Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

It doesn't look that tough if you are non-partisan.

You seem to think that if it's impossible for the NDP to win a seat, the Liberals should be able to easily to take if it's traditionally been a Liberal vs. Conservative race.  You really think convincing voters in a riding that the Liberal is best positioned to win will swing the result by 20 points with two days to go sounds realistic, or that somehow voters will bolt to the Liberals en masse after coming to that conclusion?

While drinking party kool-aid is annoying (I have no time for "OMG Andrea is going to win Haliburton and Bay of Quinte and Elgin-Middlesex-London!" nonsense), being "nonpartisan" doesn't make an argument necessarily good either.  And BTW I prioritize defeating Ford over "what's best for the NDP." It's just that there's very, very few ridings where it is close enough and where the Liberals are clearly best positioned to beat the Conservative.

[Oryxslayer]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

We have to state, it is not the NDP who us unwilling, its the Liberals; Wynne is still aggressively targeting the NDP, with Fords attach lines, even more so then the they are attacking the PCs.

This is because it is better for the libs to see Ford win - as long as they still have something of a caucus to come back to. It allows the libs to rebuild and then argue in 2022 that the other two parties are unwanted extremes and the ruling party should return to the saddle - a successful argument from the past.

[ON Progressive]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

We have to state, it is not the NDP who us unwilling, its the Liberals; Wynne is still aggressively targeting the NDP, with Fords attach lines, even more so then the they are attacking the PCs.

This is because it is better for the libs to see Ford win - as long as they still have something of a caucus to come back to. It allows the libs to rebuild and then argue in 2022 that the other two parties are unwanted extremes and the ruling party should return to the saddle - a successful argument from the past.

Do the OLP have anybody like Trudeau though to bring the party back to relevancy?

[PeteB]

It doesn't look that tough if you are non-partisan.

You seem to think that if it's impossible for the NDP to win a seat, the Liberals should be able to easily to take if it's traditionally been a Liberal vs. Conservative race.  You really think convincing voters in a riding that the Liberal is best positioned to win will swing the result by 20 points with two days to go sounds realistic, or that somehow voters will bolt to the Liberals en masse after coming to that conclusion?

While drinking party kool-aid is annoying (I have no time for "OMG Andrea is going to win Haliburton and Bay of Quinte and Elgin-Middlesex-London!" nonsense), being "nonpartisan" doesn't make an argument necessarily good either.  And BTW I prioritize defeating Ford over "what's best for the NDP." It's just that there's very, very few ridings where it is close enough and where the Liberals are clearly best positioned to beat the Conservative.

At these poll numbers, yes I do.  It's impossible for the NDP to win seats in York and almost impossible in Durham and Mississauga.  As for  "there are very few ridings where Liberals could win, with strategic voting", keep in mind that the poll numbers are not necessarily showing true NDP support.  They are showing people who are either "angry" at Liberals but want no Ford or those who have drunk the Kool-Aid that the NDP can somehow win a majority (to use the same drink analogy).

BTW, I outlined those ridings that may benefit the ABF vote - if the Liberals (with NDP support) win Ajax, Vaughan Woodbridge, Richmond Hill and 4 Mississauga ridings, that is 7 seats moving from the PC column.  Add the certainty that with Liberal support NDP takes all Brampton seats, gets St. Catharines and ensures wins in Sarnia Lambton, Brantford Brant and Chatham Kent, and you have another 5-7 seats moving away from the PC column.  There would be even more gains if they included Toronto and Ottawa, but I don't think there is enough time (or goodwill), for the two to agree on that.

And, yes it may be tough for either party stalwarts to accept they are working with the other, but the alternative is a PC majority.

[mgop]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

[DC Al Fine]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

Glorious. Now let us pray the Tory/NDP prayer:

Screw the Liberals forever and ever Amen

[PeteB]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

Glorious. Now let us pray the Tory/NDP prayer:

Screw the Liberals forever and ever Amen

Fixed it for you . 

[Hatman 🍁]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

Glorious. Now let us pray the Tory/NDP prayer:

Screw the Liberals forever and ever Amen

Fixed it for you . 

I think many partisan New Democrats would love to see the Liberals evaporate, so no, DC was absolutely spot on.

[PeteB]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

Glorious. Now let us pray the Tory/NDP prayer:

Screw the Liberals forever and ever Amen

Fixed it for you . 

I think many partisan New Democrats would love to see the Liberals evaporate, so no, DC was absolutely spot on.

I agree that is probably the feeling among rank and file NDP-ers.  But in my book, coming in second is still a loss.

There is only one possible winner from the Liberals demise - PC.

[King of Kensington]

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

If only this poll is underestimating the Liberals by 10 points and overestimating the PCs by 10 points and that 85% of those that say they're voting NDP actually vote Liberal.  Easily done!

[ON Progressive]

I'm just glad I live in a riding where it's obvious what party would be the strongest one that isn't the PCs. Unfortunately, said riding is safely PC.

[PeteB]

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

If only this poll is underestimating the Liberals by 10 points and overestimating the PCs by 10 points and that 85% of those that say they're voting NDP actually vote Liberal.  Easily done!

Give me a break. LiUNA has an axe to grind with del Duca - they even use the poll "result" to highlight it. That poll is junk.  

