Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

Sorry to keep asking provincial Canadian questions. But a "brief" (by Atlas standards, i.e. comprehensive multi-paragraph) - brief explainer of Doug Ford, his image, his policies (if they exist)? I know who votes for him. I don't know why.

Considering PC support has been in the low 40s for most of the last two years even when Patrick Brown was leader, I think it has less to do with the appeal of Doug Ford and more the unpopularity of the present Liberal government and desire to see them defeated.  The NDP as a third party are largely ignored as I've generally found when people want change they tend to turn to the opposition party and only skip to the third party if they dislike both the government and opposition.

Sure Ford doesn't have a lot of policies, and he does say stupid things, but as the old saying goes, people don't elect governments, governments defeat themselves.  So if he wins on June 7th (which is not a given), it will be more due to desire to get rid of the Wynne Liberals than to elect him.

If you are asking why Wynne is so unpopular.  The main reason is the government has been in power for 15 years and has had its share of scandals and harmful policies (high electricity rates for example) so its the general fatigue people get when a party has been in power too long.  Many rightly or wrongly feel the Wynne Liberals are tone deaf and don't listen to others and only care about power.  Generally speaking after a decade in power, people are ready for change so its always going to be an uphill battle to win re-election when you've been in office that long.

[mileslunn]

Well, our poll (as miles pointed out) also shows the PCs way ahead with under 35s so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ We also asked past vote, and a plurality of under 35 respondents indicated they voted Liberal, but many have switched allegiances. Some of the PC vote came from people who didn't vote in 2014 too. Something to keep an eye on, anyway. I guess I can just blame the erratic nature of subsamples.

I also have noticed in all polls millennials tend to be under sampled (I am sure weighting adjusts this) as I believe with most being cells only with call displays they have a lower response rate.  In addition millennials tend to be less loyal to one party than older voters are I've found.  In addition with how much many are struggling, populism does seem to sell well with millennials.  In Italy, the Five Star Movement won big amongst millennials so could be sort of like that with Doug Ford.  Another example is in Quebec, I believe amongst millennials it is a close fight between the CAQ and QS and the CAQ is on the right too but also somewhat populists.

Interesting how well Liberals are doing amongst seniors and all three polls show this.  I am guessing the free prescription drugs was a big hit so wouldn't be surprised if Ford promises to keep this as it has a relatively low price tag compared to others and this is the group that generally votes so PCs need to do well amongst them.  It seems now Tories strongest amongst middle age voters and that was probably the group the budget did little for.  No free prescription drugs, their children are either grown up or in high school so childcare irrelevant.  Also peak earnings usually come around 55 so tax cuts as opposed to more programs would probably be appealing there whereas when 25 or 75 you use a lot more programs but don't pay much in taxes thus why Wynne's budget might be more appealing.

[mileslunn]

I think when it comes to millennial votes, Ipsos sounds more accurate although Mainstreet and Ekos may end up being correct.  The reason for this is I've found millennials as a whole are fairly left leaning, but the minority who are on the right are much more likely to vote thus the lower millennial turnout is, the higher the percentage of those who do vote will be PC, whereas the more that show up the worst the PCs will do amongst them.  Also gender gap is another issue as it seems in all polls males are more likely to respond than females and since percentage who are married is lower amongst millennials than other groups you probably are likely to get a larger gender gap.  Ford does well amongst male millennials, but quite poorly amongst female millennials so if you don't weight by gender it might show Ford doing better amongst millennials due to higher response rate from males than females.

[mileslunn]

Abacus is now out and somewhat similar in topline but like Ipsos and unlike Ekos and Mainstreet show a strong divergence amongst millennials.  It seems online polls show millennials heavily tilting to the left while IVR favouring PCs.  Amongst older voters seems more consensus.  Off course if millennials don't show up it won't matter, but if they do could be interesting.  Both favour PCs, but it seems their majority is based heavily on vote splitting whereas with IVR it is a more solid lead.

