Ontario 2018 election
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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198909 times)
Njall
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« Reply #2300 on: June 06, 2018, 11:21:44 AM »

Yes PressProgress is left-leaning, Its a "'project" by the Broadbent Institute, so is definitely NDP friendly. But look at the Sun and tell me their aren't overtly Conservative right.
But if you can point to where any of this is incorrect, please do.. but this goes to show the caliber of the PC candidates.


None of is technically incorrect. The only thing I’d point out is that 29 of the 34 candidates in that article are in there for the same thing: supposed Elections Ontario investigations into their possible relations to the Highway 407 thing. Unfortunately, Press Progress doesn’t link to a source for that one, but I seem to recall that at least some of those investigations were prompted by Liberal or NDP complaints.

Anyways, it’s not as if the article’s wrong, it’s just the framing that bugs me. On the other hand, it’s framing I’m willing to live with at this point given the swill that the Sun continues to pump out.
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PeteB
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« Reply #2301 on: June 06, 2018, 11:25:29 AM »

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

Could be, but then why not Parkdale High Park, Beaches East York, Toronto Centre or Spadina - Ft. York?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2302 on: June 06, 2018, 11:42:03 AM »

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

Could be, but then why not Parkdale High Park, Beaches East York, Toronto Centre or Spadina - Ft. York?

Parkdale-High Park - has only a recent history of being a Strong NDP riding, thanks in part to Cheri DiNovo's win in 2006 (I think) the old Parkdale looked like an NDP seat but was held by the Liberals, even in 1990.

Toronto Centre - Again, there have been blocks of strong NDP support but overall this has been a Liberal riding, with NDP swings.
Spadina-Fort York - See above, but here the old For York riding leaned much more to the NDP.
-> demographically with the Condo boom these two ridings have become strongholds for Progressives, that are swinging between the NDP and Liberals

Beaches-East York- Interesting mix, the East York area is much working class, ethnically mixed and tends to swing between the OLP/NDP. Beaches used to be much more of a strong NDP area but this area has become much wealthier.

Toronto-Danforth - the NDP history here goes way back, Riverdale has been held by the NDP continuously since 1964. Demographically this is still a left-progressive area but has been home to strong NDP personalities like Jack Layton, Marylin Churley, Peter Tabuns, Paula Fletcher... the NDP brand is just really strong here and the grassroots NDP community are highly active.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2303 on: June 06, 2018, 11:58:16 AM »
« Edited: June 06, 2018, 12:05:12 PM by King of Kensington »

The "flip" between Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York over the last 20 years or so is interesting. Now P-HP has a solid 40% NDP vote even in bad times, while Beaches has become a lot more of a Liberal-leaning riding that goes NDP in the right circumstances.  

Davenport too has become part of the "40% even in bad times" club.

It seems that gentrification in the west end has been of a "pro-NDP" sort while demographic changes in the Beaches area has made it more like St. Paul's (where the NDP is also in play this time!)
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PeteB
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« Reply #2304 on: June 06, 2018, 12:05:53 PM »

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

Could be, but then why not Parkdale High Park, Beaches East York, Toronto Centre or Spadina - Ft. York?

Parkdale-High Park - has only a recent history of being a Strong NDP riding, thanks in part to Cheri DiNovo's win in 2006 (I think) the old Parkdale looked like an NDP seat but was held by the Liberals, even in 1990.

Toronto Centre - Again, there have been blocks of strong NDP support but overall this has been a Liberal riding, with NDP swings.
Spadina-Fort York - See above, but here the old For York riding leaned much more to the NDP.
-> demographically with the Condo boom these two ridings have become strongholds for Progressives, that are swinging between the NDP and Liberals

Beaches-East York- Interesting mix, the East York area is much working class, ethnically mixed and tends to swing between the OLP/NDP. Beaches used to be much more of a strong NDP area but this area has become much wealthier.

Toronto-Danforth - the NDP history here goes way back, Riverdale has been held by the NDP continuously since 1964. Demographically this is still a left-progressive area but has been home to strong NDP personalities like Jack Layton, Marylin Churley, Peter Tabuns, Paula Fletcher... the NDP brand is just really strong here and the grassroots NDP community are highly active.

I don't dispute any of this.  But then, if the NDP enthusiasm is there in inner city TO, why don't all these ridings show up on the Top 10 % Increase list, and yet Toronto Danforth does?  Especially since imho, Tabuns would win Danforth, even if that was the last NDP seat in Ontario.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2305 on: June 06, 2018, 12:11:05 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2018, 12:15:58 PM by King of Kensington »

There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm in University-Rosedale for the NDP for Jessica Bell.

