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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 92218 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #175 on: January 25, 2018, 01:57:53 am »

Do you think Kathleen Wynne would be tempted to call a snap election in hope that the controversies around Brown and before the PC potently get a new leader.   

If she does this will backfire big time.  People will see it for what it is, blatant political opportunism.  Just ask Theresa May, Jim Prentice, or David Peterson how well their decision was to call an early opportunistic election and unlike Wynne, they all had big leads in the polls.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #176 on: January 25, 2018, 08:24:11 am »

I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

I will now accept my accolades.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #177 on: January 25, 2018, 08:29:41 am »

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

This looks like the best approach.

The writ drop is in like four months. Seems way too short of a time to have a convention and introduce a new leader to the public. Far better to do a British style caucus vote and give the new leader time to get up to speed.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #178 on: January 25, 2018, 08:37:36 am »

One important thing to remember about the PC caucus: it is deeply divided into different factions, and also don't forget, most of the PC candidates are Patrick Brown supporters, so we might see a whole slew of new nomination battles.
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« Reply #179 on: January 25, 2018, 08:45:48 am »

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

2. PC voters tend to absolutely LOATH Kathleen Wynne and polling data i have seen says that by about a 3-1 margin they have the NDP as their second choice not the Liberals...this could actually be a good opportunity for Andrea Horwath

The PCs are going to rush a leader, they have to. I think the smart move is probably Lisa MacLeod, the quash this whole thing and bring in three women as leaders.

I also think this could be a good/bad for the NDP; depending on whom the PC leader is of course. the change vote particularly among women and younger voters will migrate to the NDP. I think this could benefit the NDP in particular in the SW and North, perhaps the 905 as well. In TO, the PC vote is typically wealthier and more conservative, especially fiscally, I think this will sour some voters and decrease the PC vote, but will they migrate to the OLP again? I think there is some Liberal fatigue in TO but... it is Toronto so you never know. I think the new PC leader will determine if the PC vote stabilizes or drops, which will affect the NDP. Also, the PC vote could just stay home, which again benefits the OLP. Right now, the NDP HAS to focus on mobilizing those non-voter progressives, the same one's who came out for Trudeau.
But right now, Horwath is sitting as the best leader with the best brand.
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Krago
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« Reply #180 on: January 25, 2018, 10:08:31 am »

Two points on this.

1. The Liberals better be careful what they wish for. If this had come out during the writ period it would have been a total catastrophe for the PCs, but the election is still five months away and the PCs likely have some "quickie" emergency process for picking a new leader - perhaps caucus agreeing on someone. Whoever they pick could very quickly put all this behind them and turn out to be more popular than Brown was.

This looks like the best approach.

The writ drop is in like four months. Seems way too short of a time to have a convention and introduce a new leader to the public. Far better to do a British style caucus vote and give the new leader time to get up to speed.

There is the precedent of the 1988 Manitoba NDP leadership convention, which was held mid-campaign in the worst possible circumstances.

I'm trying to think of cases where a party replaced their leader just a few months prior to an election.  In the U.S., Republican Jon Grunseth was forced out of the 1990 Minnesota gubernatorial election just nine days before voting day due to a sex scandal involving pre-teen girls.  His replacement Arne Carlson defeated Democratic incumbent Rudy Perpich by 50%-47%.
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« Reply #181 on: January 25, 2018, 10:52:09 am »

There is also the example of Wildrose in Alberta being ditched by Danielle Smith and picking Brian Jean a week before the writ drop
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« Reply #182 on: January 25, 2018, 06:34:19 pm »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #183 on: January 25, 2018, 06:59:43 pm »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Probably a woman is better although Vic Fideli he is moderate and was a popular mayor.  He is not at all like Mike Harris, but certainly a female would help.  I think its early days and tough to know whether this will sink them or not.  The party has a strong organization, but they need to be united and whether the next leader can do that or not, we shall see.
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« Reply #184 on: January 25, 2018, 07:03:45 pm »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

There are plenty of women who would be disastrous choices for the PCs. Does anyone think Kellie Leitch would be at all appealing to anyone? And anyone who has seen Lisa MacLeod in action knows she is a loose cannon with very poor political instincts
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #185 on: January 25, 2018, 07:36:41 pm »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy
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« Reply #186 on: January 25, 2018, 08:19:30 pm »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

There are plenty of women who would be disastrous choices for the PCs. Does anyone think Kellie Leitch would be at all appealing to anyone? And anyone who has seen Lisa MacLeod in action knows she is a loose cannon with very poor political instincts

I mentioned Kellie Leitch as  a joke.  Squinting

More seriously, what about Lisa Raitt?  She was mentioned as a possible candidate when Pat Brown won the leadership.

