Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

Perhaps the recent Mainstreet poll of that riding tipped him off?

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

I haven't seen the polling, I wish, but pay-wall. This is my general impression of what I am hearing, updates on social media from the area.
Also, it's really the next most likely target after SSM in my opinion. You could probably flip a coin between Nipissing and Parry South-Muskoka over which one would go NDP.

Well, Nipissing is actually a majority urban riding (North Bay), so the NDP would definitely have a shot if Fideli wasn't so popular.

Parry Sound-Muskoka is very WASPy/ Old school conservative (but also very rural/small town), so could be a riding turned off of Fordism, but the NDP has no history there. The riding does have a lot of granola hippie types too that typically vote Green, but who might vote NDP this time.  Still though, the NDP has a better shot at Nipissing.

I will add, only as a clarification, the NDP won relatively strongly (40%) Muskoka-Georgian Bay in 1990 but lost, badly, in Parry Sound (4th after the greens).

[DL]

So the latest Ekos is out and has it about tied NDP 38.4, PCs 37.9 and Liberals 19.1%...The EKOS polls always have kinda skimpy sample sizes by IVR standards (e.g. n of 1,000 over three days while Mainstreet has n of 2,400)...the marginal cost of adding sample in an IVR poll is so low i wonder why they don't do more

The trendlines in that EKOS poll, over the past two days, are interesting:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/race-deadlocked/

Numbers always bounce around from night to night...last Wednesday Ekos had a 10 point NDP lead and then after Thursday's results were added it was back to a dead heat...then it looks like the same has happened over the past few days.

[Tintrlvr]

So the latest Ekos is out and has it about tied NDP 38.4, PCs 37.9 and Liberals 19.1%...The EKOS polls always have kinda skimpy sample sizes by IVR standards (e.g. n of 1,000 over three days while Mainstreet has n of 2,400)...the marginal cost of adding sample in an IVR poll is so low i wonder why they don't do more

Weirdly, EKOS's report on the poll indicates that they had a poll out around a couple of days ago that showed the NDP at around 41 to the PCs around 37 and the Liberals around 17 (hard to tell exactly) such that this poll actually represents a drop for the NDP and an increase for the PCs and Liberals, but I can't find any record of that poll on their website or anywhere else. Compared to their last public poll, it's an increase for both the NDP and the PCs and a drop for the Liberals, with basically the same gap between the NDP and the PCs (PCs gained a relative 0.2 points).

Showing basically zero age gap is also weird.

[Hatman 🍁]

So the latest Ekos is out and has it about tied NDP 38.4, PCs 37.9 and Liberals 19.1%...The EKOS polls always have kinda skimpy sample sizes by IVR standards (e.g. n of 1,000 over three days while Mainstreet has n of 2,400)...the marginal cost of adding sample in an IVR poll is so low i wonder why they don't do more

Weirdly, EKOS's report on the poll indicates that they had a poll out around a couple of days ago that showed the NDP at around 41 to the PCs around 37 and the Liberals around 17 (hard to tell exactly) such that this poll actually represents a drop for the NDP and an increase for the PCs and Liberals, but I can't find any record of that poll on their website or anywhere else. Compared to their last public poll, it's an increase for both the NDP and the PCs and a drop for the Liberals, with basically the same gap between the NDP and the PCs (PCs gained a relative 0.2 points).

Showing basically zero age gap is also weird.

Might be our unreleased numbers from Saturday.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Toronto numbers are encouraging for the NDP.  If they're not leading comfortably in the province's largest city it's really hard to see a path to victory for them.  Still depending on how the vote goes, Ford could deny them a few seats that they'd be winning in Scarborough (and of course he almost certainly will in Etobicoke North!) if the PCs had a more "generic" leader.

SW Ontario is proving to be competitive between the PCs and NDP.  So it looks like they'll be splitting the region in terms of seats, with the NDP dominating the cities.

