wide as that is where you have a lot of Blue Liberals/Red Tories.  In Rural Ontario, the PCs in most ridings have 40% locked up no matter what, but rarely go above the mid 50s and 60% seems to be their ceiling so usually when the PCs win their support in the 905 belt is similar to rural Ontario whereas when they lose the PCs still hold up much better in rural Ontario than they do in the 905 belt.  In Northern Ontario, PC support in most ridings can range from single digits to low 30s so wild swings like you saw in the Sault Ste. Marie by-election are not uncommon there, but rare in Southern Ontario.

I think a more accurate statement is the PCs would win a majority if an election were held today (assuming Forum is accurate) and the fight for opposition would be between the NDP and Liberals.  Off course things can still and likely will change before e-day.  I think the split between the NDP and Liberals will disappear depending on the ballot question.  If it is which party is best to stop the PCs or prevent a PC majority you will probably see progressives coalesce around one of the two.  If it is about changing governments, I suspect unless the PCs do something really stupid, you will see some NDP supporters flow to the PCs (I know that sounds strange, but you do have some change voters who care more about change than ideology, example in last Alberta election many Wildrose supporters swung over to the NDP late in the campaign as they looked like the best party to defeat the PCs and in Manitoba the implosion of the Liberals provincially benefited the PCs more than NDP).  Now if the PCs mess up and the NDP does really well its also plausible you could see some soft PC supporters go over to the NDP to get rid of the Liberals.  More likely you will see some strategic voting whereby perhaps some PC supporters in NDP-Liberal battles will strategically vote NDP.  While in PC-Liberal races, NDP voters vote strategically with those wanting a progressive government going Liberal and those wanting to get rid of Wynne going PC.

I think with the minimum wage, the reason the Liberals aren't moving up is when people tire of a leader, sometimes there is nothing they can do.  While we will have to see what happens on June 7th, if these numbers materialize, I think this will be a case of where Wynne should have stepped down in early 2017 and let someone else take over the reigns.
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« Reply #141 on: January 17, 2018, 05:22:47 pm »

IMHO the reason the minimum wage issue isn't moving any votes is that people may agree with the idea of increasing it in principle, but they see it as an act of desperation by Wynne and as being poorly implemented - also its not a wedge issue, the PCs won't roll it back and only say they will take a bit longer to go from $14 to $15 (which likely makes sense to a lot of people) and the NDP is even more in favour of raising the minimum wage than are the Liberals.
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« Reply #142 on: January 19, 2018, 04:02:45 pm »

Two things.  Mainstreet has a poll out on Tuesday for Ontario.  Also has BC and Saskatchewan on Monday who both have leadership races while has Quebec and New Brunswick on Tuesday, and Alberta on Wednesday.

David Livingston, McGuinty's chief of staff was found guilty in the gas plant trial.  I suspect any gains the Liberals made over the minimum wage will be hurt from this, although I don't expect a shift of more than few points.  Nonetheless doesn't help the Liberals one bit.
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« Reply #143 on: January 23, 2018, 02:49:19 am »

Mainstreet now has the numbers out for Ontario and they are good news for the PCs, somewhat good but not great for the OLP, while bad for the NDP.  That being said of the three pollsters since the new year they all seem to agree on two parties but are off for one.  Mainstreet is the outlier for the NDP, Forum for the OLP, and Campaign research for the PCs.

43.3%
32%
17.9%
6.8%

PC's lead every region except the 416.  Have a 20+ point lead in Southwestern Ontario, South Central Ontario, and Northern Ontario (I find this one hard to believe as this usually goes NDP, but probably the toughest region to poll due to wide variations).  Have an 11 point lead in the 905, 8 point lead in Eastern Ontario, while the Liberals are 4 points ahead in the 416.

With 135 days left, I would say the PCs are definitely the prohibitive favourites and unless they screw up badly should win the most seats.  Whether they win a majority or not will depend on whether they hold these numbers which will mean a majority, but if they drop 3-5 points it might be a minority depending on splits.  Liberals will likely come in second in votes but due to distribution of votes anything from falling to third place if they underperform to a strong second seems plausible as unlike the PCs and NDP, their vote is fairly evenly spread out across the GTA, so they usually either dominate it like they did in the 2008 election, or lose almost all of it like in 2011 (note the shift in votes was not massive, but in seats it was between elections).  NDP seem to be stuck in third and need to make a move soon.  The problem I think they face is two fold.

