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adma
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« Reply #25 on: October 10, 2017, 12:30:19 am »
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That assumes most voters are aware of it. I think many just assume the Greens are a left wing environmentalist party even if untrue in Ontario. If he is not in the debate he will get very little scrutiny meaning he might get many votes who don't agree with his views.

Though if one parses past Guelph results, there's definitely a distinction btw/ where the Greens do better and where the NDP does better--in the former case, a lot of gentrified downtown and university-zone neighbourhoods; and in the latter case, the apartment/townhouse-defined eastern and western suburbs.  (Its right-wing echo would be where the Tories did better and where Reform did better in the 90s)
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« Reply #26 on: October 10, 2017, 09:04:50 am »
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Deb Matthews and Liz Sandals are not running for re-election so huge blows as those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings, but could be vulnerable based on current polling.  London North Centre could for any the three parties realistically and a key will be turnout amongst university students.  Strong turnout should benefit Liberals or NDP, while weak turnout PCs.  Guelph gets more interesting as Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so maybe he will win.  Also with Tory support struggling to crack the 30% mark there, a three way split on the left makes it easier for them to win.  Will be interesting to see how many more pack it in.  Much as you saw with Harper in 2015, usually this is a bad sign that many don't like the party's chances.  The one exception where you had a lot of resignations but the party still won again was the BC Liberals in 2013, then again at the time of the resignations they were 20 points behind in the polls.

Schreiner's position on the selling of marijuana has been quite unpopular on the left, particularly amongst the Green party core.  I can't see him being a factor with those kinds of positions.

He ran in Guelph in 2014 also and got nearly 20% there (and almost knocked the PCs into third, did knock the NDP into fourth) then, so clearly he is "a factor," even if he doesn't win.

I don't often consider candidates who receive less than 20% of the vote to be a "factor".  Admittedly, what each one of us considers to be "a factor" is a subjective thing. 

When it's the Greens 20% counts as a factor. It's enough to start generating weird results.
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« Reply #27 on: October 10, 2017, 09:14:09 am »
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Hilarious that the 4th place NDP won more polls in Guelph than the 2nd place Tories. The Tories ran up a lot of 2nd place finishes in the suburbs, but finished in 4th in the city's core. 
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« Reply #28 on: October 10, 2017, 06:27:47 pm »
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In terms of the ridings with large universities this is how I see it.  Certainly in the US the Democrats tend to do considerably better than surrounding areas and often counties with large universities are liberal islands in a sea of red (GOP).  In the UK, constituencies with major universities saw the biggest jump in Labour support and in many of those Conservative support actually fell (In most of the UK, Conservative support went up, just less than Labour did), but in Canada seems less the case although Kingston and the Islands and Guelph both stayed Liberal in 2011 despite their poor showing nationally and in Ontario and despite the fact the surrounding rural ridings went massively Conservative.  In Toronto and Ottawa the student population is spread out over too many ridings so likely minimal impact although University-Rosedale should be an NDP-Liberal fight with PCs playing spoiler (if Rosedale goes Liberal that helps them whereas if it goes PC, not enough to win the riding but will help the NDP since it will hurt the Liberals more).  Likewise Thunder Bay will be do people vote on party (NDP) or candidate (Liberal) and Windsor should go NDP while NDP have the advantage in Sudbury.

McMaster University is in Hamilton West-Dundas-Ancaster.  Likely a PC-Liberal race with NDP if strong helping the PCs win.  Ted McMeekin is running here and he is quite locally popular as well as more favourable for the Liberals than old boundaries as the rural parts were transferred to Flamborough-Glanbrook which I expect to go PC.

Brock University - Interestingly enough it is located in Niagara Centre even though it is in St. Catherines which is mostly in the riding of St. Catherines.  Niagara Centre should stay NDP although if the PCs get around 45% and NDP stays stuck at 20% a PC pick up is possible but not likely.  St. Catherines will come down to do people vote on candidate (Liberal as Jim Bradley is well liked) or party (PC as this generally is slightly more PC than the province as a whole).

Waterloo and Wilfred Laurier - Both are in Waterloo which will probably stay NDP as Catherine Fife is well liked, but a Liberal pick up if they emerge as the progressive alternative to the PCs is possible while PC too if there are strong splits.

University of Guelph - Guelph leans Liberal, but possible although unlikely for an NDP win.  Greens could win since despite Schreiber being not too progressive it does seem in recent federal and provincial elections, people seem to like the idea of a Green seat so they often come close or win in their strongest.  A PC win also possible if you have really strong splits but unlike 1999 the riding is Guelph instead of Guelph-Wellington so without the rural portion where the PCs run up the numbers it will be tougher to win.  Also millennials tilt a lot more heavily in the progressive direction than do Generation X voters and in the 90s it was GenXers at university now it is millennials.