PC 40%
Liberal 28%
NDP 24%
Green 6%

[mileslunn]

Liberals to do a million dollar ad buy to run attack ads on Doug Ford.  See www.realdougford.ca for the ideas they will be using.  Doubt it will help the Liberals much as Wynne is so unpopular not sure there is anything they can do to recover, but could damage Ford's approval rating.  If anything I think the NDP is the one most likely to benefit here as most have decided Ontario needs change it is what type.  At the moment the PCs are by far most favoured to be the party of change but if Ford becomes enough of a liability could benefit the NDP.  Still the NDP hasn't cracked the 30% mark since 2015 so perhaps their support is pretty baked in.

[mileslunn]

Why is Wynne so unpopular?

Largely because her government has been in power for almost 15 years and they have had their fair share of scandals and baggage. Also rising electricity prices. In addition the government comes across as arrogant and out of touch.

[mileslunn]

I think sexism is overblown here as lets remember in 2014 Wynne started the campaign trailing in the polls and came back.  True Hudak's dumb moves were a big part of it, but its not as though she didn't win once.  Andrea Howarth who is a woman has favourable ratings and while not doing too well in the polls, she has potential to grow, more so than either Ford or Wynne (Yes Ford has a higher ceiling, but he also has a much stronger base than Howarth does).  Likewise had the PCs chosen Christine Elliott instead of Doug Ford they would probably have a bigger lead in the polls (likely north of 45%) as Elliott is more well liked amongst the general population than Ford is.  In fact Elliott would have more or less guaranteed a PC win whereas with Ford it may be likely, but far from certain as he is far more polarizing and has much higher negatives.  Of the four PC leadership candidates, I believe Christine Elliott would fare the best in a general election followed by Caroline Mulroney while only Tanya Granic Allen would do worse than Doug Ford.  But she is a complete nutbar and on the far right so her views not gender would be the issue. 

I think the Manitoba comparison is fair.  If you go out to the West Coast, lets remember the BC Liberals were headed for almost certain defeat in 2013, but won (I believe had the party still been led by Gordon Campbell or any of the other three candidates they would have lost) and likewise in 2017 after 16 years in power with all the baggage, the BC Liberals did win the popular vote and most seats.  True Christy Clark is not premier now due to the NDP/Green deal but coming within a 150 votes of a majority after 16 years in power is pretty impressive.  I also don't think Canada is any more sexist than the UK and Britain has had two female prime-ministers while both Australia and New Zealand have also had female PMs.  In the case of New Zealand, it is true Jacinda Ardern didn't win the popular vote, but the party was trailing by 20 points 2 months before the election under their previous leader and it was by switching to her they were able to get enough votes to make forming a coalition possible.  Not saying sexism doesn't exist, it does, but blaming Wynne's unpopularity on it is silly as most parties after 15 years in power with all the baggage have atrocious approval ratings.

[mileslunn]

Innovative Research is out with a poll.  Shows PCs with biggest lead amongst struggling strivers while much like Ekos only amongst haves are Liberals competitive.  Both PCs and NDP have highest ceiling while Liberals have the lowest so in line with other polls

PC44%
Lib26%
NDP22%
Green7%

[mileslunn]

NDP has now released their platform which includes in its highlights the following:
-  5 years of deficit including $3.3 billion which is lower than the Liberals but possibly higher than the PCs.
-  Immediate minimum wage hike to $15/hour no waiting until January 1, 2019
-  Raise the corporate tax rate to 13% (so Ontario would have the highest corporate tax rate outside Atlantic Canada)
-  Raise the top rate by 1% for those making over 220K, 2% over 300K so a combined federal + Provincial total of 55.53% which would be the highest in North America and one of the highest (although not the highest) in the OECD.  Also a luxury tax on vehicles over 90K
- $12/a day childcare and free for those making less than 40K
-  Free dental care and pharmacare
- 100% buy back of the shares of Hydro One

So in summary a fairly left wing one suggesting to me the Liberals and NDP are largely fighting over the same voters.  It was signed off by Kevin Page so adds some fiscal credibility.  Still considering how poorly the Liberal budget went over with voters I am guessing the individual items will be quite popular but the general direction won't be.  The NDP has greater potential for growth than the Liberals due to lack of baggage, but both are fighting over similar voters so one needs to implode for either party to realistically have a shot at winning.  Also strong turnout amongst millennials will be key to either Liberals or NDP winning and also hope Ford shoots himself in the foot which is quite plausible.

