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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 92546 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #2400 on: June 07, 2018, 11:11:25 am »

Is not LIB getting to 8 seats a key threshold ? If LIB does not get to 8 seats then they will not achieve official party status and as a result if no party has a majority then it would be simpler to NDP to poach some of the LIB MPP to get to a majority.  If LIB get about 8 then it will have to be a party-to-party deal between NDP and LIB.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #2401 on: June 07, 2018, 11:21:23 am »

lol liberals are center? they funding sharia schools. thats far right even in muslim world.

What
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #2402 on: June 07, 2018, 11:33:26 am »

Here's a present

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Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
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« Reply #2403 on: June 07, 2018, 12:33:25 pm »

For anyone paying attention, Election Prediction Project's final "projection" is out: 66 PC, 49 NDP, 8 OLP, 1 GRN. Only three changes since yesterday:

Ottawa South: TCTC -> OLP
Sault Ste. Marie: TCTC -> NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood: OLP -> PC
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2404 on: June 07, 2018, 12:52:00 pm »



EKOS, aka Hatman's official prediction mapped. The takeaway methinks is the near absolute Tory sweep of the 905.
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« Reply #2405 on: June 07, 2018, 12:53:53 pm »

I mapped it too, but thanks! Smiley

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2406 on: June 07, 2018, 04:38:55 pm »

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2407 on: June 07, 2018, 04:46:19 pm »

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

I've found these two:

https://www.thestar.com/news/ontario_election.html

http://windsorstar.com/tag/2018-Ontario-Election
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2408 on: June 07, 2018, 04:47:37 pm »

Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

This one is best imo

https://globalnews.ca/news/4257183/ontario-election-results-2018/
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2409 on: June 07, 2018, 05:01:47 pm »

No result from Essex until 9:20PM, from Simcoe North and Bay of Quinte until 9:25PM and from York-Simcoe before 11:25PM due to various polling station being closed.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2410 on: June 07, 2018, 05:06:25 pm »

No result from Essex until 9:20PM, from Simcoe North and Bay of Quinte until 9:25PM and from York-Simcoe before 11:25PM due to various polling station being closed.

Annoying, but Bay of Quinte is the only interesting one of this batch.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2411 on: June 07, 2018, 05:26:34 pm »


Which website has the best results map? I'm not that impressed with CBC's.

This one is best imo

https://globalnews.ca/news/4257183/ontario-election-results-2018/

Thank you
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #2412 on: June 07, 2018, 05:34:28 pm »

I will confess, a big part of my interest in this race is because of my own personal quest for bragging rights. My best friends at college lives in Mississauga, and I stayed at his house for Canada 150 last year, and we went into Toronto, got well and smashed, and then I started spouting off in the streets about how “Horwath will be Premier!” And when Doug Ford won the PC leadership, I suggested to him there could be room for the NDP to sneak up the middle between an unpopular Ford and hated Wynne, and he immediately shut me down, saying there was absolutely 0 chance, then when I tried to explain my rationale, he got mad at me for “acting like I knew [his] province better than [him].” So if the NDP does pull it off tonight, in addition to seeing a victory for a party very close to my own ideology, I’ll get to gloat too Tongue

Btw, the last batch of polls has seemed like a herding... very well may be wishful thinking, but I’m not buying the sudden last-minute PC swings, especially when other polls had the NDP on the rise in the last few days and Abacus’ last poll had the NDP up 4. Between that, Kenatagate, and what I suspect will be the deathbed conversion of many would-be Liberal voters to the NDP to stop Ford, I’m still predicting a narrow NDP win, but it’s gonna be a long night and it may be a few days before things shake out fully.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #2413 on: June 07, 2018, 06:07:33 pm »

I will confess, a big part of my interest in this race is because of my own personal quest for bragging rights. My best friends at college lives in Mississauga, and I stayed at his house for Canada 150 last year, and we went into Toronto, got well and smashed, and then I started spouting off in the streets about how “Horwath will be Premier!” And when Doug Ford won the PC leadership, I suggested to him there could be room for the NDP to sneak up the middle between an unpopular Ford and hated Wynne, and he immediately shut me down, saying there was absolutely 0 chance, then when I tried to explain my rationale, he got mad at me for “acting like I knew [his] province better than [him].” So if the NDP does pull it off tonight, in addition to seeing a victory for a party very close to my own ideology, I’ll get to gloat too Tongue

