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Author Topic: Ontario 2018 election  (Read 198872 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #25 on: January 05, 2018, 05:29:19 PM »
« edited: January 05, 2018, 06:16:00 PM by mileslunn »

The fallout over the minimum wage hike is playing right into Wynne's hands right now. This might be the hail Mary they need to save their chances in the election.

They could've gone with a more reasonable modest increase in the minimum wage, which would not have rocked the boat, but they went with a very large increase, which has caused backlash from the business community.

Increasing the minimum wage is a very popular position, albeit very polarising. Having the backlash dominate the headlines will surely help the Liberals in their attempt to galvanize the progressive vote.

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

Definitely could help them.  The only problem is none of the parties plan to roll it back and the NDP would raise it to $15/hour while the PCs would but over 4 years.  It still might save them, but I think they were hoping to trip the PCs up in having them actually reverse it which hasn't happened.  Will be interesting to see what the next round of polls show.  If multiple polls show them closing the gap then good sign they could comeback.  But as we saw when first announced and they got a bump but fell back, that assumes other news doesn't come in the way.

On a personal level, it should be phased in over a longer period which is what the NDP is doing here in BC.  I have a feeling that if the Liberals were don't so badly in the polls they wouldn't have done this so it does smack of opportunism, but for those who don't follow politics closely they might see it differently.  Also perhaps having a higher minimum wage in the GTA vs. rest of Ontario would make sense as in small town Ontario you can live alright on $15/hour but in Toronto even that is not enough.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #26 on: January 07, 2018, 04:30:55 PM »

Also poverty line is do you use absolute or relative as I noticed when looking at poverty rates in various countries vs. average incomes seems a strong discrepancy.  If we used our poverty line, about 80-90% of the world's population would live in poverty and in many OECD countries such as Greece and Poland it would be over 50%.  Off course there is the cost of living too and Canada is a very expensive country to live in, especially in the large cities.  In the fact we are a harsh climate makes it more difficult to live on a low income than say in a warmer place.  Relative poverty line is more a way to measure income inequality levels as if it is high that means high levels of inequality while low means more equal.

As for minimum wage, most economists say it should be a certain percentage of the average wage.  Most centrist economists say it should be around 45% to 50% of the average wage so in Ontario that would be about $12 to $13/hour while progressive economists like CCPA say it should be 60% of the average wage which is around $15/hour.  In US, federally at least although some states and cities have set them higher, it is only 30% of the average wage so you have a huge under class, while in France it is 70% of the average wage and you've had persistent double digit unemployment there so probably it should fall somewhere in between those two extremes, but where is a question.  Interestingly enough many countries in Europe including the Nordic Countries have no minimum wage and instead they are decided through sectoral bargaining which has worked quite well there, but not sure that could easily be implemented in Ontario as in the Nordic Countries close to 70% of the workforce is unionized and no union would agree to anything less than a living wage and the threat of unionization forces other firms to pay those wages, but with unionization in the high 20s, probably wouldn't work here.  UK had no minimum wage until 1998 and it worked fine when unionization was over 50% but became very problematic in the 90s thus why the Blair government brought one in and even the current Conservative government is raising it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #27 on: January 11, 2018, 07:38:31 PM »

Probably a smart move as Mushkegowuk-James Bay will go NDP no matter what whereas Timmins leans NDP but the PCs did reasonably well there so having an incumbent run there helps seal the deal.  As hatman mentioned in another topic, in Northern Ontario urban areas tend to be less left wing than rural areas in Northern Ontario, sort of the opposite of Southern Ontario.  Sudbury and Thunder Bay usually go Liberal, Sault Ste. Marie seems to either go Liberal or PC with one usually getting clobbered although sometimes NDP, but not a lot of NDP-Liberal swing voters and North Bay is more PC provincially, Liberal federally.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #28 on: January 12, 2018, 03:00:39 PM »

I think Timmins and Kenora-Rainy River are both favoured to stay NDP, nonetheless the PCs will undoubtedly target both and will probably perform better than usual, but I will still venture to guess they will fall short, but you never know and often Northern Ontario's voting patterns in terms of swings don't mirror that of Southern Ontario. 

