Ontario 2018 election

[mileslunn]

This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

Dumb move and cannot see this helping him.  How much damage it will do is tough to say, but I suspect a lot will depend on how long this stays in the news cycle.  If it is forgotten by Friday the damage will be minimal, but if still in the news in a week's time could cost him a majority.  Also when it comes to lowering housing prices, densification not building in the greenbelt is the solution.  They just means more sprawl and longer commutes.  Los Angeles is a great example of urban sprawl and is not nearly as liveable a city as many European ones or even some American ones like San Francisco or New York City which have less sprawl.

You just listed reasons why it's bad policy, not why it's bad politics. Bad policy and popularity are not mutually exclusive. Is this an untouchable issue or something?

The Greenbelt is extremely popular so I am not sure how it will benefit the Tories in any way shape or form.  Might not be the number one policy so people may still vote them in spite of this, but I cannot see it helping them.  Whether it costs them their majority or not is a whole different story and I suspect it will depend on how long it remains in the news.  The longer it stays in the news the more damaging, the quicker the channel is changed the less damaging.

[mileslunn]

The issue on the greenbelt is closed as Ford has now promised to not to touch it.  Yes it is a flip flop and looks bad, but would have been worse to let the issue continue to dominate the headlines.  His biggest risk is he cannot afford too many other flip flops.  One or two will not kill a campaign especially 37 days out, but multiple ones will.

[mileslunn]

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Giorgio Mammoliti.

you don't think he voted for himself in 1990?

There were lots who voted NDP in 1990 who will be voting for Ford in 2018, I think this was more a reference to those who voted NDP in 1995 and will vote for Ford in 2018 which there are far fewer of.  Giorgio Mammoliti is off course one example.

[mileslunn]

Given my disdain for these sorts of questions (though I now get the point more) I thought of this as a joke, but there might be something to it:

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

Actually probably more than some think as people do tend to become more conservative as they age.  Generally speaking each election (except for wave ones) more people move from left wing to right wing parties than the other away around.  The reason the right doesn't gain is of those who die in between elections, they are more likely to be conservative voters than the general population, while amongst first time voters, they are far more likely to go for progressive voters.  In 2008 Obama and McCain tied amongst those who voted in 2004, it was those who didn't vote in 2004 that swung significantly behind Obama and thus his big win.  Same in the UK as there were many Blair-May voters in 2017, but few Tory 90s-Corbyn voters.  Corbyn only did as well as Blair in popular vote due to winning big amongst those who couldn't vote during the Blair era as well as Tory voters from the 90s were more likely to have died between then and 2017 than Labour voters.  Heck even in Canada, Harper didn't lose that many votes, Trudeau won primarily by overwhelmingly picking up those who didn't vote in 2011 but did in 2015.

So in summary lots of these but not because Ford has any crossover appeal, but simply because people become more conservative as they age.  On the other hand, there are probably more Harris voters from 1995 percentage wise who have died since then than Rae voters.  And likewise amongst those not old enough to vote in 1995, NDP will do better than amongst those who were while PCs will do worse. 

[mileslunn]

Yeah, I thought that theory had been debunked.

Personally, I've gotten much more left wing with age.

I think it varies with person, just saying in general.  If this didn't happen conservative parties would be in major trouble when you consider there are very few elections they win the 18-30 cohort. 

I think the major reason is more economics actually.  When one goes to college or university and graduates with a lot of debt, the left is generally quite appealing.  But once one gets married, has a stable job and starts paying taxes, buys a home, and has children their outlook changes.  In particular often renters are more left wing than home owners so the age when someone buys a home tends to change things.  I've also noticed the gender gap is much bigger with those who are not married than are married so I wonder if amongst females some become more conservative due to influence of the husband.  Off course the opposite can happen too, but seems the former is more common.  Usually people's earnings tend to peak around 55 so at least when it comes to fiscal conservativism, I think people in their 50s not seniors are the most fiscally conservative.

On social issues, as one ages they are more entrenched in their views thus less open to change as opposed to when one is younger so as mentioned each generation being more socially liberal is part of it.  Too conservatives rarely talk about rolling back the clock, just opposed any further social progress thus someone who maybe favoured social changes in the past, might find today's too much as when young your views are less entrenched so one is more open to change but this decreases as one ages.