Btw, the last batch of polls has seemed like a herding... very well may be wishful thinking, but I’m not buying the sudden last-minute PC swings, especially when other polls had the NDP on the rise in the last few days and Abacus’ last poll had the NDP up 4. Between that, Kenatagate, and what I suspect will be the deathbed conversion of many would-be Liberal voters to the NDP to stop Ford, I’m still predicting a narrow NDP win, but it’s gonna be a long night and it may be a few days before things shake out fully.

You need to do something more wholesome when drunk... Like calling you ex.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2414 on: June 07, 2018, 06:11:28 pm »

I've come to think of said "dreary DATA driven projections" as a little like the psephological equivalent of talking GPS: it may "get you there" (seemingly), but it's no match for well-tuned navigational skills--or what London taxi operators call "The Knowledge".  It's an easy crutch; that's it.

Yes. And the thing is, when an election is fluid as this (especially given the possibility of all sorts of freakish results on low poll shares...) if the data-driven projections are right it won't be because of their inherent accuracy, but luck...
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #2415 on: June 07, 2018, 06:40:16 pm »

I will confess, a big part of my interest in this race is because of my own personal quest for bragging rights. My best friends at college lives in Mississauga, and I stayed at his house for Canada 150 last year, and we went into Toronto, got well and smashed, and then I started spouting off in the streets about how “Horwath will be Premier!” And when Doug Ford won the PC leadership, I suggested to him there could be room for the NDP to sneak up the middle between an unpopular Ford and hated Wynne, and he immediately shut me down, saying there was absolutely 0 chance, then when I tried to explain my rationale, he got mad at me for “acting like I knew [his] province better than [him].” So if the NDP does pull it off tonight, in addition to seeing a victory for a party very close to my own ideology, I’ll get to gloat too Tongue

Btw, the last batch of polls has seemed like a herding... very well may be wishful thinking, but I’m not buying the sudden last-minute PC swings, especially when other polls had the NDP on the rise in the last few days and Abacus’ last poll had the NDP up 4. Between that, Kenatagate, and what I suspect will be the deathbed conversion of many would-be Liberal voters to the NDP to stop Ford, I’m still predicting a narrow NDP win, but it’s gonna be a long night and it may be a few days before things shake out fully.

You need to do something more wholesome when drunk... Like calling you ex.

Yeah it was a very nerdy drunk thing to do lol, but don't worry I've done that as well Smiley
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Representative MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #2416 on: June 07, 2018, 06:49:15 pm »

Is CBC (or some other channel) going to do coverage tonight? Gonna need a stream if that's the case.
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Fremont Speaker ON Progressive
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« Reply #2417 on: June 07, 2018, 07:02:21 pm »

Is CBC (or some other channel) going to do coverage tonight? Gonna need a stream if that's the case.

CBC has a Youtube stream, I don't know if it'll work in the US though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY14V2CgDNI
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WULFRIC PROJECTION:

U.S. House District 6
Democratic Primary Runoff

CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Kevin Abel
26,735   53.9%   

Lucy McBath
22,883   46.1   
49,618 votes, 89% reporting (184 of 207 precincts)

Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2418 on: June 07, 2018, 07:03:24 pm »

Is CBC (or some other channel) going to do coverage tonight? Gonna need a stream if that's the case.

CBC has a Youtube stream, I don't know if it'll work in the US though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY14V2CgDNI

The link works for me in DC.

Also, if you happen to be close to the border you can catch canadian broadcasting on the TV apparently.
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Representative MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #2419 on: June 07, 2018, 07:22:32 pm »

Is CBC (or some other channel) going to do coverage tonight? Gonna need a stream if that's the case.

CBC has a Youtube stream, I don't know if it'll work in the US though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY14V2CgDNI

The link works for me in DC.

Also, if you happen to be close to the border you can catch canadian broadcasting on the TV apparently.
I'm not in that part of Maine.
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