Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

From the Star!

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

"History rarely repeats itself directly. A lot can happen between now and June 7. But if, as the politicians seem to think, the upcoming election becomes a referendum on whether to oust Wynne, then voters will be looking for a credible alternative to the Liberals — one that will be different but not too different." - this has been my point, is that the policies are popular, and with the details being different Horwath and the NDP are basically ready to slip in and continue on the changes made and move even more to the left.

Hints of 1990? basically with the PCs having to clean house and start all over again from a leaders perspective, the NDP is becoming the Alternative to the OLP.

Elliott is no longer an MPP, but that might not really matter too much if she wants the job. There was also mention of MPs Raitt and O"Toole could be interested in running for the leader. But already were seeing reports of the split between the hard-right, centre-right within the PCs. 

In an ideal world, the new Tory leader would:
a) be a woman to help counteract Brown
b) not be affiliated with a particular faction to help unify the party

Coming from outside caucus might help with criteria b, but Raitt is a Red Tory, as is Lisa MacLeod (I think). Does anyone in caucus fit the bill?

There's been a lot of talk about Caroline Mulroney, so that might fit a & b, but she's not in caucus (yet) but is a shoe-in to get elected.

[136or142]

Erin O'Toole has also been mentioned.  He seems more interested in foreign and national policy issues (Armed Forces Veteran, former Veterans Affairs Minister, present Foreign Affairs Shadow Minister,) but, if it's worth anything, his father, John O'Toole, was a former P.C MPP.

[mileslunn]

Erin O'Toole has also been mentioned.  He seems more interested in foreign and national policy issues (Armed Forces Veteran, former Veterans Affairs Minister, present Foreign Affairs Shadow Minister,) but, if it's worth anything, his father, John O'Toole, was a former P.C MPP.

Also his riding Durham already has a candidate so that could be problematic too.  I think his best hope is Andrew Scheer loses in 2019 (which is likely but not certain) and as a more consensus candidate, he is the next leader and by 2023 the desire for change will be stronger so becoming prime-minister in 2023 than premier in 2018 seems more likely for him although making predictions on whom and where the Conservatives will be that far out is kind of silly.

[136or142]

Erin O'Toole has also been mentioned.  He seems more interested in foreign and national policy issues (Armed Forces Veteran, former Veterans Affairs Minister, present Foreign Affairs Shadow Minister,) but, if it's worth anything, his father, John O'Toole, was a former P.C MPP.

Also his riding Durham already has a candidate so that could be problematic too.  I think his best hope is Andrew Scheer loses in 2019 (which is likely but not certain) and as a more consensus candidate, he is the next leader and by 2023 the desire for change will be stronger so becoming prime-minister in 2023 than premier in 2018 seems more likely for him although making predictions on whom and where the Conservatives will be that far out is kind of silly.

I was just trying to point out some of the reasons why his name is in the mix should there be a leadership convention.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/stephen_taylor/status/956971193462022144

Very very credible intel: We very well could be seeing a Lisa Raitt run for PCPO leadership. #onpoli

Endorsed

[toaster]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

[mileslunn]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

Not sure.  While federally one must speak French to be prime-minister, I think it is more of an asset as opposed to requirement Ontario premiers speak French.  Not sure that Wynne speaks much French and Harris and Davis certainly did not.  Don't think Howarth does either.

[mileslunn]

It's official, there will be a leadership convention sometime before March 31st.  Due to the short timeframe I suspect there won't be many candidates.  A risky move, but probably wise to avoid any infighting.  The real danger is they choose someone too right wing.  The only good news is the more moderate ones have better organization and following thus probably tough for a hard right to win.

[Jeppe]

I’d like to see Raitt as PC leader. She’d be great!

[Hatman 🍁]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

French is not essential to be Premier of Ontario.

North Bay does has a sizable Francophone population, especially in the countryside around it. Corbeil (where the Dion quintuplets are from), Bonfield and Sturgeon Falls are all fairly Francophone. South of Lake Nipissing (I guess some would consider that Central Ontario) is very Anglo though.

[brucejoel99]

It's official, there will be a leadership convention sometime before March 31st.  Due to the short timeframe I suspect there won't be many candidates.  A risky move, but probably wise to avoid any infighting.  The real danger is they choose someone too right wing.  The only good news is the more moderate ones have better organization and following thus probably tough for a hard right to win.

Plus, Fedeli is evidently able able to run in the leadership race, so that'll obviously convey an advantage on a run for the permanent leadership, if he so chooses.

[136or142]

The NDP still have about 70 or so candidates to nominate.  Will they place a hold on nominations until after the P.Cs have chosen their new leader?

[DL]

The NDP still have about 70 or so candidates to nominate.  Will they place a hold on nominations until after the P.Cs have chosen their new leader?

No, why on earth would they???

[136or142]

The NDP still have about 70 or so candidates to nominate.  Will they place a hold on nominations until after the P.Cs have chosen their new leader?

No, why on earth would they???

To see what they're up against first.

[Holmes]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

French is not essential to be Premier of Ontario.

North Bay does has a sizable Francophone population, especially in the countryside around it. Corbeil (where the Dion quintuplets are from), Bonfield and Sturgeon Falls are all fairly Francophone. South of Lake Nipissing (I guess some would consider that Central Ontario) is very Anglo though.