It's kinda funny to see the very constituencies the ONDP brass dumped on for being hopeless champagne sipping Liberals who don't get the working class in SW Ontario so enthusiastically swing to the NDP this time.  

The urban progressive and "metropolitan left" was the pillar of social democracy's base where they underperformed last time and seem to be the demographics most enthusiastically swinging toward the NDP now (which unfortunately won't stop any PCs).
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2306 on: June 06, 2018, 12:16:50 PM »

The "flip" between Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York over the last 20 years or so is interesting. Now P-HP has a solid 40% NDP vote even in bad times, while Beaches has become a lot more of a Liberal-leaning riding that goes NDP in the right circumstances. 

Davenport too has become more NDP.

It seems that gentrification in the west end has been of a "pro-NDP" sort while gentrification of the Beaches area has made it more like St. Paul's (where the NDP is also in play this time!)

Absolutely, you can see where demographics have contributed to both.

Interestingly the old Beaches-Woodbine was a solid NDP riding since 1975, the north end, was Don Mills (East York plus but included areas now in Don Valley East and West) was more PC. Now, since about 2011 Beaches has trended OLP. in 2014 the NDP lost BEY because you can see a very noticeable N/S split; NDP winning the north, East York and the OLP winning the Beaches in the South. Still a bit swingy I feel, but there is a stronger OLP base then previously, due to just how expensive and NIMBY the area is here.

The NDP are trying to re-build here you can see that, municipally former NDP MP Matthew Kellway is running in the Beaches council ward.

Uni-Rosedale = Candidate and University and the strongest stable NDP areas from Trinity-Spadina

PeteB, Good observation? I wonder if perhaps they were top 20?
Toronto-Danforth could also have a lot of volunteers who voted early in order to spend Thursday pulling the vote?

I am also seeing tons of enthusiasm in Toronto Centre, but this is legit a battleground riding so I think that has something to do with it
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DL
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« Reply #2307 on: June 06, 2018, 12:23:14 PM »

Final poll by Pollara June 3-5

PCs - 38% (down 1 from yesterday)
NDP - 38% (up 1 from yesterday)
OLP - 17% (flat)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-photo-finish/
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #2308 on: June 06, 2018, 12:32:27 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2018, 12:39:05 PM by Progressive Democrat »

Final poll from Ipsos

PC 39% (+2)
NDP 36% (+2)
Liberal 19% (-3)

https://globalnews.ca/news/4256612/ontario-election-ipsos-poll-doug-ford-pc-majority/
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Njall
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« Reply #2309 on: June 06, 2018, 12:35:49 PM »

I noticed an interesting non-endorsement/'pick strong local candidates' endorsement piece from the Waterloo Region Record. They encourage voters to pick incumbents Daiene Vernile (OLP) in Kitchener Centre, Catherine Fife (NDP) in Waterloo, and Kathryn McGarry (OLP) in Cambridge, while giving a half-endorsement to Amy Fee (PC) in Kitchener South-Hespeler (I say "half-endorsement" because they name her as the strongest while encouraging voters to also check out other candidates). In Kitchener-Conestoga, they decry the ouster of incumbent MPP Michael Harris as a "disservice to democracy," while not naming an alternative to vote for.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2310 on: June 06, 2018, 12:38:53 PM »

The last three polls (Pollara, EKOS and IPSOS) all that the NDP gaining (small amounts, 1-2%) but back on up in the Polls. Recent events (i.e. Ford's issues, candidates and personal issues)?

Interesting is how close all three are: PC 38-39% NDP 36-39%, OLP 17-19%
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PeteB
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« Reply #2311 on: June 06, 2018, 12:42:30 PM »

And based on the two polls that just came out and the TCTC website seat simulator:


POLLARA
PC - 70 seats
NDP - 52 seats
Liberal - 1 seat
Green - 1 seat (assuming Greens have at least 5% - otherwise it goes NDP)

IPSOS
PC - 76 seats
NDP - 46 seats
Liberal - 1 seat
Green - 1 seat (assuming Greens have at least 5% - otherwise it goes PC)
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2312 on: June 06, 2018, 12:45:11 PM »

I would cry out HERDING but our numbers are within those ranges too :/
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PeteB
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« Reply #2313 on: June 06, 2018, 01:02:09 PM »

I was also doing some sensitivity analysis, based on the Pollara poll.  In order for PC and NDP to be at least tied at 62 seats each, one of these three scenarios needs to happen:

1. 5% of the Liberal vote needs to cross over to the NDP
(i.e. the vote needs to be PC-38%, NDP-43%, Liberal-12%)

OR

2. 2.5% of the PC vote needs to cross over to the NDP
(i.e. the vote needs to be PC-35.5%, NDP-40.5%, Liberal-17%)

OR

3. 4% of the PC vote shifts, equally split into Liberal and PC camps
(i.e. the vote needs to be PC-34%, NDP-40%, Liberal-19%)

Of course, these are simplistic scenarios on a suspect simulator, but that is a high level overview.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2314 on: June 06, 2018, 01:18:39 PM »

EPP, using their "gut feeling" methodology has called all but two seats: Sault Ste Marie and Ottawa South. 