Certainly it's not as extreme as say in the UK where the age gap is quite large.  In the US, the age gap is actually more due to racial breakdown as amongst seniors, only 15% are non-white whereas amongst millennials 40% are non-white so if you look at changes as people age by race, people do get more conservative as they age but the gap is much smaller than what it looks at first.  In Continental Europe it seems younger voters are more going to non-traditional parties while older voters favour more established ones so whether that favours left or right depends on whose running where.  In Eastern Europe ironically, parties on the left are strongest amongst older voters while younger voters tend to be the most right wing so sort of the opposite.

[mileslunn]

I definitely know of a lot of Robarts/Davis-era Tories who migrated to the Liberals or beyond once their party (or federally speaking, its successor) swung rightward...

That's true but less to do with them becoming less right wing and more how much their parties swung to the right. In Atlantic Canada where they haven't swung to the right you would see less of this.

[mileslunn]

I think it depends on country.  In the US the age divide is more due to racial breakdown as younger Americans are much less white than older Americans.  Canada it certainly does exist federally and also in some provinces such as BC and Alberta.  I find its more noticeable in the Western provinces than Eastern ones so could be a generational change as many have suggested Alberta in 20 years from now will be a lot more favourable to progressive parties than it is now.  BC could be more due to the fact older voters remember the NDP from the 90s and in same cases even the Barrett government whereas few millennials do. 

Where it is really strong is the UK and in Canada it is nowhere nearly as strong as the UK.  Conservatives don't do as poorly amongst millennials as they do in the UK, but don't dominate seniors to the same degree either.

[mileslunn]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/tanya-granic-allen-no-longer-an-ontario-pc-party-candidate-doug-ford-says-1.4650360

Tanya Granic Allen will no longer be a PC party candidate. She was previously running in Mississauga Centre.

Probably a smart move.  She was pretty nutty and extreme so her being on the ballot would just hurt the PCs.  The types who support her will probably vote PC anyways and if they decide not to, there aren't as many hardcore social conservatives as some think.  True many in the ethnic community are socially conservative, but it rarely seems to play a big role in how they vote.  Never mind amongst children of immigrants, I've found most are quite socially liberal so the stereotype is more that than necessarily the reality.  Just because one comes from a socially conservative country where such views are the norm doesn't mean they will hold them. 

[mileslunn]

Tomorrow is the first debate.  Rarely do debates change much, usually just re-enforce what people already think, but occasionally they do.  This can help give momentum or stop for a certain party.  That being said the election is still 31 days away and there is another election so plenty of time to recover from a lousy debate.  Think Obama's first debate in 2012 was a lousy one but did better in the subsequent two thus why he was able to win.  My thoughts on each are as follows:

Doug Ford: He just needs to come out unscathed.  His biggest problem is he has a short temper and its easy for people to get under his skin so he needs to not come across as too aggressive which could especially hurt him with female voters.  Also he should brush up on his knowledge of things as both Wynne and Horwath no their facts well so being caught in a lie or giving false information doesn't help.  The good news for Ford is people have low expectations of him so he wins by not losing.

Kathleen Wynne:  She needs to do two things: 1. attack Ford hard and portray him as too risky, while ignore Andrea Horwath so as to make her the one people need to vote for if they want to stop Ford.

Andrea Horwath: She needs to be positive but also go after Ford will ignore Wynne.  She needs to make the case that for those wanting change, she is the better one to deliver the change people want.  Otherwise she needs to find a way to connect with both change voters (who are mostly supporting Doug Ford) and progressives who want to stop Ford (which are equally split between Wynne and her).

Also Abacus will be coming out with a poll.  A sneek peak shows most don't want the greenbelt tampered with including PC supporters.  Although tough to figure out the horserace numbers, doing some number crunching might allow one to guess where the PCs are.