Most NDP voters fall into one of the two categories.

1.  Progressive voters who want to keep the PCs out so at the moment at least the Liberals seem to be the stronger choice if that is one's goal.
2.  Change voters and if your goal is to unseat the Liberals, PCs seem a better vehicle at the moment.

Interestingly enough the three regions the PCs are ahead by 20+ do seem to have rather similar demographics to the areas that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then swung over to Trump in 2016 and likewise similar to areas that traditionally voted Labour in the UK, but voted heavily in favour of Brexit. 

That being said if the PCs only get a minority, do you think the Liberals and NDP will gang up to keep them out or let them form a minority?  I would like to hear what some Liberal or NDP supporters think.
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« Reply #144 on: January 23, 2018, 06:50:47 am »

That being said if the PCs only get a minority, do you think the Liberals and NDP will gang up to keep them out or let them form a minority?  I would like to hear what some Liberal or NDP supporters think.

I really doubt they do. This wouldn't be Ontario 1985 or BC 2017 where the many term incumbent is nearly defeated and the cooperation puts the challengers over the top. Nor would it be Canada 1972, where the incumbent government is still in first place. The Ontario government is deeply unpopular and mired in scandal. The media's post election narrative would almost certainly be about the Liberal party being chastened. I don't see what the NDP would gain by propping that government up, when they can attack the Tories instead.
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« Reply #145 on: January 23, 2018, 02:56:58 pm »

That being said if the PCs only get a minority, do you think the Liberals and NDP will gang up to keep them out or let them form a minority?  I would like to hear what some Liberal or NDP supporters think.

I really doubt they do. This wouldn't be Ontario 1985 or BC 2017 where the many term incumbent is nearly defeated and the cooperation puts the challengers over the top. Nor would it be Canada 1972, where the incumbent government is still in first place. The Ontario government is deeply unpopular and mired in scandal. The media's post election narrative would almost certainly be about the Liberal party being chastened. I don't see what the NDP would gain by propping that government up, when they can attack the Tories instead.

If Brown and the Tories are smart, the majority of campaign resources will go to the GTHA and Toronto Ė itís the best play for the upcoming election. The fact is if you want to reform government in Ontario, you HAVE to win lots of seats in the GTHA and pick up, at minimum, a few Toronto seats. The Tories have the best shot at winning the election but they have to fight hard to win in the GTHA and Toronto.

If the Tories only win a minority government, I think the only way the Tories will govern is if the NDP are the official opposition party.

Why?

Andrea Horwath is on thin ice going into this election because if the NDP come in third again, she will have to step down as leader and resign. If the NDP slide in second place behind the minority Tories, Horwath can stay on as leader as she can say they made progressive on winning more seats and she will keep the governmentís record in check. You canít keep winning third place and expect to hold onto a leadership role. Then that means Patrick Brown and the Tories will have to work with a Kathleen Wynne-less Liberal government to get things done. I can see Horwath wanting to fight both parties at once to say the NDP is the only true alternative for the next Ontario election.

But what if the Liberals come in second behind an elected Tory minority government? It means Kathleen Wynne will make a deal with the Horwath-less NDP to work together as one party. Yes, I think Wynne would do that as she is desperate to hold onto power.

In the end, Iím hoping for PC majority government with Brown leading the way. Itís time for change in Ontario and that change starts with the Tories.
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« Reply #146 on: January 23, 2018, 05:13:38 pm »

The Tories don't need to win any Toronto seats to get to a majority.
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« Reply #147 on: January 23, 2018, 06:15:47 pm »

Speaking of Toronto...  I know we discussed this a lot around the time of the federal redistribution, but I spent some time starting at maps of west Toronto this evening, and it's going to be tough for the NDP to win either of the Trinity-Spadina successor ridings. It's almost as if they've been gerrymandered against the NDP (wasn't Olivia Chow in favour of this split?). I guess at the time it seemed as if the NDP could win both, but in most elections, I'd say they can win neither. A better split would've put Forest Hill and Rosedale together (to make a district for old money) and lump in the northern part of Trinity-Spadina with the southern part of Davenport to make a safer NDP seat. The rest of Davenport and St. Paul's could be called Oakwood or something.

