Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

Mostly EPP has a bias towards 'conservative' outcomes and the re-election of incumbents if there's any doubt. Sometimes this works out well (let's just say that a 91% success rate is rather better than you'd have got from almost any British political pundit last June), sometimes - as in the past two Canadian federal elections: getting roughly one in four seats wrong is a bit *ouch* - it's a bit of a fiasco. But always fascinating and I'm glad it's still going in this age of dreary DATA driven projections (which mostly are no better).

I've come to think of said "dreary DATA driven projections" as a little like the psephological equivalent of talking GPS: it may "get you there" (seemingly), but it's no match for well-tuned navigational skills--or what London taxi operators call "The Knowledge".  It's an easy crutch; that's it.

And when the CBC Poll Tracker tells us so-and-so and everybody sounds the "PC majority" note, it becomes a Voice From The Gods; much as with talking GPS, we don't *dare* defy what Siri's telling us to do.

I'm not saying a PC majority won't happen; but I'd rather be generous and open-ended rather than make too-firm predictions.  Much as there's many, many ways to get from Point A to Point B; and Siri can go shove it...

[King of Kensington]

Interestingly the old Beaches-Woodbine was a solid NDP riding since 1975, the north end, was Don Mills (East York plus but included areas now in Don Valley East and West) was more PC. Now, since about 2011 Beaches has trended OLP. in 2014 the NDP lost BEY because you can see a very noticeable N/S split; NDP winning the north, East York and the OLP winning the Beaches in the South. Still a bit swingy I feel, but there is a stronger OLP base then previously, due to just how expensive and NIMBY the area is here.

Yeah, if you look at incomes, transit usage and so on the Beaches looks more like North Toronto by the lake or something.  It's not "hipster" gentrification at all, but liberally minded accountants and the like (a lot of "better educated than paid" people).

The west end has more renters, a younger population and is hipster central - so more to the left politically.  More contract faculty or young journalists working for Vice or something.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

ResearchCo

PC 39% (+1)
NDP 37%(-2)
Liberal 20% (+2)
Green 4% (-)
Other 1% (-)

https://researchco.ca/2018/06/06/ontario-final-2018/

[Arkansas Yankee]

Wishing the PCs well. 

[PeteB]

Hatman - Around what time tomorrow will we see the riding projections. I know overall it is 67-75 PC, 41-49 NDP, 5-10 Liberal and 1 Green but be interested to see which ones.

Sometime in the AM, I hope.

Looked at the EKOS poll - some interesting results:

* The millenials breaking for PC over NDP is a little bit of a surprise.

* it's not new but it's fun to see that this would be an easy NDP win, if only women voted.

* I would really like to meet the 9% of the polled who still think Liberals will form government.

* I am not particularly surprised about the higher income, higher education and higher class breaking for the NDP, but it does indicate unease of the "enlightened classes" with Doug Ford

[Krago]

On the Ipsos poll, the party numbers were:

PC 39, NDP 36, Lib 19,

but the Best Premier numbers were:

Horwath 41, Ford 34, Wynne 20.


So 5% of Ontario voters want a PC government led by Andrea Horwath.

[Krago]

For those wishing a stroll down memory lane, here is the Atlas thread from the 2014 Ontario provincial election:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=190635.0

[Pragmatic Conservative]

So I believe do to 90% of voters living in precincts with electronic vote counters we should get results relatively tomorrow night.   

[PeteB]

On the Ipsos poll, the party numbers were:

PC 39, NDP 36, Lib 19,

but the Best Premier numbers were:

Horwath 41, Ford 34, Wynne 20.


So 5% of Ontario voters want a PC government led by Andrea Horwath.

No, but those 5% would probably be thrilled if PC wins a majority, Ford loses his seat, and Elliott is selected as the new PC leader and Premier.

[mileslunn]

Forum came out at the last minute and similar to Ekos and Mainstreet. 39 percent PC, 34 percent NDP and 21 percent Liberal. So looking at today's numbers, PC majority looks like the most likely outcome.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ugh.

[ON Progressive]

Ugh.

[136or142]

Wishing the PCs well. 

One Trump isn't bad enough?