Of all voters, 66% oppose development, 19% support, and 15% don't care.  Of PC voters it is 53% oppose, 29% support, and 18% don't care.  Amongst OLP/NDP voters it is 74% oppose, 17 support, and 9% don't care.  Don't show undecided so looking at the support numbers that would suggest PCs have fallen a bit, looking at just support numbers suggest they are probably not too far off where they were last time maybe a bit lower, while looking at don't care would suggest a bigger PC lead that is why it would be nice to know what undecided voters think although I kind of think the don't care is higher amongst undecided voters than decided.

[mileslunn]

Abacus Data will be out around 3:00 PM this afternoon so interesting to see if they confirm the NDP momentum or not as this is Pollara's first poll.  Also don't have the crosstabs yet but I suspect they will have that later as it will be interesting to see the demographic and regional breakdown.

[mileslunn]

I think the one consensus we do get from polls is PCs are clearly in the lead and have the most resilent base, but Ford is quite polarizing and party has little room for growth (although they just need to hold what they have now anyways) while Ford is seen as the best manager on economic issues.  NDP is in second or third, a lot don't have an opinion on Horwath and they have by far the most room for growth although their ceiling is slightly lower than the PCs but higher than the Liberals.  On social issues the NDP is seen as the best party to deal with them thus ballot question could matter.  Also clearly in second in Southwestern Ontario while in first or second in Northern Ontario.  Struggle in 905 belt and Eastern Ontario however which have always been weak spots.  Liberals have the lowest ceiling, highly unpopular and little going for them as well as a strong desire for change.  Still competitive in the 416 but trailing everywhere else.  Both NDP and Liberals will need a strong millennial turnout to win whereas PCs don't and in fact would do better if there is a poor millennial turnout.

[mileslunn]

Poll shocker from the usually Liberal friendly Pollara

PCs 40%
NDP 30%
OLP 23%

And th poll notes that most of the remaining Liberals would vote NDP if it was clear that Horwath had the best chance of stopping Ford

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-welcome-to-third-place-liberals/

What also has to be encouraging for the NDP is second choices:
NDP - 33%
Undecided - 25%
Green - 16%
PC - 11%
OLP - 11%
Another - 5%

This has to be worrisome for both the PCs and Liberals; the PC are basically at their ceiling of 40-45%, with very little room as they are really no ones second choice. The Liberals, if they are stuck at 20-25%, is basically their ceiling as well. The NDP is so far the second choice of a third of voters, AND with undecideds being the next largest group at a quarter, still could have potential for room to grow.
Also bad for the Liberals if the NDP is at 30%:
"... Liberal supporters who want to block Ford were asked: “And, during the campaign, if it looked like Andrea Horwath and the NDP had the best chance of stopping Doug Ford and the PCs from winning the election, how likely are you to switch your vote to Andrea Horwath and the NDP?” Fully 78 per cent of those Liberal supporters who are motivated by a desire to stop Ford said they’d probably switch their vote to the NDP in such a scenario, against only 22 per cent who said they probably wouldn’t."

Well of course people who want to stop Ford are willing to vote strategically The real question is what % of Liberals are seriously concerned about stopping him. I imagine it's a lot (most?) of them but the % makes a big difference.

Lastly I think a certain amount of skepticism is a good idea for these strategic voting questions. The Liberals aren't going to drop to the single digits like that result would imply.

While you can never say never, I cannot see the Liberals falling below high teens which you consider how resilient their base is in Toronto and Ottawa.  As for NDP, I would not be the least bit surprised if they get over 30%.  Cracking the 40% mark will be challenging and I doubt that will happen but if the PCs mess up, I think an NDP win would be something along these lines: 38% NDP, 36% PC, 21% Liberal.  Certainly won't be a Bob Rae type landslide as the PCs are much stronger than they were in 1990 or even a Notley type win as you had a perfect split on the right, but a win similar to Glen Clark in 1996 or Roy Romanow in 1999 in terms of size seems plausible albeit still unlikely at this point.

[mileslunn]

Abacus is out and does show the NDP gaining much like Pollara although more the PCs slipping than Liberals as Liberal vote is steady while it appears the PCs have taken a hit, probably over greenbelt saga.  Obviously over the next week will be interesting to watch but I think the NDP has some momentum, but their big problem is even in Abacus their support is mostly amongst younger voters, amongst older voters Liberals still in second place.