Anything south of North Bay is not Northern Ontario. It's that easy.

I wanted to die whenever I heard people say they loved to go camping in the Northern Ontario area of Muskoka.

[DL]

The NDP still have about 70 or so candidates to nominate.  Will they place a hold on nominations until after the P.Cs have chosen their new leader?

No, why on earth would they???

To see what they're up against first.

The NDP and the PCs don't tend to fish from the same pond of voters (though that is changing)...but in any case local candidates don't matter that much. I mean seriously, give me a scenerio where i living in the downtown riding of University-Rosedale and an NDP member would say to myself "gee, if the PCs are led by Vic Fedeli we should run candidate X as a the local NDP candidate and if the PC leader is Rod Phillips, then we should run candidate Y". I'm sorry but i just cannot come up with a credible scenario like that.

There was some speculation the federal NDP might choose a different leader depending on who the federal Tories chose...but in the end, does anyone think that if the Tories had picked Bernier instead of Scheer it would have made any difference whatsoever to who the NDP chose? Would vast number of NDP have have said to themselves "Jagmeet Singh would have been good to run against Scheer, but since they picked Bernier, I guess we better go for Charlie Angus" 

[136or142]

The NDP still have about 70 or so candidates to nominate.  Will they place a hold on nominations until after the P.Cs have chosen their new leader?

No, why on earth would they???

To see what they're up against first.

The NDP and the PCs don't tend to fish from the same pond of voters (though that is changing)...but in any case local candidates don't matter that much. I mean seriously, give me a scenerio where i living in the downtown riding of University-Rosedale and an NDP member would say to myself "gee, if the PCs are led by Vic Fedeli we should run candidate X as a the local NDP candidate and if the PC leader is Rod Phillips, then we should run candidate Y". I'm sorry but i just cannot come up with a credible scenario like that.

There was some speculation the federal NDP might choose a different leader depending on who the federal Tories chose...but in the end, does anyone think that if the Tories had picked Bernier instead of Scheer it would have made any difference whatsoever to who the NDP chose? Would vast number of NDP have have said to themselves "Jagmeet Singh would have been good to run against Scheer, but since they picked Bernier, I guess we better go for Charlie Angus" 

Thanks.  I was just wondering.

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/stephen_taylor/status/956971193462022144

Very very credible intel: We very well could be seeing a Lisa Raitt run for PCPO leadership. #onpoli

Endorsed

Lisa Raitt not running

https://globalnews.ca/news/3991311/lisa-raitt-wont-seek-ontario-pc-leadership/

[King of Kensington]

There was some speculation the federal NDP might choose a different leader depending on who the federal Tories chose...but in the end, does anyone think that if the Tories had picked Bernier instead of Scheer it would have made any difference whatsoever to who the NDP chose? Would vast number of NDP have have said to themselves "Jagmeet Singh would have been good to run against Scheer, but since they picked Bernier, I guess we better go for Charlie Angus" 

At the time, I think one could think Angus looked weaker if the Tories had gone with Bernier since his French is pretty bad.  But he ended up doing so much worse than expectations that it probably would have made little difference in the end.

[King of Kensington]

Since this was written by Martin Regg Cohn I'm assuming Tories think having a leadership race now is a brilliant move:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/26/did-progressive-conservatives-just-give-away-the-game.html

[toaster]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

Not sure.  While federally one must speak French to be prime-minister, I think it is more of an asset as opposed to requirement Ontario premiers speak French.  Not sure that Wynne speaks much French and Harris and Davis certainly did not.  Don't think Howarth does either.

I understand that.  I just remember that Brown (along with Wynne) had agreed to a leaders debate in French this upcoming election (Horwath speaks barely any French).  Wynne's is ok, she can get by.  Guess it doesn't matter, I'm just curious.  There is almost always someone from R-C (or TFO) at press events with French questions, so it is a good thing.

[Njall]

Since this was written by Martin Regg Cohn I'm assuming Tories think having a leadership race now is a brilliant move:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/26/did-progressive-conservatives-just-give-away-the-game.html

FWIW, one of my hyperpartisan Conservative acquaintances posted that article on Facebook last night seemingly agreeing with Cohn, but that's anecdotal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

French is not essential to be Premier of Ontario.

North Bay does has a sizable Francophone population, especially in the countryside around it. Corbeil (where the Dion quintuplets are from), Bonfield and Sturgeon Falls are all fairly Francophone. South of Lake Nipissing (I guess some would consider that Central Ontario) is very Anglo though.

Anything south of North Bay is not Northern Ontario. It's that easy.

I wanted to die whenever I heard people say they loved to go camping in the Northern Ontario area of Muskoka.

Well, I wasn't talking about Muskoka, I was referring to Parry Sound District, which is culturally (for lack of a better term) Northern Ontarian, and is treated as part of Northern Ontario by the provincial government.

[King of Kensington]

Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton and Algonquin Park are the transition zone.

[136or142]

Muskoka, Parry Sound, Haliburton and Algonquin Park are the transition zone.

Do you consider Northumberland to be in Northern Ontario?