Oh well, too late now. The NDP can always win back Davenport at least.
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« Reply #148 on: January 23, 2018, 06:50:29 pm »

If the PCs win a minority I don't think a coalition to knock them out is automatic, possible but not a guarantee.

If the NDP comes in second, the Liberals will not agree to be junior partner as that would be signing their death warrant.

If the Liberals come in second, it will depend on a number of variables
-  If PCs get 62 seats no coalition as they will refuse to put up a speaker unless the NDP and Liberals agree to let them govern so that would make the coalition not viable.
-  If the PCs get 60-61 seats, the coalition/arrangement would be too shaky and the PCs could gain a majority just from by-election pick-ups.
- If PCs say only get 55 seats then it is more likely but not guaranteed to happen.

Actually a PC minority with a Liberal opposition is the worst possible case scenario for the NDP.  Back the PCs and anger much of the progressive base who hate them while back the Liberals and pay a big price for keeping an unpopular tired government in power.  Ontario in 1985 and BC in 2017 both involved removing long serving tired incumbents, not prolonging the power of a long serving tired incumbent.  I suspect if this happens, Wynne will probably speak to David Peterson and Bob Rae who know best about this and David Peterson, based on what he said in the 2008 one and the most recent BC one will probably advise her not to go there.  If the Liberals do this it might keep them in power longer, but will just mean a worse defeat next time and a tougher time rebuilding so better to go into opposition and focus on rebuilding.  If the Liberals and NDP decide to do this, there will be a rash of polls on what the public thinks and if the PCs surge in the polls like the Tories did in 2008, one of the two will probably blink.  So definitely could happen, but far from a guarantee.

Besides with the current numbers the PCs would probably get around 75 seats anyways.  If they are competitive in the 416, they will win seats as that means they are probably leading in Etobicoke and North York, and competitive in Scarborough since the PCs always do poorly in the old city of Toronto no matter how they do province wide.  Just for comparison Harper in 2011 got only 31% in the 416, Liberals got 35%, and NDP 30% while in the old city of Toronto, Harper only got a mere 21% so both Forum and Mainstreet show Brown with better numbers in the 416 than Harper in 2011 if correct and this holds up.  If the PCs have a 10 point lead or more in the 905 belt, they will win almost all of them.  Likewise leads elsewhere means they will hold what they have and pick up the marginal like Cambridge, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Peterborough-Kawartha, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Ottawa West-Nepean, and maybe even Orleans.  It will only be the urban ridings, Northern Ontario ridings (I am skeptical of the 24 point lead for the PCs in Northern Ontario, mind you Nanos had similar numbers but Forum shows NDP ahead) and perhaps a few like Essex, Niagara Falls, and St. Catherines where a generic candidate from each would result in a PC one, but popularity of current MPP will allow them to hold it.
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« Reply #149 on: January 23, 2018, 08:33:33 pm »

Speaking of Toronto...  I know we discussed this a lot around the time of the federal redistribution, but I spent some time starting at maps of west Toronto this evening, and it's going to be tough for the NDP to win either of the Trinity-Spadina successor ridings. It's almost as if they've been gerrymandered against the NDP (wasn't Olivia Chow in favour of this split?). I guess at the time it seemed as if the NDP could win both, but in most elections, I'd say they can win neither. A better split would've put Forest Hill and Rosedale together (to make a district for old money) and lump in the northern part of Trinity-Spadina with the southern part of Davenport to make a safer NDP seat. The rest of Davenport and St. Paul's could be called Oakwood or something.

Oh well, too late now. The NDP can always win back Davenport at least.

Oh, would Marit Stiles replace Andrea Horwath as Ontario NDP leader?
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