PC 35%
Liberal 29%
NDP 29%

Definitely bad numbers for the PCs, but we saw this earlier with Forum so will be interesting if these hold or do they recover.  Ford seems to have a rock solid base, but limited room to growth.  NDP gains were mostly from undecided voters, not PC or Liberal.  Also included a fresh sample from a different panel which seems more favourable to the Liberals but still good news for the NDP

PC 34%
Liberal 30%
NDP 26%

Seems the Greenbelt thing which was during both polls has likely hurt Ford thus why his numbers have fallen.  Also explains the firing of Granic Allen and a few flip flops like safe injection sites, otherwise trying to put out fires before they fester.

[mileslunn]

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

That makes sense.  When is Ekos coming out next?

The regionals for Toronto and 905 sound about right, however I have a tough time PCs being at only 32% in Eastern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario considering how strong they are in rural ridings.  Likewise some others have put them close to the 50% mark or slightly over in those areas (doubt they are over 50% so best to take the average).

[mileslunn]

It should come as no surprise that the (opt-in) online pollsters are showing the most disparate results.

I'm not so sure about that...two weeks ago both Forum and Mainstreet released IVR polls done at exactly the same time...Forum had the NDP at 27% and the Liberals at 21% and Mainstreet had the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 21%...that is even more of a difference than we see in these two online polls.

If you look at Forum's raw numbers they have consistently shown the NDP in third, its when the weight them they jump to second. 

Raw numbers are PC 528, Liberal 245, and NDP 219 so those are not too far off other IVR polls.

[mileslunn]

Everybody weights...we don't know what Mainstreets "raw numbers" are since they don't publish them...all IVR polls tend to massively oversample older people and undersample younger people so you HAVE to weight. I would be shocked if Mainstreet didnt also demographically weight their data

True enough and I think a big thing will be do millennials show up or not.  IVR oversamples old people but then they are more likely to vote too.  Last time around most online polls overestimated NDP support while most IVR underestimated.  IVR had them around only 20% while online were around 26% and they ended up at 23%.

[mileslunn]

More details on Pollara  http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-poll-doug-fords-lingering-advantage/ .  Actually it seems Horwath's strong numbers are largely due to a 32 point lead in Hamilton-Niagara (probably due to small sample), mind you PCs are at 38% in Toronto and 49% in Ottawa which seem on the high side.  Big gender gap, no surprise.  Amongst immigrants and children of immigrants PCs are ahead, but amongst visible minorities Liberals lead (NDP in third amongst all three so hurts them in the GTA).  That would suggest either PC support amongst immigrants is mostly white immigrants like Polish, Italians, Portuguese and perhaps some less noticeable like Germans and British or they lead amongst visible minorities born abroad, but are doing poorly amongst those born in Canada (I've noticed visible minorities born in Canada due to tend to be a lot more progressive than parents).  Mainstreet will have a GTA poll on the debate, not sure if they will have horserace numbers tomorrow.

[mileslunn]

Quito Maggi of mainstreet has tweeted out the post debate poll.  Looks like Horwath won amongst old city viewers while Ford amongst Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough.  It appears Wynne underperformed in the debate relative to her vote intention, Horwath overperformed while Ford held onto his own (which is all he needed to do).  Will be interesting what the next batch of polls say.  Also interesting if things are tightening or was Ford's stupid greenbelt comments what caused a blip.  Either way if you are a Liberal its pretty tough to feel optimistic about things at the moment.

[mileslunn]

According to Mainstreet, Ford won the debate (35.1%, vs Horwath's 24.3% and Wynne's 19.3%).
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-wins-the-debate-according-to-torontonians/
But what's *really* interesting, though given no play at all, is that they threw a voting-intention question into it, and the PCs are at 36.6% to the Libs' 31.1% and the NDP's 23.1%. Remember: the last Mainstreet poll went 44.9-28.2-21.3; and before that 50-24-18. Maybe a different *kind* of sample, but...