In terms of northern ridings I see the following at the moment.

Liberals:  They are unlikely win anything they don't have now.  Sudbury they will probably lose although might hold.  Thunder-Atikokan too close to call while Thunder Bay-Superior North is probably the only one they have a greater than even chance of holding, but even that is not a sure thing.

PCs:  Will definitely hold Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka.  Should hold Sault Ste. Marie but still somewhat vulnerable there.  Unlikely to pick up anything else, but Timmins, Kenora-Rainy River, and Sudbury are all possibilities, but each uphill battles.  The remaining ones are off limits.

NDP:  Asides from Timmins and Kenora-Rainy River, should easily hold all the others and will probably hold those two as well.  Excellent chance at picking up Sudbury, possible pick up of Thunder Bay-Atikokan, while Thunder Bay-Superior North and Sault Ste. Marie will be more challenging but still winneable.  Nipissing and Parry Sound-Muskoka are the only two they definitely won't win.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #29 on: January 12, 2018, 06:41:33 PM »

The only areas where the NDP might lose some votes is Southwestern Ontario and the Niagara Peninsula where probably some angry at the Liberals who couldn't vote PC then voted NDP.  But in Northern Ontario I don't think you have to worry too much about that.  Also with 46% of the popular vote, that would mean the Liberals would have to implode completely and all of that transfer over to the PCs so even if Liberals drop to single digits and 2/3 of it flows to the PCs, the NDP still comes out ahead.

Of the NDP ridings the only ones I could see the PCs having a decent shot at are Oshawa, Niagara Falls, Waterloo, and London West and maybe Brampton East if strong splits although I think that would go Liberal before going PC.  Niagara Centre is somewhat vulnerable since it is open but still think the NDP should hold that one.  Essex has gone Tory federally, but the NDP MPP has enough personal popularity they should be fine there.  And even the one's mentioned the NDP still has at least a 50% chance in every riding they currently hold.  Never mind with Howarth tacking leftward, I could see her picking up some lost Toronto ones like Davenport, Beaches-East York and York South-Weston.  While London North Centre I could see going NDP.  Brantford-Brant leans PC, but would go NDP before Liberal.  Likewise if the PCs get under 40% and NDP hits the 30% mark, Chatham-Kent-Leamington and Sarnia-Lambton are possibilities, but if the PCs are over 40%, they are likely close to 50% in those so won't flip then.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #30 on: January 12, 2018, 08:29:43 PM »

Campaign research is the first poll out this year and it seems minimum wage debate is having no impact either way.  Brackets gives differences from December.

PC 35% (+1)
Lib 34% (-1)
NDP 23% (+1)

So all changes within the statistical margin of error.  Strong age divide with Liberals well ahead amongst those under 45, but PCs well ahead amongst those over 45 so wonder if we will see a similar split in age lines like the last British election.  On minimum wage, 60% support while 31% oppose however if asking whether it would make one more or less likely to vote Liberal 21% say more likely, 27% said less likely and 47% said neither more or less likely.

Since other polls have shown more favourable numbers for the PCs and this is an online poll, it will be interesting to see what they say.  If they show no change, then that probably means the PCs are in front in and around the 40% mark, Liberals in second in the low 30s and NDP in third in low to mid 20s.  In some ways the PCs promising to keep the $14/hour minimum wage and simply slow the increase over 4 years blunts a lot of the potential attacks.  The Liberals when they did this, likely did so as a trap for the PCs thus the reason for a massive increase hoping the PCs would promise to cut it and thus could use that against them.  They've tried to bait Brown on many issues and so far hasn't taken the bait.  Opposite of Tim Hudak who you didn't need to bait, you just had to let him talk to see their numbers go down.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2018, 01:53:18 PM »

that should've been 160 NDP cases, as they called me, but I missed the call! Sad

I am sure some Liberals and PCs also missed there's, didn't answer, or declined Smiley  My understanding on a more serious note is response rate I believe for polling is only 1 for every 8 calls made.  Off course pollsters weight things by demographics so if certain groups are under represented it accounts for this.  As for Campaign research, I get the impression it is the same people being asked each month so good way to track changes, but bad way to get an accurate sample.  Usually you survey different people realizing 1 in every 20 polls will be a rogue one thus that way if one is a rogue, the next one won't be whereas if you survey the same people you can continue to get the wrong response.  The USC/Dornsife Daybreak poll in the LA times was a classical example of this that showed Trump ahead when everyone showed him behind.  And note Trump did not win the popular vote so if polls were correct they would have shown him 2 points behind Clinton.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #32 on: January 17, 2018, 04:45:38 PM »