UWO - This is in London North Centre so if the Liberals win anything south of Kitchener (if things turn badly they might not win anything west of the Humber River) it would be this one.  NDP holds the two neighbouring ridings so no surprise if they pick this one up.  PCs also could if there are strong splits as usually their support is about 5-10% below what they are province wide so if at only 38%, then no they won't win this, but if at 44% then definitely possible.

Queens University - Kingston and the Islands used to go PC but that was back during the Red Tory era and hasn't since, so Liberals favoured.  NDP win possible but only if the Liberals implode and fall to third.  PC win unlikely, but they do have a former mayor which should add a few points so with a perfect split possible but not likely.  Also all the parts of Kingston north of the 401 are now in Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston also making it harder for a PC win as they tended to do better north of the 401 than south of it. 

That being said, I don't think either Wynne or Howarth has the same pull as say Trudeau, Corbyn, Sanders, or Obama amongst younger voters.  Also it's summer so the student impact might be less as many will be back home although the faculty will still be there and I expect most of them to go Liberal.  In addition turnout will probably be lower than last federal election which helps the PCs as well as usually in change elections it tends to be those angry at the government rather than happy who are more motivated to show up.
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« Reply #29 on: October 13, 2017, 02:45:33 pm »
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I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.
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« Reply #30 on: October 13, 2017, 04:50:46 pm »
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I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

Doubt it but you never know.  Certainly a lot of the social conservatives feel he is a flip flopper, but also to win in Ontario you have to be fairly moderate which Brown is trying to do.  There are some for whatever reason who believe you can run on an unabashedly right wing platform and win in Ontario which the last few campaigns have proven false.  Mike Harris was quite right although economically not socially, but that was the 90s and attitudes have shifted since then.
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« Reply #31 on: October 13, 2017, 08:09:17 pm »
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I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

This would not surprise me, based on rumours I heard about his office from when he was an MP. Rumours didn't involve doing anything to anyone, but having "competitions" with interns.
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« Reply #32 on: October 14, 2017, 04:10:37 am »
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Rumours didn't involve doing anything to anyone, but having "competitions" with interns.

... that is appalling.

Honestly, though, I fear he'll get in on the 'throw the bums out' ticket.
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« Reply #33 on: October 14, 2017, 09:55:23 pm »
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Rumours didn't involve doing anything to anyone, but having "competitions" with interns.

... that is appalling.

Honestly, though, I fear he'll get in on the 'throw the bums out' ticket.

He is a bachelor and I think in today's world as long as it was consensual few will really care.  Only if non-consensual would it matter and we would probably have heard about it by now.

As for him winning, the Liberals have been in power for 15 years, Wynne's approval rating is under 20% so there is a strong desire for change.  Also Ontario has a long history of alteration whereby which party is in power at Queens Park is the opposite as in Ottawa.  Last provincial election we still had a Conservative government federally whereas now we have a Liberal one.  The NDP could ride the desire for change, but they seem to be largely invisible as well as the PC's have a much stronger base so they start out before picking up any swing voters at a much higher level thus making their path to power easier.  While Brown is not exactly that strong, he has done a good job at staying away from the hard right stuff that has sank the party in past elections so he is definitely favoured to win but far from certain.  In addition the Liberals are running to the left on an NDP like platform ($15/hour minimum wage, free prescription drugs for under 25, free tuition for low income families, rent controls) so if you want change of players not policy then yes NDP is where you go, but want a change in both, then it is the PC's.  The only big difference is the NDP wants to buy back the shares sold for Hydro One, but even though almost 80% opposed the sale of Hydro One, buying it back is a fairly low priority never mind would probably drive the debt up too.
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« Reply #34 on: October 15, 2017, 05:05:45 am »
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Consensual or not, a boss organizing 'competitions' (presumably of a sexual nature, given the preceding posts) is a platinum-level hostile workplace allegation. Who would want to work for such a boss, nevermind elect him Premier?
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« Reply #35 on: October 15, 2017, 09:05:52 am »
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Just a rumour of course, told to me by 1 person 10 years ago... It shocked my sensibilities at the time, but one does hear a lot of rumours in this town, and who knows how many of them are true.
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« Reply #36 on: October 15, 2017, 09:03:25 pm »
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Hilarious that the 4th place NDP won more polls in Guelph than the 2nd place Tories. The Tories ran up a lot of 2nd place finishes in the suburbs, but finished in 4th in the city's core. 

Illustrate with maps!

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« Reply #37 on: October 16, 2017, 06:23:29 am »
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Rumours didn't involve doing anything to anyone, but having "competitions" with interns.

... that is appalling.

Honestly, though, I fear he'll get in on the 'throw the bums out' ticket.

He is a bachelor and I think in today's world as long as it was consensual few will really care.  Only if non-consensual would it matter and we would probably have heard about it by now.