Yup, very positive for the NDP: looking at 2014, the PCs vote is only up (based on polls) by 5% 23%-28%, That can't be enough to take many seats; with the NDP at around 40% seats like Don Valley East are effectively in play since the PC/OLP are splitting the vote enough for the NDP to squeak in 35% or so. But I'm more inclined to say Willowdale and Don Valley North, are going PC, with the NDP/OLP splitting the vote enough.
Etobicoke is hard to say, we don't know what the Ford personal effect is, I hear he is in a very tough fight in Etobicoke North, and sans Ford this seat would be more comfortably in the NDP column.

In the SW (excluding SC the Hamilton-Niagara area) The NDP still need the PCs to drop about 3-5% more to pick up those rural seats similar to 1990; but KWGC metro area is looking really good for the NDP to sweep up OLP seats and PC seats.

If the OLP wins seats up North, it would only be Thunder Bay. But Angus and Mainstreet have the OLP polling at 9% and 12% in the North... I think the TB riding's are lost at this point to the NDP. I'm watching Sault.Ste.Marie and Nipissing to see if the NDP can pick both up from the PCs...

What makes you think that Fedeli would even come close to losing Nipissing, in the current political climate?  If the PC forms government, he is guaranteed a top position there, and he has cross party appeal in North Bay.

Perhaps the recent Mainstreet poll of that riding tipped him off?

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

I haven't seen the polling, I wish, but pay-wall. This is my general impression of what I am hearing, updates on social media from the area.
Also, it's really the next most likely target after SSM in my opinion. You could probably flip a coin between Nipissing and Parry South-Muskoka over which one would go NDP.

Well, Nipissing is actually a majority urban riding (North Bay), so the NDP would definitely have a shot if Fideli wasn't so popular.

Parry Sound-Muskoka is very WASPy/ Old school conservative (but also very rural/small town), so could be a riding turned off of Fordism, but the NDP has no history there. The riding does have a lot of granola hippie types too that typically vote Green, but who might vote NDP this time.  Still though, the NDP has a better shot at Nipissing.

I will add, only as a clarification, the NDP won relatively strongly (40%) Muskoka-Georgian Bay in 1990 but lost, badly, in Parry Sound (4th after the greens).

Yeah, Parry Sound is more WASPy and Muskoka is more Granola-y, so there you go.

[PeteB]

An interesting (if thoroughly unscientific) opinion about the state of the race in the riding of  Peterborough-Kawartha, from CBC reporters who interviewed voters there:

When our news crew spent the day in Peterborough-Kawartha, it was overwhelmingly obvious this is a two-horse race between Progressive Conservative candidate Dave Smith and the NDP's Sean Conway.

Not one voter we interviewed said they would vote Liberal, and that included several people who said they voted Liberal in the last few elections (the Libs have held Peterborough since 2003, when they first formed government).

Sampling the population and judging by lawn signs on private property, it's hard to say who had the edge between the PCs and the New Democrats, but it's clear it's down to them.

[PeteB]

Can the Liberals yet recover, in spite of the dismal polls and ratings; Enzo Dimatteo in NOW seems to think that there is some faint hope:

Ontario Election 2018: It's a Wynne-lose situation
https://nowtoronto.com/news/ontario-election-2018-kathleen-wynne/

[PeteB]

The Liberals are going to lose every riding in the 905, Peel, Durham and York. I can't see any seat they'd win?. My only prediction was Sousa in Mississauga-Lakeshore, but sounds like he's trailing.

I think the only people who are voting "Del Duca for Liberal leader" are the diehard Liberal partisans.

Not a Liberal partisan but am predicting that, assuming the Liberals are higher than 22% provincially, Del Duca retains his seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

An interesting (if thoroughly unscientific) opinion about the state of the race in the riding of  Peterborough-Kawartha, from CBC reporters who interviewed voters there:

When our news crew spent the day in Peterborough-Kawartha, it was overwhelmingly obvious this is a two-horse race between Progressive Conservative candidate Dave Smith and the NDP's Sean Conway.

Not one voter we interviewed said they would vote Liberal, and that included several people who said they voted Liberal in the last few elections (the Libs have held Peterborough since 2003, when they first formed government).

Sampling the population and judging by lawn signs on private property, it's hard to say who had the edge between the PCs and the New Democrats, but it's clear it's down to them.