[mileslunn]

Looking at the polls just over 50 days out from the election, here is where I think things stand.

Progressive Conservatives: They have a solid lead and if an election were held today would almost certainly win, probably a majority.  It is otherwise theirs to lose, but I have seen parties blow bigger leads (NDP in BC in 2013, Liberals in Ontario in 1995), but more often than not parties with that type of lead do go on to win.  Nevertheless a PC minority is still very possible as it would only take a 3 to 4 point shift away from the PCs for this to happen and considering how polarizing Ford is as well as his tendency to stick his foot in his mouth, it cannot be ruled out.

Liberals: Wynne has thrown everything she can to try to win and nothing seems to be working.  I get the impression the desire for change is so strong that there maybe is nothing she can do.  I am not ruling out the Liberals win, but it would be one of the biggest comebacks we've ever seen.  Essentially Wynne needs to pull an inside straight to win.  Her best chance of still being premier on Canada Day is hold the PCs to a minority, come in second in seats and get Howarth to agree to a supply and confidence.

NDP: Right now they are well back and certainly face an uphill battle, but unlike the Liberals, they have far more room to grow therefore the idea of premier Howarth on July 1st is more likely than premier Wynne.  Their biggest obstacle is in too many parts of the province they are irrelevant so an NDP minority is definitely plausible, but majority is a long stretch but not impossible after all Notley had even worse numbers at this point.  That being said the NDP needs the Liberals to implode and also the PCs to slide too.  As long as the Liberals are polling at over 25%, they won't be able to win and likewise as long as the PCs stay above 40% they won't either.  But if they can push the Liberals down into the teens and PCs into the 30s, then it becomes plausible.

[mileslunn]

Certainly no doubt the negative reaction to the Liberal budget could be fatigue with the party.  Although the question becomes do people just want a change of players with minor differences or do they want major change.  Polls for what they are worth show new spending is popular, but they also show most want a balanced budget and lower taxes thus tough to know.  For the NDP they need to hope the Liberals implode to have a chance as that would push them up into the 30s thus solid opposition.  To win they then have to hope Ford trips up (which is very possible) and then pick up some soft PC voters or those voters stay home so the NDP can win but they need a lot to go right for them. 

Now if they form opposition, there is a good chance they will form government in either in 2022 (if Ford is a disaster) or 2026 or 2030 depending on when people tire of the PCs as unlike federally there is no Justin Trudeau like figure waiting in the wings of the Liberals, so if they fall to third place there is a good chance they will go the way of the UK Liberal Democrats, winning in a few upscale trendy ridings but irrelevant elsewhere.

[mileslunn]

Ford has promised no income taxes for those making minimum wage.  While it may not be as popular as raising the minimum wage to $15/hour, it does blunt the attacks he will get.  It means one is $800 better off while minimum wage increase is $2,000 assuming one works full time and their hours are not cut back.  Also cost is only $500 million so not a big spending.  I think this will be mildly positive but not a big hit.  The Liberals and NDP will attack it but I suspect those who feel very strongly about raising the minimum wage to $15/hour aren't going to be voting PC anyways.  While PCs are strongest amongst working class voters, its mainly those making around $20/hour not $15/hour where their strongest support is and I've found often those making just above minimum wage are most resentful as it erodes their standing and purchasing power while those well above it tend to be more supportive since it helps others and has limited impact on themselves.

[mileslunn]

BrightPoint Strategies which I have never heard of before has a poll out and despite being lead by Kevin Gaudet who is a conservative their numbers largely line up with other pollsters.  It did like Forum show a tightening after the budget but that has disappeared.