[Jeppe]

One thing I don’t quite understand is, if the NDP vote is too inefficient, then where is it concentrated? Because isn’t Doug Ford supposed to be competitive in SW Ontario, where the NDP’s base traditionally is?

I know that their vote share will increase by a lot in a ton of safe PC seats, at the expense of the Liberals, but there seems to be relatively few NDP blowout seats (where they win by like an unnecessary 30 points or something), unlike with the PC’s. That doesn’t quite seem to add up, but maybe I’m just being dumb..

[ON Progressive]

One thing I don’t quite understand is, if the NDP vote is too inefficient, then where is it concentrated? Because isn’t Doug Ford supposed to be competitive in SW Ontario, where the NDP’s base traditionally is?

I know that their vote share will increase by a lot in a ton of safe PC seats, at the expense of the Liberals, but there seems to be relatively few NDP blowout seats (where they win by like an unnecessary 30 points or something), unlike with the PC’s. That doesn’t quite seem to add up, but maybe I’m just being dumb..

Urban ridings (I.e. Toronto proper)

[136or142]

On the Ipsos poll, the party numbers were:

PC 39, NDP 36, Lib 19,

but the Best Premier numbers were:

Horwath 41, Ford 34, Wynne 20.


So 5% of Ontario voters want a PC government led by Andrea Horwath.

No, but those 5% would probably be thrilled if PC wins a majority, Ford loses his seat, and Elliott is selected as the new PC leader and Premier.

I think there have been some other comments similar to this. The idea that Doug Ford would step down if he loses his seat but leads the P.Cs to a majority government is even more ridiculous than wishful thinking.

[King of Kensington]

100% agree.  People should not justify support for the PCs by deluding themselves that adults in the room like Vic Fedeli or Christine Elliott will take charge.  Every candidate elected in every riding is the local apologist for Doug Ford.

[King of Kensington]

What are some pickups do you see major swings (say +20 points from 2014) in?

NDP pickups with biggest swing toward the party

Ottawa Centre
Spadina-Fort York
Toronto Centre
University-Rosedale (new riding)
maybe something in Brampton?

PC pickups with biggest swing toward the party

Etobicoke North
Vaughan-Woodbridge
maybe King-Vaughan (new riding)

[cp]

Caveats about predicting the future notwithstanding, I really think people are overestimating the impact of a single election on a political party, especially one like the OLP. Even a disastrous showing (1-5 seats) would leave them with enough presence in the legislature to organize. Beyond that, and more importantly, the OLP, like most well-entrenched parties, is much more than its elected representatives. The money, institutional memory, expertise, and informal networks that animate it now will still be available to it after the election.

On a broader point, if you look at the ways political parties have died before it's been through a combination of prolonged atrophy and a major issue that split the party (or that it ended up on the wrong side of). The US Whigs, the British Liberals, the SoCreds, the Union Nationale, the pre-merger PCs - they all suffered multiple terms out of office and generational shifts on major issues before they were extinguished (and even then, you can argue a lot of them are still around in some form or another).

[mgop]

Caveats about predicting the future notwithstanding, I really think people are overestimating the impact of a single election on a political party, especially one like the OLP. Even a disastrous showing (1-5 seats) would leave them with enough presence in the legislature to organize. Beyond that, and more importantly, the OLP, like most well-entrenched parties, is much more than its elected representatives. The money, institutional memory, expertise, and informal networks that animate it now will still be available to it after the election.

On a broader point, if you look at the ways political parties have died before it's been through a combination of prolonged atrophy and a major issue that split the party (or that it ended up on the wrong side of). The US Whigs, the British Liberals, the SoCreds, the Union Nationale, the pre-merger PCs - they all suffered multiple terms out of office and generational shifts on major issues before they were extinguished (and even then, you can argue a lot of them are still around in some form or another).

yeah but what if they get 0 seats? did ever happend that rulling party lose all seats? at least greens pick one district and go for it.

[DC Al Fine]

Caveats about predicting the future notwithstanding, I really think people are overestimating the impact of a single election on a political party, especially one like the OLP. Even a disastrous showing (1-5 seats) would leave them with enough presence in the legislature to organize. Beyond that, and more importantly, the OLP, like most well-entrenched parties, is much more than its elected representatives. The money, institutional memory, expertise, and informal networks that animate it now will still be available to it after the election.