As for him winning, the Liberals have been in power for 15 years, Wynne's approval rating is under 20% so there is a strong desire for change.  Also Ontario has a long history of alteration whereby which party is in power at Queens Park is the opposite as in Ottawa.  Last provincial election we still had a Conservative government federally whereas now we have a Liberal one.  The NDP could ride the desire for change, but they seem to be largely invisible as well as the PC's have a much stronger base so they start out before picking up any swing voters at a much higher level thus making their path to power easier.  While Brown is not exactly that strong, he has done a good job at staying away from the hard right stuff that has sank the party in past elections so he is definitely favoured to win but far from certain.  In addition the Liberals are running to the left on an NDP like platform ($15/hour minimum wage, free prescription drugs for under 25, free tuition for low income families, rent controls) so if you want change of players not policy then yes NDP is where you go, but want a change in both, then it is the PC's.  The only big difference is the NDP wants to buy back the shares sold for Hydro One, but even though almost 80% opposed the sale of Hydro One, buying it back is a fairly low priority never mind would probably drive the debt up too.


Correction, the Ontario Liberals are NOT running on the left of the NDP, they are trying to be the NDP and a moderate form of them:
- $15 minimum wage, both support but the NDP is calling for bigger labour reforms Like 3 wks vacation, eliminating min.wage exemptions, moving to eliminate long-term "contract" workers.
- Pharmacare; Liberals is limited to 25 under (arguably those who need it the least) the NDP is a Universal Pharmacare
- Eliminate the Interest of Student loans for all students; The Liberal plan needs to be called out, its a Grant, not free. It caps out.

There are also differences of Transit funding, and as you mentioned Hydro, and if you read the by-back plan its full costed.
I'm being picky, but your point is solid. Running like the NDP helped them win in 2014. The NDP have to come at this like "You like the Liberal direction, but not the part, vote us we will continue and go ever farther" etc, etc. What will really help the NDP is if the Liberals are found guilty in either of the criminal cases going on now.
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« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2017, 02:01:07 pm »
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No doubt NDP and Liberals have differences but until you look into the details they seem similar or at least moving in the same direction.  I think the real danger is some on the left are so sick of the Liberals so they will vote NDP while others are so terrified of the Tories they will vote Liberal to keep the Tories out.  The PCs real advantage is so far at least they don't seem to be scaring away the Blue Liberals and Red Tories and when you have those two on side you have 40% meaning unless either the Liberals or NDP completely implode you have a PC government.  The NDP has a core base of 15% while PCs are around 30% so essentially if the Liberals implode you need over 2/3 to go NDP to push them ahead.  Certainly possible but not easy.  The one thing the NDP does have in their favour is a whole generation of Ontarioans either weren't born or too young to remember the Rae years at the same time those old enough to remember are more likely to vote.  While an NDP win is what they would like, I think the odds are fairly slim although to be fair Howarth is in a better position that Notley was 8 months before the Alberta election so surprises can happen.  The more realistic possibilities for the NDP are as follows:

1.  Liberals get reduced to a minority so the NDP holds the balance of power
2.  PCs win a majority, NDP comes in second meaning with no Trudeau like person in the wings waiting for the Liberals, the NDP will probably form government once people tire of the PCs.

A third possibility but actually I think would be bad for the NDP is the PCs win a minority.  There will be a lot of pressure for them to join up with the Liberals to stop the PCs, but considering how unpopular the Liberals are, this will just tie them to the Liberals and likely result in a PC landslide the following election.
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« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2017, 02:15:06 pm »
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It's Forum, but looking at this Wynne is going to need a record comeback if this is true to win in 2018  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2795/sudbury-trial-october-2017/ .  The only two instances I can think of where a party was this far behind in the polls with just over 7 months to go and pulled off a victory was Alberta in 1993 and BC in 2013.  I've seen opposition parties further behind and win so for those on the NDP side that might be the one solace as the NDP in Alberta in 2015, the PCs in New Brunswick in 1999, and NDP in Ontario in 1990 were about as far back or further but that is all I can think of off the top of my head.  Also note more recently Brian Pallister in Manitoba had similar numbers and won a massive majority so PCs definitely heavily favoured.
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2017, 08:33:38 pm »
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The Ottawa Centre NDP nomination was today, and it was a very hotly contested race. I guess people have the delusion (we can all hope!) we will win the seat back? I got called / texted constantly about it because the NDP has the wrong address for me for some reason (I have lived in Ottawa South for 3 years now).

Anyway, it was a big surprise; the most left wing candidate won (Joel Harden), who is a Leap Manifesto supporter. He defeated a sitting public school trustee and another candidate endorsed by Ed Broadbent (and a fourth candidate). He won on the third ballot. How often does that happen?

The results were released too (of the first 2 rounds) which is rare for NDP nomination races, but it looks like the amount of time it took to run all three rounds meant that people who had other things to do and weren't hard core activists left and didn't vote in the final round. It would've made the difference.