PC 41.6%
Liberal 26.3%
NDP 23%
Green 7.2%

[mileslunn]

Looking at the polls and the way the Liberals are acting, do people think Wynne and her party still actually believe they can win or have they shifted more to the strategy of just trying to hold as many seats as possible, but realize they cannot win this election.  I don't think a Ford win is a foregone conclusion but I do think an NDP win is more likely than a Liberal one although PCs still heavily favoured.  The only way I can see Wynne remaining premier is if the Liberals come in second, the PCs only win a minority and they can get the NDP to agree to supply and confidence although the NDP would be screwed big time if this happens.  They let Ford become premier, their supporters won't forgive them, while if they keep Wynne in office they will get punished for allowing a premier most wanted gone to remain.  In that case they would actually be wise to tell the Liberals they will only support them if they change leaders.

[mileslunn]

Forum has a poll out today on public response to issues.  50% preferred eliminating taxes for those on minimum wage than raising by $1/hour while 35% preferred an increase of minimum wage by 1%.  On corporate tax cuts of 1% as Doug Ford proposed, 37% support, while 40% opposed so it seems the PC policies weren't big hits, but not exactly harmful either.

For the NDP all of their policies had support but it wasn't overwhelming.  Interestingly enough all of them were popular amongst Liberal supporters but not so much amongst PC supporters meaning they have a decent chance at uniting progressives, but they will probably need Ford to do something stupid if they want to win outright.  Raising taxes on the rich not surprisingly was the most popular, but 34% opposed it which is actually fairly high compared to past times this has been asked, but perhaps after a few tax hikes on the rich there is less enthusiasm than earlier, but still popular nonetheless.  Childcare was the closest to being split down the middle.

[mileslunn]

My understanding is PVI is where they are at relative to their provincewide average.  So if Eric Grenier's projections were correct (43% PC, OLP 26%, NDP 23%) that would mean OLP +17 and NDP+20 they would win while everything else would go PC.  Or would it be half the difference otherwise Liberals win OLP +9 and NDP +10?

[mileslunn]

An example of what Hatman is talking about: Thornhill is way more conservative federally than provincially thanks to the Israel issue. If we pretend 2018 is a Liberal landslide, Thornhill would be more likely to get picked off than PVI would indicate.

True enough.  On the other hand Nipissing would be far more PC friendly in PVI than federal results would suggest.  Part of that is Vic Fideli's personal popularity, but for whatever reason it seems since the 80s the PCs have generally done better there than they have provincially.  For about a short period, OLP support was much stronger in Southwestern Ontario than federally (ridings like Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, and Chatham-Kent-Leamington started voting Tory federally before they did provincially) although now Liberals are quite weak there.  Still its a good starting point even if imperfect.

[mileslunn]

Leger is out with another poll.  Mainstreet will have Ontario on Monday and according to a tweet there is a significant change for one party, so will be interesting.  That being said a big drop for the PCs would only bring them in line with others (they had PCs at 50% last time around so even a 10 point drop would put them just below the average of other polls and five point drop still above most other polls).

PC 43%
Liberal 26%
NDP 26%

While NDP and Liberals are tied for second, NDP would form the official opposition due to distribution as well as they seem to as others have suggested have more room for growth than Liberals do.

For best premier it was:

Ford 25%
Howarth 20%
Wynne 12%

When asked if it would be a disaster if elected, the following responded yes

NDP 33%
PC 44%
Lib 59%

Otherwise at this point, I think the PCs are heavily favoured to win the next election, but if they fall short it is more likely to be the NDP than Liberals.  I get the impression people have decided they have had it with the Liberals as they have far less room for growth than the NDP.  Still opposition is very much up for grabs as Liberal vote is more spread out so at current numbers they would fall to third, but a 5 point increase would flip a lot of seats in their favour whereas a five point shift to the NDP would flip very few.  The NDP needs an 8-10 point jump before they start flipping a whole bunch of seats.

[mileslunn]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like 42-32-21?

If that happened it would still be PCs 82 seats so solid majority, but NDP at 38 seats, while Liberals to only 4 seats (thus lose official party status).  Below is the map I created.  Interestingly enough both Ford and Wynne lose their own seats (Ford's goes NDP, while Wynne's goes PC).  Only Liberal seats would be Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa Centre, and Ottawa-Vanier.