Whichever poll you believe it seems the minimum wage hike is popular, but its not moving any voters, otherwise that suggests to me people like it but it is not the number one issue.  As for forum, their topline numbers seem quite plausible, but the seat count I question.  Since we rarely have uniform swings you need a much larger sample to get an accurate seat count.  In the UK they usually survey 20,000 people for their exit polls and use those to predict the actual number of seats (note they were quite close last time, 314 conservatives vs. 317 actual; 266 labour vs. 262 actual, and 14 Liberal Democrats vs. 12 actual), but with 1,000 that is large enough to be able to predict what type of government will be formed and percentages, but not to actually predict how the seats will fall.

In downtown Toronto, the PCs rarely fall below 10%, but they rarely go much higher as most are decidedly progressive and swing between the NDP and Liberals.  In the 905 belt you tend to get much bigger swings than you do province wide as that is where you have a lot of Blue Liberals/Red Tories.  In Rural Ontario, the PCs in most ridings have 40% locked up no matter what, but rarely go above the mid 50s and 60% seems to be their ceiling so usually when the PCs win their support in the 905 belt is similar to rural Ontario whereas when they lose the PCs still hold up much better in rural Ontario than they do in the 905 belt.  In Northern Ontario, PC support in most ridings can range from single digits to low 30s so wild swings like you saw in the Sault Ste. Marie by-election are not uncommon there, but rare in Southern Ontario.

I think a more accurate statement is the PCs would win a majority if an election were held today (assuming Forum is accurate) and the fight for opposition would be between the NDP and Liberals.  Off course things can still and likely will change before e-day.  I think the split between the NDP and Liberals will disappear depending on the ballot question.  If it is which party is best to stop the PCs or prevent a PC majority you will probably see progressives coalesce around one of the two.  If it is about changing governments, I suspect unless the PCs do something really stupid, you will see some NDP supporters flow to the PCs (I know that sounds strange, but you do have some change voters who care more about change than ideology, example in last Alberta election many Wildrose supporters swung over to the NDP late in the campaign as they looked like the best party to defeat the PCs and in Manitoba the implosion of the Liberals provincially benefited the PCs more than NDP).  Now if the PCs mess up and the NDP does really well its also plausible you could see some soft PC supporters go over to the NDP to get rid of the Liberals.  More likely you will see some strategic voting whereby perhaps some PC supporters in NDP-Liberal battles will strategically vote NDP.  While in PC-Liberal races, NDP voters vote strategically with those wanting a progressive government going Liberal and those wanting to get rid of Wynne going PC.

I think with the minimum wage, the reason the Liberals aren't moving up is when people tire of a leader, sometimes there is nothing they can do.  While we will have to see what happens on June 7th, if these numbers materialize, I think this will be a case of where Wynne should have stepped down in early 2017 and let someone else take over the reigns.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #33 on: January 19, 2018, 04:02:45 PM »

Two things.  Mainstreet has a poll out on Tuesday for Ontario.  Also has BC and Saskatchewan on Monday who both have leadership races while has Quebec and New Brunswick on Tuesday, and Alberta on Wednesday.

David Livingston, McGuinty's chief of staff was found guilty in the gas plant trial.  I suspect any gains the Liberals made over the minimum wage will be hurt from this, although I don't expect a shift of more than few points.  Nonetheless doesn't help the Liberals one bit.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #34 on: January 23, 2018, 02:49:19 AM »

Mainstreet now has the numbers out for Ontario and they are good news for the PCs, somewhat good but not great for the OLP, while bad for the NDP.  That being said of the three pollsters since the new year they all seem to agree on two parties but are off for one.  Mainstreet is the outlier for the NDP, Forum for the OLP, and Campaign research for the PCs.