People are fussing that picking the most left wing candidate will hurt the party's chances in the riding, but I don't think it will matter much; it would be a hard hill to climb for anyone, and maybe someone who can stand out has a better chance of winning the riding. At the end of the day the election will be a referendum on Yasir Naqvi and the provincial government and not about who the NDP candidate is. If enough people want to give Naqvi the boot, it will be the NDP who wins the seat.
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« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2017, 09:19:06 pm »
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The Ottawa Centre NDP nomination was today, and it was a very hotly contested race. I guess people have the delusion (we can all hope!) we will win the seat back? I got called / texted constantly about it because the NDP has the wrong address for me for some reason (I have lived in Ottawa South for 3 years now).

Anyway, it was a big surprise; the most left wing candidate won (Joel Harden), who is a Leap Manifesto supporter. He defeated a sitting public school trustee and another candidate endorsed by Ed Broadbent (and a fourth candidate). He won on the third ballot. How often does that happen?

The results were released too (of the first 2 rounds) which is rare for NDP nomination races, but it looks like the amount of time it took to run all three rounds meant that people who had other things to do and weren't hard core activists left and didn't vote in the final round. It would've made the difference.

People are fussing that picking the most left wing candidate will hurt the party's chances in the riding, but I don't think it will matter much; it would be a hard hill to climb for anyone, and maybe someone who can stand out has a better chance of winning the riding. At the end of the day the election will be a referendum on Yasir Naqvi and the provincial government and not about who the NDP candidate is. If enough people want to give Naqvi the boot, it will be the NDP who wins the seat.

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.
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« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2017, 12:44:00 am »
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Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...
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« Reply #43 on: October 30, 2017, 10:23:32 am »
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Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 
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« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2017, 11:59:29 am »
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So many people in Ottawa Centre vote "strategically" to stop the Tories. I worked on the 2011 provincial campaign there, and this was something we kept hearing from people. We spent almost as much money as the Liberals, and killed them in the sign war, but they won by a big result. It was quite depressing. But Naqvi is a very popular MPP, so unseating him will be near impossible. Sure, the Liberals will be focusing on other races, but they don't need to compete as strongly as the NDP to keep the riding.

I have met Tories who vote NDP in Ottawa Centre though, so that is definitely a thing. But I can't see the Tories doing well, the demographics don't fit well for them anymore.

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« Reply #45 on: October 30, 2017, 12:11:28 pm »
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So many people in Ottawa Centre vote "strategically" to stop the Tories. I worked on the 2007 provincial campaign there, and this was something we kept hearing from people. We spent almost as much money as the Liberals, and killed them in the sign war, but they won by a big result. It was quite depressing. But Naqvi is a very popular MPP, so unseating him will be near impossible. Sure, the Liberals will be focusing on other races, but they don't need to compete as strongly as the NDP to keep the riding.

I have met Tories who vote NDP in Ottawa Centre though, so that is definitely a thing. But I can't see the Tories doing well, the demographics don't fit well for them anymore.

Agree the Tories won't do well in Ottawa Centre, but its a close enough race that if enough of them vote strategically or if the Liberals lose some Blue Liberals to the PCs it could tip things in favour of the NDP.  Otherwise Tories could play the role of the spoiler, not actually win.  As for strategic voting, Ottawa Centre has never been favourable to the Tories nor has even Ottawa-Vanier.  Those two ridings are not winneable even under the best scenario.  Even Ottawa South is a stretch and only in a say a 90 seat landslide might they be able to flip that one.  Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean are probably more competitive while Glengarry-Prescott-Russell I think could flip.  Nepean, Kanata-Carleton, and maybe even Carleton are winneable by the Liberals in the right circumstances like federally, but with all the baggage Wynne has cannot see the OLP winning those two next time around.  Now if the PCs win next year and mess up badly, maybe in 2022 they might be winneable for the Liberals. 
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« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2017, 12:39:36 pm »
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Obviously it made no sense to vote strategically for the Liberals, especially coming off the 2011 (it was the 2011 provincial election, not 2007, how soon I forget these things) federal election where the Liberals finished third. People were duped, hook line and sinker.
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« Reply #47 on: October 30, 2017, 04:20:29 pm »
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Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.
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« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2017, 06:40:20 pm »
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Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #49 on: October 31, 2017, 05:12:50 am »
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Obviously it made no sense to vote strategically for the Liberals, especially coming off the 2011 (it was the 2011 provincial election, not 2007, how soon I forget these things) federal election where the Liberals finished third. People were duped, hook line and sinker.

Yup. Sadly voters don't look that up. In 2004, half a dozen Tory MP's in BC and Saskatchewan owed their jobs to people voting Liberal to "Stop Harper" where the NDP was the most credible competition to the Tories Tongue
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