If you count the PCs as having won the 1985 election, Peterborough (and Ajax/Pickering/Durham West) is the most bellwetherly riding in Ontario, having voted for the winner since 1977.

If you count the Liberals as having won the 1985 election, then Scarborough-Guildwood is the most bellwetherly riding, having gone for the winner since 1971.

[mileslunn]

Just looking at our numbers now. I'm not going to give the topline, but since we probably won't have regional #s out, I can say the NDP have a decent lead in Toronto. They're up 50-24 in central (Liberals in third!) and down 38-40 in the outer region. (margin of error for both regions is around 9).

Are you able to release the full regional breakdowns.  I realize they have high margins of error but still would be interesting nonetheless.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, Parry Sound is more WASPy and Muskoka is more Granola-y, so there you go.

Surely the latter are mostly the former in Ontario?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Parry Sound is more WASPy and Muskoka is more Granola-y, so there you go.

Surely the latter are mostly the former in Ontario?

Muskoka has more WASPs than Granola types yes, but that wasn't the point of my overgeneralization.

[Pericles]

It's annoying seeing the pundits with their crappy "everyone sucks" takes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet's riding polls are boring and predictable at this point.

[Hifly]

Is anyone kindly able to post a summary of all the Mainstreet riding polls?

[DL]

Mainstreet's riding polls are boring and predictable at this point.

Any theory as to why they seem to be starting with some relatively boring seats? Most of the ridings they have pollsed so far seem to be pretty rural or exurban seats where you would expect a big PC edge...apart from Toronto Centre they have not touched any ridings that would be considered NDP/Liberal battles.

That being said, if i look at the glass as being half full I wonder what to make of how they have the NDP surprisingly competitive in some bedrock PC seats like York-Simcoe or Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound?

[DC Al Fine]

It's annoying seeing the pundits with their crappy "everyone sucks" takes.

"Why can't every one be fiscally conservative but socially liberal (like me lol)?"

Is such an overdone take. I wouldn't even mind all the "everyone sucks" takes if they weren't so bloody uniform. Where are the socons boycotting the godless major parties or the hard leftists upset at NDP backsliding? Those columns would spice up the Globe and Mail.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet's riding polls are boring and predictable at this point.

That being said, if i look at the glass as being half full I wonder what to make of how they have the NDP surprisingly competitive in some bedrock PC seats like York-Simcoe or Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound?

Perhaps income has to do with it. I remember the Greens once targeted Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, losing it by 13 points in 2007.

[King of Kensington]

Today's polls for Brampton Centre and Malton are very disappointing from an NDP point of view.  They haven't really moved from 2014.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh shoot, I missed the Brampton Centre poll. Yeah, that is disappointing.

[PeteB]

Today's polls for Brampton Centre and Malton are very disappointing from an NDP point of view.  They haven't really moved from 2014.

So who is leading there - PC or Liberals?

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyway, try as they may to weight visible minorities, I'm sure Mainstreet is still underpolling them, which will skew the results there.

[King of Kensington]

So who is leading there - PC or Liberals?

PCs 9 points ahead of NDP.

[PeteB]

So who is leading there - PC or Liberals?

PCs 9 points ahead of NDP.

In that case, I agree - that is extremely disappointing for the NDP.  Peel (and the whole Northern 905) turning to PC is one factor that may decide the election.  The fact that Mainstreet is showing Sousa going down in Mississauga Lakeshore is also a bad indicator.

If the Peel ridings went to the NDP, or at least stayed Liberal, the PC would be in a minority position, after the election.  But, if the Tories start taking Peel, as well as York and Durham ridings, they will be close to majority territory, irrespective of how bad they do in the 416 area (and from their current position, they can hardly fare worse).  They are also showing strength in the East and Central ON, and at least staying competitive in the North.  Only in the SW and Niagara is the NDP truly hammering them.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP isn't "hammering" the PCs in SW Ontario at all.  It's very close.  What's happening is the NDP is driving the Liberals out of K-W and London.   

Getting "respectable second" in York-Simcoe and BGOS while under-perfomring in Brampton does not bid well for the NDP.