Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm. This election does have a BC 2017 feel to it.  The polls were tied and we were all told the electoral map favoured the Liberals.

So the Liberals will end up like the BC Greens and hold the balance of power with their few seats?

The Greens or the Liberals (or both!).

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Hmm, we'd have to re-incarnate some old parties. Ford would be a SoCred and Wynne would be a...  Progressive Democrat?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is anyone here from Northern Ontario? I predicted that Doug Ford would play well in the working class communities across Northern Ontario, much like Trump did in the Rust Belt in 2016. 

Imagine a Trump vs Sanders race instead of a Trump vs. Clinton race.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just curious, has baby Trudeau intervened at all on behalf of the Ontario Libs, or do federal politicians generally keep their noses out of provincial campaigns, unlike in the US?

Completely out of it except for actually voting (and for some reason the right was all up in arms because he represents a Quebec riding, but as PM he lives in Ontario, so what's the big deal?), but some of his MPs have canvassed, but are mostly staying out of it.

Likewise Scheer has stayed out too, but Jagmeet has been out there trying to get his brother elected.

[Hatman 🍁]

They'll be posting some more NDP-friendly ridings today including:

Ottawa Centre
Spadina-Fort York
Niagara Falls
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Kitchener Centre
Humber River-Black Creek
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Mississauga-Streetsville (WHY? Should be a safe PC seat)

Whatever they show for Spadina-Fort York you can throw in the garbage, as who in that riding even owns a landline?

Maggi hinted last night that his riding polling yesterday was convincing him of a PC majority. Does this mean the NDP is trailing in these ridings? These should all be going NDP except maybe TBSN.

[Hatman 🍁]

but just like the left in other parts of the world, the NDP's base is becoming more and more higher educated while the working class is becoming more and more attracted to right wing populism.

[Hatman 🍁]

They're also polling Humber River-Black Creek (née York West), which will be a giant crap shoot too.

[Hatman 🍁]

They're also polling Humber River-Black Creek (née York West), which will be a giant crap shoot too.

The Campaign Research poll of TO ridings actually put the PCs in the lead there!  Small sample size though.

Much earlier in this thread I suggested it was quite possible for the PCs to win there and in York South-Weston due to how well Ford did in those ridings in the mayoral election. Of course the state of the race is much different now, but I think it's possible for the PCs to win both still.

Interestingly I would expect riding polls to under count the PCs and the NDP in both ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is still doing well in Liberal ridings but not so good in PC ridings.

And if you're talking about the riding I think you are Miles, then it's not that surprising if you read my hot takes today.

[Hatman 🍁]

Makes me wonder about York South-Weston, a riding with an almost identical vote share to the riding in question in 2014 and an almost identical mayoral vote share distribution from 2014.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another thing:  The NDP is sure to win at least one seat in Ottawa.

and with a late minute swing might even win four seats!

Even if the NDP loses the election, I would be quite pleased with that result.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course in 2011 people scoffed at the idea of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

those polls are much junkier than Mainstreet's.

[Hatman 🍁]

Small shifts happening, but yes- unfortunately. Rationally, I don't think this will amount to much, but emotionally I'm panicking.  

[Hatman 🍁]

They're certainly more reliable than constituency polls

lol no. Have you been to Canada during an election?

Take Ottawa Centre for example. The NDP always wins the sign war, even if they lose the riding 50-20. Even the worst riding polls would show the Liberals ahead at least.

Just like riding polls, you need to know what to look for to decipher patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

[Hatman 🍁]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

Do you think Mainstreet is on probation for their huge Calgary screw-up?

Yes, not to mention the aforementioned BC riding polls and some of the other by-election riding polls they've done.

But back to the costs of such a thing, let's be generous and say there are 1000 subscribers. That's $30K. That's nowhere close to the amount that it would cost to collect as many cases as they have in all of those ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

Do you think Mainstreet is on probation for their huge Calgary screw-up?

Yes, not to mention the aforementioned BC riding polls and some of the other by-election riding polls they've done.

But back to the costs of such a thing, let's be generous and say there are 1000 subscribers. That's $30K. That's nowhere close to the amount that it would cost to collect as many cases as they have in all of those ridings.

Hatman, how much does your standard election poll cost to do?

Depends on a lot of factors of course. But to do what Mainstreet is doing we would charge well in excess of $100K, I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

The reason riding polls can be so unreliable is that it’s is impossible to get riding specific cell phone sample especially in urban ridings and that mean that no matter how much weighting you try to do you are still only surveying people with listed landline numbers are are not representative of the population

That is a huge problem, as is the response rates for certain demographic groups (e.g. visible minorities, indigenous people, etc). Also, ridings with rather new housing developments will have fewer listed numbers as sampling companies have yet to update their lists.

All this to say is that when analyzing riding polls, you need to also "know what to look for" and make corresponding adjustments, or else just throw in the junk pile.

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is eight points behind in Brampton and eleven points ahead in Halton/Mississauga?

Fascinating.

Uhhh... ignore the regional numbers. I don't know why we included them this time. They're designed for a much larger sample size.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maggi has already put his riding polls out for the day, and none of them are the 'shockers' that he had promised.

[Hatman 🍁]

He also lied about showing the same trend lines...

He may not be a scammer like Al seems to think he is, but he sure is being disingenuous.

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Pardon m’y schadenfreude that the OLP is stuck at 19%. Mainstreet seems to be the only one showing any recovery at all for them. I’m still optimistic and that a lot of soft Liberals and Greens will go NDP in the end

Honestly, the NDP-niks are freaking out over the drop in support, but having the headline read 'Doug Ford on track for majority government' going into the final weekend will feed directly into Horwath's strategic voting message.  But if the Tories keep hanging close to 40% in the polls, strategic voting won't change the result.

Honestly, if you are still voting LIB at this point, there is little chance you will move to the NDP at the last moment. You more likely either want to save the parties furniture for the next election, or are a dead set partisan.

From the most recent Mainstreet poll, one-sixth of remaining Liberals supporters are 'very likely' to change their vote to their second choice, which is overwhelmingly NDP.

The previous record for Liberal futility was set in 1923 under the leadership of Wellington Hay - 21.3%.  Here's my favourite Wikipedia quote about the 1923 election:

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The previous low for seats for the Liberals was 1951 where they won 8 seats with a respectable 32% of the vote. Man, that must've been a pretty gerrymandered map. The CCF won just 2 seats with 19% of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey Hatman, would you be able to combine the figures for City of Toronto and for the 905/GTA?

Well, our hilariously small regional subsamples are on our site. But, if I expand the dates in field to the last six days, things make a bit more sense. The NDP leads in Hamilton/Niagara, the PCs lead Halton/Peel and are well ahead in York/Durham with the NDP and Liberals battling it out for second.

[Hatman 🍁]

For all the buzz about the Liberals showing “signs of life” and getting a “bounce” after the debate...looking at EKOS and Mainstreet and Research.co polls out today....looks to my like the dead cat bounce is DEAD

Indeed. My irrational anxiety about the Liberals coming back from the dead has been relieved!