43.3%
32%
17.9%
6.8%

PC's lead every region except the 416.  Have a 20+ point lead in Southwestern Ontario, South Central Ontario, and Northern Ontario (I find this one hard to believe as this usually goes NDP, but probably the toughest region to poll due to wide variations).  Have an 11 point lead in the 905, 8 point lead in Eastern Ontario, while the Liberals are 4 points ahead in the 416.

With 135 days left, I would say the PCs are definitely the prohibitive favourites and unless they screw up badly should win the most seats.  Whether they win a majority or not will depend on whether they hold these numbers which will mean a majority, but if they drop 3-5 points it might be a minority depending on splits.  Liberals will likely come in second in votes but due to distribution of votes anything from falling to third place if they underperform to a strong second seems plausible as unlike the PCs and NDP, their vote is fairly evenly spread out across the GTA, so they usually either dominate it like they did in the 2008 election, or lose almost all of it like in 2011 (note the shift in votes was not massive, but in seats it was between elections).  NDP seem to be stuck in third and need to make a move soon.  The problem I think they face is two fold.

Most NDP voters fall into one of the two categories.

1.  Progressive voters who want to keep the PCs out so at the moment at least the Liberals seem to be the stronger choice if that is one's goal.
2.  Change voters and if your goal is to unseat the Liberals, PCs seem a better vehicle at the moment.

Interestingly enough the three regions the PCs are ahead by 20+ do seem to have rather similar demographics to the areas that voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then swung over to Trump in 2016 and likewise similar to areas that traditionally voted Labour in the UK, but voted heavily in favour of Brexit. 

That being said if the PCs only get a minority, do you think the Liberals and NDP will gang up to keep them out or let them form a minority?  I would like to hear what some Liberal or NDP supporters think.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #35 on: January 23, 2018, 06:50:29 PM »

If the PCs win a minority I don't think a coalition to knock them out is automatic, possible but not a guarantee.

If the NDP comes in second, the Liberals will not agree to be junior partner as that would be signing their death warrant.

If the Liberals come in second, it will depend on a number of variables
-  If PCs get 62 seats no coalition as they will refuse to put up a speaker unless the NDP and Liberals agree to let them govern so that would make the coalition not viable.
-  If the PCs get 60-61 seats, the coalition/arrangement would be too shaky and the PCs could gain a majority just from by-election pick-ups.
- If PCs say only get 55 seats then it is more likely but not guaranteed to happen.

Actually a PC minority with a Liberal opposition is the worst possible case scenario for the NDP.  Back the PCs and anger much of the progressive base who hate them while back the Liberals and pay a big price for keeping an unpopular tired government in power.  Ontario in 1985 and BC in 2017 both involved removing long serving tired incumbents, not prolonging the power of a long serving tired incumbent.  I suspect if this happens, Wynne will probably speak to David Peterson and Bob Rae who know best about this and David Peterson, based on what he said in the 2008 one and the most recent BC one will probably advise her not to go there.  If the Liberals do this it might keep them in power longer, but will just mean a worse defeat next time and a tougher time rebuilding so better to go into opposition and focus on rebuilding.  If the Liberals and NDP decide to do this, there will be a rash of polls on what the public thinks and if the PCs surge in the polls like the Tories did in 2008, one of the two will probably blink.  So definitely could happen, but far from a guarantee.