On a broader point, if you look at the ways political parties have died before it's been through a combination of prolonged atrophy and a major issue that split the party (or that it ended up on the wrong side of). The US Whigs, the British Liberals, the SoCreds, the Union Nationale, the pre-merger PCs - they all suffered multiple terms out of office and generational shifts on major issues before they were extinguished (and even then, you can argue a lot of them are still around in some form or another).

yeah but what if they get 0 seats? did ever happend that rulling party lose all seats? at least greens pick one district and go for it.

New Brunswick Tories in 1987. They still managed to get back into power by 1999

[mgop]

Caveats about predicting the future notwithstanding, I really think people are overestimating the impact of a single election on a political party, especially one like the OLP. Even a disastrous showing (1-5 seats) would leave them with enough presence in the legislature to organize. Beyond that, and more importantly, the OLP, like most well-entrenched parties, is much more than its elected representatives. The money, institutional memory, expertise, and informal networks that animate it now will still be available to it after the election.

On a broader point, if you look at the ways political parties have died before it's been through a combination of prolonged atrophy and a major issue that split the party (or that it ended up on the wrong side of). The US Whigs, the British Liberals, the SoCreds, the Union Nationale, the pre-merger PCs - they all suffered multiple terms out of office and generational shifts on major issues before they were extinguished (and even then, you can argue a lot of them are still around in some form or another).

yeah but what if they get 0 seats? did ever happend that rulling party lose all seats? at least greens pick one district and go for it.

New Brunswick Tories in 1987. They still managed to get back into power by 1999

wow canadian politics are really weird in eastern europe if party stays below threshold, they are dead lol

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Caveats about predicting the future notwithstanding, I really think people are overestimating the impact of a single election on a political party, especially one like the OLP. Even a disastrous showing (1-5 seats) would leave them with enough presence in the legislature to organize. Beyond that, and more importantly, the OLP, like most well-entrenched parties, is much more than its elected representatives. The money, institutional memory, expertise, and informal networks that animate it now will still be available to it after the election.

On a broader point, if you look at the ways political parties have died before it's been through a combination of prolonged atrophy and a major issue that split the party (or that it ended up on the wrong side of). The US Whigs, the British Liberals, the SoCreds, the Union Nationale, the pre-merger PCs - they all suffered multiple terms out of office and generational shifts on major issues before they were extinguished (and even then, you can argue a lot of them are still around in some form or another).

yeah but what if they get 0 seats? did ever happend that rulling party lose all seats? at least greens pick one district and go for it.

New Brunswick Tories in 1987. They still managed to get back into power by 1999

Yeah but there were no other parties in the legislature that time and they were still the primary opposition to the Liberals (other than the loony CoR, which fizzled after a few elections). If the Liberals are shut out, or even if they win a few seats, with the NDP taking up the mantle of the main leftist opposition (or possibly even the government, especially if the Liberals collapse even worse than predicted and given the track record of polling, especially in Canada) today could mark the day Ontario politics gets Manitoba-ized, with PCs on the right, NDP on the left, and the Liberals becoming the party of the bougie professional class and little else, which going forward maxes them out at 10 or so seats in Toronto and Ottawa.

[adma]

One thing I don’t quite understand is, if the NDP vote is too inefficient, then where is it concentrated? Because isn’t Doug Ford supposed to be competitive in SW Ontario, where the NDP’s base traditionally is?

I know that their vote share will increase by a lot in a ton of safe PC seats, at the expense of the Liberals, but there seems to be relatively few NDP blowout seats (where they win by like an unnecessary 30 points or something), unlike with the PC’s. That doesn’t quite seem to add up, but maybe I’m just being dumb..

I'm supposing that the increased PC/NDP spread in these final polls will more "ergonomically" justify the seat spread.

[ON Progressive]

100% agree.  People should not justify support for the PCs by deluding themselves that adults in the room like Vic Fedeli or Christine Elliott will take charge.  Every candidate elected in every riding is the local apologist for Doug Ford.

Similarly, I don't get why people sometimes say "I don't like (insert party leader) but I'm voting for the local candidate of my party!"

Canada's party discipline is higher than any other democracy in the world, so any elected parliament member (federal or provincial) is pretty much just a rubber stamp for the party leader's agenda.