The best example of a person who became leader just before or during an election and then caught a wave is Ed Schreyer in Manitoba in 1969.
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« Reply #187 on: January 25, 2018, 08:57:30 pm »

Christine Elliott.

Honestly, I think she is the best bet. I like Vic Fedeli but Elliott could be the best person to lead the party.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #188 on: January 25, 2018, 09:07:00 pm »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

Followed by losing by a large margin, losing 60% of their seats and sitting 15 years in the opposition?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #189 on: January 25, 2018, 09:59:25 pm »

The fact Vic Fideli comes from the same town as Mike Harris means nothing.  It's silly to assume that where someone comes from implies a certain platform.  Now if he advocates major cuts like Harris did and a similar platform that is a different story off course.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #190 on: January 25, 2018, 10:09:36 pm »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

My point was he was a terrible Premier. Probably the Canadian politician I loathe the most. And yes, I know being from North Bay has nothing to do with anything. Some good people there (my Dad's from there), but Harris was not one of them.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #191 on: January 26, 2018, 09:20:03 am »

From the Star!

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

"History rarely repeats itself directly. A lot can happen between now and June 7. But if, as the politicians seem to think, the upcoming election becomes a referendum on whether to oust Wynne, then voters will be looking for a credible alternative to the Liberals one that will be different but not too different." - this has been my point, is that the policies are popular, and with the details being different Horwath and the NDP are basically ready to slip in and continue on the changes made and move even more to the left.

Hints of 1990? basically with the PCs having to clean house and start all over again from a leaders perspective, the NDP is becoming the Alternative to the OLP.

Elliott is no longer an MPP, but that might not really matter too much if she wants the job. There was also mention of MPs Raitt and O"Toole could be interested in running for the leader. But already were seeing reports of the split between the hard-right, centre-right within the PCs. 
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #192 on: January 26, 2018, 10:25:00 am »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Two Tory majority governments? Better not let caucus get wind of your analogy

My point was he was a terrible Premier. Probably the Canadian politician I loathe the most. And yes, I know being from North Bay has nothing to do with anything. Some good people there (my Dad's from there), but Harris was not one of them.

I know, I just thought it was funny that there was a very different way for the Tories to interpret 'leader from North Bay' than what you were saying.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #193 on: January 26, 2018, 10:34:03 am »

From the Star!

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

"History rarely repeats itself directly. A lot can happen between now and June 7. But if, as the politicians seem to think, the upcoming election becomes a referendum on whether to oust Wynne, then voters will be looking for a credible alternative to the Liberals one that will be different but not too different." - this has been my point, is that the policies are popular, and with the details being different Horwath and the NDP are basically ready to slip in and continue on the changes made and move even more to the left.

Hints of 1990? basically with the PCs having to clean house and start all over again from a leaders perspective, the NDP is becoming the Alternative to the OLP.

Elliott is no longer an MPP, but that might not really matter too much if she wants the job. There was also mention of MPs Raitt and O"Toole could be interested in running for the leader. But already were seeing reports of the split between the hard-right, centre-right within the PCs. 

In an ideal world, the new Tory leader would:
a) be a woman to help counteract Brown
b) not be affiliated with a particular faction to help unify the party

Coming from outside caucus might help with criteria b, but Raitt is a Red Tory, as is Lisa MacLeod (I think). Does anyone in caucus fit the bill?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #194 on: January 26, 2018, 11:00:05 am »

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 23%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 12:20:45 pm by mileslunn »Logged

Jeppe
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« Reply #195 on: January 26, 2018, 11:01:56 am »

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 22%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.

The scandal happened 36 hours ago. It takes a couple of days for scandals to actually affect polling numbers.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #196 on: January 26, 2018, 11:37:52 am »

Agreed that it is too early to say what the full impact will be as polls take time to react.  But I think even if the poll is off it shows the PCs still can win the election if they choose the right candidate, which is off course a big if.
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« Reply #197 on: January 26, 2018, 11:44:42 am »

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 22%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.

I think it will also depend on the degree (if any) that the P.C caucus knew about these allegations and either sat on their hands or tried to cover them up.  I have no clue what happened, so I'm not trying to suggest anything one way or the other. 
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« Reply #198 on: January 26, 2018, 11:51:13 am »

The Forum poll has Ontario NDP support at 23% not 22%
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mileslunn
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« Reply #199 on: January 26, 2018, 12:20:30 pm »

The Forum poll has Ontario NDP support at 23% not 22%

Fixed that was a typo.
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