Here's their Liberal holds (9 seats):

Ottawa-Vanier
Ottawa Centre
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Vaughan-Woodbridge

Mostly EPP has a bias towards 'conservative' outcomes and the re-election of incumbents if there's any doubt. Sometimes this works out well (let's just say that a 91% success rate is rather better than you'd have got from almost any British political pundit last June), sometimes - as in the past two Canadian federal elections: getting roughly one in four seats wrong is a bit *ouch* - it's a bit of a fiasco. But always fascinating and I'm glad it's still going in this age of dreary DATA driven projections (which mostly are no better).
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2315 on: June 06, 2018, 01:52:13 PM »

It's true, EPP may no end up being closer or no further off than the TCTC guy.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2316 on: June 06, 2018, 01:57:13 PM »

Looks like CARP (cdn ass. of Retired person's.. or people, anywho)

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/06/06/news/horwath-gaining-ford-among-older-voters-says-poll

Support for the NDP has doubled among CARP members since April

PCs - 31% down from 37%
NDP - 26%, up from 10%!
OLP - 20%, down from 22%

undecideds dropped from 14% from 29%
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #2317 on: June 06, 2018, 02:10:53 PM »

Well if that's the case my numbers are going to be way wrong and we'll see a large PC majority. Wow.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2318 on: June 06, 2018, 02:12:36 PM »

Well, Mainstreet is avoiding the herding. They now have the PCs up by 6. lol...


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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2319 on: June 06, 2018, 02:15:25 PM »

Mike Colle (Eglinton-Lawrence) and Shelley Carroll (Don Valley North) are (correctly) telling voters that only they have a chance of stopping Doug Ford.  This tactic is being copied in other ridings like St. Paul's though where it doesn't make sense.  But the St. Paul's Libs are trying to appeal as much to John Tory voters as progressives that are voting NDP.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2320 on: June 06, 2018, 02:16:31 PM »

It seems like these three-way races in many Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough ridings are what might make or break the PC majority.  They could slip through in them with 35-40% of the vote.
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DL
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« Reply #2321 on: June 06, 2018, 02:16:37 PM »

Well, Mainstreet is avoiding the herding. They now have the PCs up by 6. lol...




It will be interesting to see what Forum comes up with in their inevitable final poll. Normally I'd expect the IVR polls (EKOS, Forum and Mainstreet) to be very similar...but maybe not. One thing I have heard from some pollsters who now prefer online panels is that the people who respond to IVR polls (which btw have very very low response rates) tend to older, whiter and angrier and more opinionated than the overall population, but who knows
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #2322 on: June 06, 2018, 02:18:32 PM »

Well, Mainstreet is avoiding the herding. They now have the PCs up by 6. lol...




It will be interesting to see what Forum comes up with in their inevitable final poll. Normally I'd expect the IVR polls (EKOS, Forum and Mainstreet) to be very similar...but maybe not. One thing I have heard from some pollsters who now prefer online panels is that the people who respond to IVR polls (which btw have very very low response rates) tend to older, whiter and angrier and more opinionated than the overall population, but who knows
Mainstreet also seems to be showing the Liberal much higher then other pollsters.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #2323 on: June 06, 2018, 02:27:55 PM »

Mike Colle (Eglinton-Lawrence) and Shelley Carroll (Don Valley North) are (correctly) telling voters that only they have a chance of stopping Doug Ford.  This tactic is being copied in other ridings like St. Paul's though where it doesn't make sense.  But the St. Paul's Libs are trying to appeal as much to John Tory voters as progressives that are voting NDP.

sadly, Liberals are doing this using 2014 polling as "proof" that only they can stop the PCs... when they can't, not in Scarborough (minus Agincourt) or Etobicoke (minus E.Centre)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #2324 on: June 06, 2018, 02:57:42 PM »

Mainstreet's last riding polls sure seem to be overstating PC support.  30% in St. Paul's with Ford leading them?  I doubt it.  30% in University-Rosedale - did they mainly poll people in Rosedale?
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