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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 92632 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #150 on: January 23, 2018, 09:36:05 pm »

Speaking of Toronto...  I know we discussed this a lot around the time of the federal redistribution, but I spent some time starting at maps of west Toronto this evening, and it's going to be tough for the NDP to win either of the Trinity-Spadina successor ridings. It's almost as if they've been gerrymandered against the NDP (wasn't Olivia Chow in favour of this split?). I guess at the time it seemed as if the NDP could win both, but in most elections, I'd say they can win neither. A better split would've put Forest Hill and Rosedale together (to make a district for old money) and lump in the northern part of Trinity-Spadina with the southern part of Davenport to make a safer NDP seat. The rest of Davenport and St. Paul's could be called Oakwood or something.

Oh well, too late now. The NDP can always win back Davenport at least.

Agree both will probably go Liberal, but the NDP need to hope the PCs crack the 20% mark in both as any PC gains will come from the Liberals not NDP.  The PCs don't stand a chance at winning either but could play spoiler.  I used to live in Spadina-Fort York and its really the new condos that kill the NDP; once you get north of King Street they are still quite strong.  With University-Rosedale, it is Rosedale that kills them.  The good news is both sections of the riding (not the entire but just those two) are more centre-right than centre-left so if the PCs won most of the lakefront condo polls and most of the Rosedale polls, then the NDP will likely take the riding as the PCs will get slaughtered elsewhere and the Liberals will have a tough time finishing much ahead of the NDP elsewhere.

Looking at the 416 I see the following potential seat changes

NDP:

Definitely will hold Toronto-Danforth
Probably hold Parkdale-High Park
Davenport is most likely pick up, but York South-Weston and Beaches-East York look good.
Humber River-Black Creek, University-Rosedale, and Spadina-Fort York are more long shots but not impossible.
If the Liberals completely implode, then Toronto Centre, Etobicoke North and some of the Scarborough ones could come into play.

PCs

The most likely PC pick-ups I see are: York Centre, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley North, Willowdale, Scarborough-Agincourt, and Scarborough North (hold as they won by-election here).

Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Don Valley West, Don Valley East, and Scarborough Centre are long shots but if the PCs crack the 45% mark I could see those falling to them.

I don't think the PCs will win all of the above, but if they continue to maintain a 10 point lead and stay above 40% they should win at least a few of them.

In the 905 region

I think Oshawa (trying to hold it), Brampton East (also to hold), Brampton Centre, and Brampton North are the only realistic NDP wins unless they have a strong surge in the polls in which they will start winning in places you wouldn't expect.

For the PCs:

Low hanging fruit, otherwise pick up unless major screwup:

Milton, Burlington, Oakville North-Burlington, Newmarket-Aurora, Markham-Unionville, and Durham (off course hold Whitby, York-Simcoe and Thornhill too).

Likely pick-ups:

Oakville, King-Vaughan, Markham-Stouffville, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, and Pickering-Uxbridge

Swings:  If Forum and Mainstreet are correct they win these but if Campaign Research then fall short.

Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Streetsville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Brampton Centre, Brampton North, Brampton South, Richmond Hill, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Ajax, and Oshawa (lose under Forum, but win under Mainstreet).

Winneable but would probably fall short at the moment - These are the type if they cross the 45% line they can win, but not in the low 40s.

Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga-Malton, Brampton East, Brampton West, Markham-Thornhill
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adma
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« Reply #151 on: January 23, 2018, 11:03:14 pm »

For the ONDP, the Jagmeet Singh "spillover effect", or whether there is such a thing, is a *real* puzzle.  And if they wind up backsliding in Brampton relative to 2014 despite "their guy" in power federally, there's going to be plenty of soul-searching...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #152 on: January 24, 2018, 01:32:59 am »

For the ONDP, the Jagmeet Singh "spillover effect", or whether there is such a thing, is a *real* puzzle.  And if they wind up backsliding in Brampton relative to 2014 despite "their guy" in power federally, there's going to be plenty of soul-searching...

True enough.  Also there is the issue of vote splits as the NDP could win enough votes to split the vote in Brampton, but not enough to win as Brown will likely do better than Hudak here.  He has much better ties with the Indo-Canadian community than Hudak ever did.  Probably won't get over 45% in any Brampton riding and actually good chance he will get under 40% in which case if say the PCs get 37-38% in Brampton and the NDP only get in the teens, Liberals will hold them, but if the NDP gets around 25%, then likely a PC pick up.
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« Reply #153 on: January 24, 2018, 06:11:54 am »

I see there are articles about whether the Ontario Liberal government will release an early budget before the election.  You might have thought that the normal release time of the budget was something the Ontario Liberals would have thought about before setting the fixed election date.
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« Reply #154 on: January 24, 2018, 09:58:25 am »

For the ONDP, the Jagmeet Singh "spillover effect", or whether there is such a thing, is a *real* puzzle.  And if they wind up backsliding in Brampton relative to 2014 despite "their guy" in power federally, there's going to be plenty of soul-searching...

It all depends on the candidates. The NDP have only nominated one candidate in the three 'winnable' Brampton seats, Sara Singh in Brampton North. Not sure how strong she is.