[mileslunn]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like

If that happened it would still be PCs 82 seats so solid majority, but NDP at 38 seats, while Liberals to only 4 seats (thus lose official party status).  Below is the map I created.  Interestingly enough both Ford and Wynne lose their own seats (Ford's goes NDP, while Wynne's goes PC).  Only Liberal seats would be Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa Centre, and Ottawa-Vanier.

I was wondering about this.  If Liberal support collapsed, would it go largely to the NDP in some historic Liberal ridings, and if so, could the NDP win those ridings.

Obviously at the top of my list were Toronto Centre, Toronto-St Paul's, Ottawa Centre (the NDP has won this riding at times federally and provincially) and Ottawa-Vanier.  Also, maybe based on 2014 results and ridings, Etobicoke-Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough-Guildwood and York Center. And finally, Kingston and the Islands (I know the NDP won there in 1990.)

I think Toronto-St. Paul's would go PC before NDP, it is sort of akin in BC to Vancouver-Quadra federally or provincial ridings like Vancouver-False Creek otherwise your wealthy progressives and I've generally found people making 6 figure salaries have no problem voting Liberal but voting NDP is a bridge too far.  If you compare the US vs. UK you see this too as very wealthy areas have no problem going Democrat, but you don't see them voting Labour in the UK and Democrats are more like the Liberals philosophically while Labour more like the NDP.

Toronto Centre and Ottawa Centre agree could go NDP if Liberals implode.  York Centre would probably go PC first and at the moment PCs favoured.  Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore would also probably go PC with current polling numbers but if Ford does something stupid and the PCs fall into the 30s while the Liberals implode then they become possible NDP pick ups.  Scarborough-Guildwood, the NDP did well federally in 2011 so possible, but also this area voted over 50% for Doug Ford as mayor so it is part of the so called Ford Nation.

[mileslunn]

Do you think Ontario is merely disgusted with just the Liberal party or is disgusted with all left wing parties in general?

both but more than former nonetheless polls do suggest a slight rightward drift. I also think the left did better when Harper was in power while with Trudeau in power there is some desire to balance things out.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet out with a new Ontario poll.  Seems their numbers are starting to converge with other polls so not sure a big shift happened, rather just moving into line with other polls as they seemed to have the PCs on the high side and NDP on the low side.

PC 44.9%
Lib 28.2%
NDP 21.3%
Green 4%

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet says their fieldwork was done April 16-18...why on earth would a polling company wait almost two weeks to release numbers in the midst of a super time sensitive de facto election campaign? I could understand staggering release dates on place like MB or SK where we are years from the next election but in Ontario in the current highly charged environment a poll goes stale within days of data being collected. 

Yeah it does seem a bit weird, mind I believe they have private polling so its quite possible the numbers today aren't that much different.  I suspect as usual they will release a poll on June 6th and that will ultimately be the one people use to judge whether they are accurate or not.

[mileslunn]

Nanos is now out with a CATI poll ( http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018-1150-OREA-Wave-2-Populated-Report-with-Tabs.pdf ).  Mostly on home ownership, but if you scroll down you will find it.  It was in the field from April 3rd to April 22nd so nothing new in dates.  Liberals a bit higher than other polls, PCs in line while NDP slightly lower.  I've found telephone polls tend to put Liberals higher while online NDP higher.  I am guessing probably due to telephone polls skewing older is the reason.

PC 42%
Lib 31%
NDP 21%
Green 5%

Also has vote consider and sort of in line with others

PC Consider 50%, not consider 36%
Lib Consider 41% Not Consider 46%
NDP Consider 42% Not Consider 42%
Green  Consider 28% Not Consider 57%

On Best Premier

Ford 32%
Howarth 21%
Wynne 17%

[mileslunn]

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

Dumb move and cannot see this helping him.  How much damage it will do is tough to say, but I suspect a lot will depend on how long this stays in the news cycle.  If it is forgotten by Friday the damage will be minimal, but if still in the news in a week's time could cost him a majority.  Also when it comes to lowering housing prices, densification not building in the greenbelt is the solution.  They just means more sprawl and longer commutes.  Los Angeles is a great example of urban sprawl and is not nearly as liveable a city as many European ones or even some American ones like San Francisco or New York City which have less sprawl.