[ON Progressive]

http://www.liuna.ca/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=77:ontario-election-vaughn-woodbridge-poll-by-campaign-research&catid=8&Itemid=106

If only this poll is underestimating the Liberals by 10 points and overestimating the PCs by 10 points and that 85% of those that say they're voting NDP actually vote Liberal.  Easily done!

Give me a break. LiUNA has an axe to grind with del Duca - they even use the poll "result" to highlight it. That poll is junk.  

Yeah, the LiUNA polls are absolutely trash.

[King of Kensington]

Just your run of the mill junk or the junkiest of junk polls in history type-junk?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why do they hate Del Duca?

[ON Progressive]

Why do they hate Del Duca?

LiUNA is a union that absolutely hates Schedule 14 of the Ontario budget (I don't know exactly what it does, I can't find much info from google), and Del Duca was the guy who introduced it to the budget.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why do they hate Del Duca?

LiUNA is a union that absolutely hates Schedule 14 of the Ontario budget (I don't know exactly what it does, I can't find much info from google), and Del Duca was the guy who introduced it to the budget.

What an irrational actor with an axe to grind against someone. In other words, they are perfectly suited to the realm of politics.

[PeteB]

Why do they hate Del Duca?

LiUNA is a union that absolutely hates Schedule 14 of the Ontario budget (I don't know exactly what it does, I can't find much info from google), and Del Duca was the guy who introduced it to the budget.

LiUNA claims that Schedule 14 would remove "the bargaining rights of thousands of LIUNA formworkers and void parts of a province-wide collective agreement that has been in place for more than 40 years", whatever that means in practice.  LiUNA has it in for Wynne, Del Duca, Sousa and Kevin Flynn, who all drove the legislation.  They may or may not be right, but their polls are certainly suspect.

[King of Kensington]

They may be - but it's not really that out of line with what riding level polling is showing in York Region, though Vaughan wasn't polled specifically.

[King of Kensington]

Actually if you look at the tiny number of seats where the Liberals still have a chance, they are mostly OLP/PC contests. These would include Wynne's own Don Valley West seat, Eglinton Lawrence and possibly Don Valley East or North. If you believe the riding polls by Mainstreet the Liberals are locked in a dead heat with the NDP in St. Paul's (not sure i believe it) and are only a few points behind the NDP in University-Rosedale (I expect the NDP to win that one pretty easily)

In addition to being OLP/PC contests, I would add another factor: they are OLP/PC contests in ridings where Ford bombs compared to a more mainstream PC leader like Christine Elliott, as well as a good number to "too educated to vote for Ford, too rich to vote NDP" types.

Are there any ridings that Ford is not a liability to the PC brand that the Liberals can still win?  Probably not in Mississauga.  Certainly not Vaughan or much of York Region.  Oakville is probably the closest in the 905 to this, but I think the Liberals are too weak to hold on there. 

[PeteB]

Actually if you look at the tiny number of seats where the Liberals still have a chance, they are mostly OLP/PC contests. These would include Wynne's own Don Valley West seat, Eglinton Lawrence and possibly Don Valley East or North. If you believe the riding polls by Mainstreet the Liberals are locked in a dead heat with the NDP in St. Paul's (not sure i believe it) and are only a few points behind the NDP in University-Rosedale (I expect the NDP to win that one pretty easily)

In addition to being OLP/PC contests, I would add another factor: they are OLP/PC contests in ridings where Ford bombs compared to a more mainstream PC leader like Christine Elliott, as well as a good number to "too educated to vote for Ford, too rich to vote NDP" types.

Are there any ridings that Ford is not a liability to the PC brand that the Liberals can still win?  Probably not in Mississauga.  Certainly not Vaughan or much of York Region.  Oakville is probably the closest in the 905 to this, but I think the Liberals are too weak to hold on there. 

Have faith in del Duca...

[King of Kensington]

Maybe anger about the removal of the first person of Italian ancestry to lead a major party, and they'll take their anger out on Ford and the PCs for denying them the opportunity to vote for the first Italian Canadian premier and get their revenge by re-electing Steven Del Duca who proceeds to become leader of the OLP? 

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Seems like the liberals may be recovering in eastern Ontario which likley means finishing above 30% in Ottawa. Mainstreet in their public poll has them neck and neck with the NDP and not too far back from the PC. I could definitely see them holding Ottawa-Vanier plus Ottawa-South and maybe Ottawa West—Nepean and Orléans. The PC also don't seem to be improving much from 2016 while most of the movement is from Liberals migrating to the NDP.

In Toronto the Liberals seems stuck in third and well below 30% in general and based on past results that probably suggests only winning 3-5 seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wouldn't read much into subsamples, especially not from fairly sketchy outfits like Mainstreet...

[King of Kensington]

Seems like the liberals may be recovering in eastern Ontario which likley means finishing above 30% in Ottawa. Mainstreet in their public poll has them neck and neck with the NDP and not too far back from the PC. I could definitely see them holding Ottawa-Vanier plus Ottawa-South and maybe Ottawa West—Nepean and Orléans. The PC also don't seem to be improving much from 2016 while most of the movement is from Liberals migrating to the NDP.

Yeah, Ottawa may be their best bet.  It was very strong for the OLP in 1990.  Maybe suburban Ottawa will be for Ford what Northern Virginia was for Trump!