The two strongest candidate possibilities in the region are Harkirat Singh (public school trustee) and Gurpreet Dhillon (city councillor). Dhillon was the NDP candidate in Brampton-Springdale in 2014.
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« Reply #155 on: January 24, 2018, 04:09:08 pm »

There is also Jagmeet Singh's brother and closest confidante...I wouldnt be surprised if he ran for the NDP in Brampton East
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« Reply #156 on: January 24, 2018, 09:21:41 pm »

Brown is holding a news conference in 25 minutes to deny allegations of sexual misconduct from 2 women dating back to his Ottawa days. No way can Tories hold an emergency convention & fix the party's image in 4 months...
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« Reply #157 on: January 24, 2018, 09:38:52 pm »


Couldn't caucus agree on one person. Yes this is bad news for them but let's see what happens. Surprised this didn't come out earlier, but mind you with the #metoo movement lots is coming out now.
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« Reply #158 on: January 24, 2018, 10:03:10 pm »

I'm surprised some of the other stuff that's happened in Ottawa (with other leaders) still hasn't been revealed (alleged / from what I've heard).

Looking at this politically, surely will hurt Brown.  Who knows if the party will survive this.  Doesn't body well for the NDP in Toronto (where would-be PC voters will go back to the Liberals), but helps their chances in the South West/North.  This may have been exactly what Kathleen Wynne needed, as sad as that is.
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« Reply #159 on: January 24, 2018, 10:08:08 pm »

He's done, since one of the allegations is sexual assault. Other is oral sex on an intern.
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« Reply #160 on: January 24, 2018, 10:16:39 pm »

Doesn't surprise me, of course. I have mentioned before the stories I've heard about him.
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« Reply #161 on: January 24, 2018, 10:17:18 pm »

There's probably more coming.
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« Reply #162 on: January 24, 2018, 10:17:21 pm »

Agree he is done, but I still think the PCs could pull off a win if they can get a new leader.  Tough but not impossible.  It will do some damage but if he resigns in the next few weeks it will be old news by the election campaign.  With four campaign managers already resigning and still having not face the caucus, I don't see how he can stay on as PC leader.  He may want to but when the next batch of polls come out and show him falling, that will be it.  Yes these may be false but false or not, one should get it cleared in the court of law before running.  Due to how close the election is not enough time for this.

If the caucus were smart they would tell him in no uncertain terms they will resign en masse from the party if he doesn't quit (this how the BC Liberals got rid of Gordon Campbell back in 2010).  If he quits, I would recommend they appoint either Lisa McLeod or Vic Fedelli as leader.  Both are moderate and capable.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #163 on: January 24, 2018, 10:20:07 pm »

How likely do you think it is this will be so damaging he has no choice but to resign.  If he is leading the party over an abyss I cannot see how he can stay on.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #164 on: January 24, 2018, 11:11:27 pm »

At this point I am pretty confidence Brown will not lead the party into the election come June, any bets on whom it will be.  Some may say Christine Elliott but she is not in caucus.  My bets are either Vic Fidelli or Lisa McLeod will be the PC leader come June.  Any thoughts?
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« Reply #165 on: January 24, 2018, 11:15:41 pm »

At this point I am pretty confidence Brown will not lead the party into the election come June, any bets on whom it will be.  Some may say Christine Elliott but she is not in caucus.  My bets are either Vic Fidelli or Lisa McLeod will be the PC leader come June.  Any thoughts?

So, a racist or an homophobe?
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« Reply #166 on: January 24, 2018, 11:38:35 pm »

A snap leadership election will probably be best for the Tories, as they are less likely to have a terrible candidate spend a long time campaigning to terrible social conservative groups and end up defeating a moderate establishment candidate.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #167 on: January 24, 2018, 11:42:10 pm »

A snap leadership election will probably be best for the Tories, as they are less likely to have a terrible candidate spend a long time campaigning to terrible social conservative groups and end up defeating a moderate establishment candidate.

I actually think much like when Ignatieff was chosen (note there was a real fear the government could fall) caucus will agree on one candidate so unless someone outside caucus steps up there won't be a convention.  While this won't happen Wynne could as an olive branch agree to push the election date back to October if Brown resigns so they can choose a new leader but that is probably more wishful thinking than realistic.
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« Reply #168 on: January 24, 2018, 11:43:06 pm »

One acquaintance of mine (who ran for school trustee in Toronto a few years ago) described Brown as "without hyperbole, the creepiest person I’ve ever met."
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« Reply #169 on: January 25, 2018, 12:15:51 am »

At this point I am pretty confidence Brown will not lead the party into the election come June, any bets on whom it will be.  Some may say Christine Elliott but she is not in caucus.  My bets are either Vic Fidelli or Lisa McLeod will be the PC leader come June.  Any thoughts?

Kellie Leitch obviously!
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« Reply #170 on: January 25, 2018, 12:27:00 am »

Now is the NDP's chance!

Maybe.

Nah...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #171 on: January 25, 2018, 12:43:11 am »

At this point I am pretty confidence Brown will not lead the party into the election come June, any bets on whom it will be.  Some may say Christine Elliott but she is not in caucus.  My bets are either Vic Fidelli or Lisa McLeod will be the PC leader come June.  Any thoughts?

Kellie Leitch obviously!

Your joking, not a chance.  Pretty sure it will be someone inside the caucus.
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« Reply #172 on: January 25, 2018, 01:04:29 am »

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

2. PC voters tend to absolutely LOATH Kathleen Wynne and polling data i have seen says that by about a 3-1 margin they have the NDP as their second choice not the Liberals...this could actually be a good opportunity for Andrea Horwath
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« Reply #173 on: January 25, 2018, 01:51:32 am »

Do you think Kathleen Wynne would be tempted to call a snap election in hope that the controversies around Brown and before the PC potently get a new leader.   
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« Reply #174 on: January 25, 2018, 01:53:37 am »

Brown has resigned as leader will stay on as MPP
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/news/queenspark/2018/01/24/tory-leader-patrick-brown-denies-allegations-of-misconduct.html
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