The previous poll was the whole province, this is just the 416 so actually the PCs were slightly lower in the last poll in the 416.  If the PCs are north of 40% in Etobicoke, Scarborough, and North York, they would be well on their way to a majority with those numbers.  Off course the election is still 30 days away so a lot can happen between now and then.

[mileslunn]

Ipsos is out showing PCs well in front, NDP narrowly in second, while Liberals in third.  More bad news for Liberals

PC 40%
NDP 29%
Liberals 26%

[mileslunn]

A couple more points:

1) I agree with the consensus that Horwath won and Ford lost. I will add that Wynne lost in the sense of coming off as a desperate incumbent and failing to steal any thunder from Horwath, which she needs to do to avoid total disaster.

2) Re Allen: There is a lot of tension between conservative parties and the socon movement right now. Socons are too unpopular to embrace but too important to the conservative winning coalition to disavow entirely. Thats not to say we're on the brink of a realignment but I'm hearing grumbling about the Tories that I wasn't hearing five years ago. Something has to give eventually, although Im not quite sure what that "something" will be.

I suspect if there is a switch to PR anywhere you will see the two split into separate parties and ironically under PR it would help not hurt them.  I oppose PR myself, but there seems to be a strong push for it so wouldn't be surprised if one province goes to it.  If it is a disaster it will sort itself out as they will realize they have no choice.  In addition there is also demographic churn to so as older voters die off and new ones become of age that will diminish their clout.  As for recent immigrants, that is greatly overplayed.  Many maybe social conservatives, but its rarely a major driving issue in how they vote as most understand when they move to Canada it is a more socially liberal country so no real interest in trying to change it.  Never mind the fact a lot of the loudest socons are often racist too scares a lot of them away.

[mileslunn]

The PC crowd outside the debate hall was in fact paid actors.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-debate-protesters-1.4653301

Not sure if everyone were, but definitely some were and based on the timeframe also below minimum wage too (no that isn't illegal as they are contractors not employees, but still bad optics).  I don't believe Ford planned this, it looks like it was Meredith Cartwright who did (ironically she the Liberal candidate who lost the nomination to Bob Rae back in 2007), but incredibly stupid.  All parties have candidates who do stupid things so one or two won't sink a party, but if it happens often enough and more importantly it is the same party that has all the candidates doing stupid things it can cause damage.

Also whomever's idea this was is incredibly stupid.  Anybody who knows anything about the acting community knows that not many of them likely support the PCs so this was almost certain to get leaked.  In fact I am surprised some agreed to it.  You would have to pay me more than the campaign spending limits to get me to be an actor for a particular party especially one I didn't support.

[mileslunn]

Here are mine, so moderate as well but closest to PCs although more centrist, which is what I thought.  https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/results/?s=5aec859355b2934ddf834be5ac454309d5581c851525883429

[mileslunn]

While the poll out today is Forum so I always take them with a grain of salt they are good at picking up trends.  Clearly the NDP has the momentum.  Would be interesting if Nanos, Ekos, Innovative, and Mainstreet come out with an Ontario poll as they've always showed the NDP much lower than the one's reporting so far so will they show the NDP pulling ahead or Liberals still in second.  If you are a Liberal this is a disaster and I don't know how they can recover.  For the PCs somewhat bad news but as long as they stay north of 40% they will be fine as well as if you look at age breakdowns its really millennials where the NDP is doing well amongst and PCs still ahead amongst other age groups.  Also all of them seem to show a strong gender gap with NDP tied or ahead amongst female voters, but amongst male voters PCs still well ahead close to 50%.  I think Ford's style is a turnoff to women voters thus why you get a large gender gap.

[mileslunn]

Ford has promised a 20% tax cut for the middle class so it looks like to date the PCs are more or less keeping the people's guarantee sans carbon tax.  Will be interesting to see the whole costed platform as there is a $6 billion hole although perhaps they don't plan on balancing the budget as soon would be my guess.

Ford said it would be implemented in the second or third year.  While this doesn't help those who need it most, this is the exact same income group Trudeau gave a tax cut too so if it worked for Trudeau why not try it although to be fair Trudeau raised taxes on the rich, but for the PCs that is not an option.