Besides with the current numbers the PCs would probably get around 75 seats anyways.  If they are competitive in the 416, they will win seats as that means they are probably leading in Etobicoke and North York, and competitive in Scarborough since the PCs always do poorly in the old city of Toronto no matter how they do province wide.  Just for comparison Harper in 2011 got only 31% in the 416, Liberals got 35%, and NDP 30% while in the old city of Toronto, Harper only got a mere 21% so both Forum and Mainstreet show Brown with better numbers in the 416 than Harper in 2011 if correct and this holds up.  If the PCs have a 10 point lead or more in the 905 belt, they will win almost all of them.  Likewise leads elsewhere means they will hold what they have and pick up the marginal like Cambridge, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Peterborough-Kawartha, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Ottawa West-Nepean, and maybe even Orleans.  It will only be the urban ridings, Northern Ontario ridings (I am skeptical of the 24 point lead for the PCs in Northern Ontario, mind you Nanos had similar numbers but Forum shows NDP ahead) and perhaps a few like Essex, Niagara Falls, and St. Catherines where a generic candidate from each would result in a PC one, but popularity of current MPP will allow them to hold it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #36 on: January 23, 2018, 09:36:05 PM »

Speaking of Toronto...  I know we discussed this a lot around the time of the federal redistribution, but I spent some time starting at maps of west Toronto this evening, and it's going to be tough for the NDP to win either of the Trinity-Spadina successor ridings. It's almost as if they've been gerrymandered against the NDP (wasn't Olivia Chow in favour of this split?). I guess at the time it seemed as if the NDP could win both, but in most elections, I'd say they can win neither. A better split would've put Forest Hill and Rosedale together (to make a district for old money) and lump in the northern part of Trinity-Spadina with the southern part of Davenport to make a safer NDP seat. The rest of Davenport and St. Paul's could be called Oakwood or something.

Oh well, too late now. The NDP can always win back Davenport at least.

Agree both will probably go Liberal, but the NDP need to hope the PCs crack the 20% mark in both as any PC gains will come from the Liberals not NDP.  The PCs don't stand a chance at winning either but could play spoiler.  I used to live in Spadina-Fort York and its really the new condos that kill the NDP; once you get north of King Street they are still quite strong.  With University-Rosedale, it is Rosedale that kills them.  The good news is both sections of the riding (not the entire but just those two) are more centre-right than centre-left so if the PCs won most of the lakefront condo polls and most of the Rosedale polls, then the NDP will likely take the riding as the PCs will get slaughtered elsewhere and the Liberals will have a tough time finishing much ahead of the NDP elsewhere.

Looking at the 416 I see the following potential seat changes

NDP:

Definitely will hold Toronto-Danforth
Probably hold Parkdale-High Park
Davenport is most likely pick up, but York South-Weston and Beaches-East York look good.
Humber River-Black Creek, University-Rosedale, and Spadina-Fort York are more long shots but not impossible.
If the Liberals completely implode, then Toronto Centre, Etobicoke North and some of the Scarborough ones could come into play.

PCs

The most likely PC pick-ups I see are: York Centre, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley North, Willowdale, Scarborough-Agincourt, and Scarborough North (hold as they won by-election here).

Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Don Valley West, Don Valley East, and Scarborough Centre are long shots but if the PCs crack the 45% mark I could see those falling to them.

I don't think the PCs will win all of the above, but if they continue to maintain a 10 point lead and stay above 40% they should win at least a few of them.

In the 905 region

I think Oshawa (trying to hold it), Brampton East (also to hold), Brampton Centre, and Brampton North are the only realistic NDP wins unless they have a strong surge in the polls in which they will start winning in places you wouldn't expect.

For the PCs:

Low hanging fruit, otherwise pick up unless major screwup:

Milton, Burlington, Oakville North-Burlington, Newmarket-Aurora, Markham-Unionville, and Durham (off course hold Whitby, York-Simcoe and Thornhill too).

Likely pick-ups:

Oakville, King-Vaughan, Markham-Stouffville, Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, and Pickering-Uxbridge

Swings:  If Forum and Mainstreet are correct they win these but if Campaign Research then fall short.

Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Streetsville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Brampton Centre, Brampton North, Brampton South, Richmond Hill, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Ajax, and Oshawa (lose under Forum, but win under Mainstreet).

Winneable but would probably fall short at the moment - These are the type if they cross the 45% line they can win, but not in the low 40s.

Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga-Malton, Brampton East, Brampton West, Markham-Thornhill
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mileslunn
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« Reply #37 on: January 24, 2018, 01:32:59 AM »

For the ONDP, the Jagmeet Singh "spillover effect", or whether there is such a thing, is a *real* puzzle.  And if they wind up backsliding in Brampton relative to 2014 despite "their guy" in power federally, there's going to be plenty of soul-searching...

True enough.  Also there is the issue of vote splits as the NDP could win enough votes to split the vote in Brampton, but not enough to win as Brown will likely do better than Hudak here.  He has much better ties with the Indo-Canadian community than Hudak ever did.  Probably won't get over 45% in any Brampton riding and actually good chance he will get under 40% in which case if say the PCs get 37-38% in Brampton and the NDP only get in the teens, Liberals will hold them, but if the NDP gets around 25%, then likely a PC pick up.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #38 on: January 24, 2018, 09:38:52 PM »


Couldn't caucus agree on one person. Yes this is bad news for them but let's see what happens. Surprised this didn't come out earlier, but mind you with the #metoo movement lots is coming out now.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #39 on: January 24, 2018, 10:17:21 PM »

Agree he is done, but I still think the PCs could pull off a win if they can get a new leader.  Tough but not impossible.  It will do some damage but if he resigns in the next few weeks it will be old news by the election campaign.  With four campaign managers already resigning and still having not face the caucus, I don't see how he can stay on as PC leader.  He may want to but when the next batch of polls come out and show him falling, that will be it.  Yes these may be false but false or not, one should get it cleared in the court of law before running.  Due to how close the election is not enough time for this.

If the caucus were smart they would tell him in no uncertain terms they will resign en masse from the party if he doesn't quit (this how the BC Liberals got rid of Gordon Campbell back in 2010).  If he quits, I would recommend they appoint either Lisa McLeod or Vic Fedelli as leader.  Both are moderate and capable.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #40 on: January 24, 2018, 10:20:07 PM »

How likely do you think it is this will be so damaging he has no choice but to resign.  If he is leading the party over an abyss I cannot see how he can stay on.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #41 on: January 24, 2018, 11:11:27 PM »

At this point I am pretty confidence Brown will not lead the party into the election come June, any bets on whom it will be.  Some may say Christine Elliott but she is not in caucus.  My bets are either Vic Fidelli or Lisa McLeod will be the PC leader come June.  Any thoughts?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #42 on: January 24, 2018, 11:42:10 PM »

A snap leadership election will probably be best for the Tories, as they are less likely to have a terrible candidate spend a long time campaigning to terrible social conservative groups and end up defeating a moderate establishment candidate.

I actually think much like when Ignatieff was chosen (note there was a real fear the government could fall) caucus will agree on one candidate so unless someone outside caucus steps up there won't be a convention.  While this won't happen Wynne could as an olive branch agree to push the election date back to October if Brown resigns so they can choose a new leader but that is probably more wishful thinking than realistic.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #43 on: January 25, 2018, 12:43:11 AM »

At this point I am pretty confidence Brown will not lead the party into the election come June, any bets on whom it will be.  Some may say Christine Elliott but she is not in caucus.  My bets are either Vic Fidelli or Lisa McLeod will be the PC leader come June.  Any thoughts?

Kellie Leitch obviously!

Your joking, not a chance.  Pretty sure it will be someone inside the caucus.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #44 on: January 25, 2018, 01:57:53 AM »

Do you think Kathleen Wynne would be tempted to call a snap election in hope that the controversies around Brown and before the PC potently get a new leader.   

If she does this will backfire big time.  People will see it for what it is, blatant political opportunism.  Just ask Theresa May, Jim Prentice, or David Peterson how well their decision was to call an early opportunistic election and unlike Wynne, they all had big leads in the polls.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #45 on: January 25, 2018, 06:59:43 PM »

The best way for the Tories to diffuse this situation would be to pick a woman as leader. So naturally, they're going to pick Vic Fideli as leader. I guess the Tory caucus is just as dumb as its base. Oh, and remember the last Tory leader for North Bay? Worked out wonders for this province.

Probably a woman is better although Vic Fideli he is moderate and was a popular mayor.  He is not at all like Mike Harris, but certainly a female would help.  I think its early days and tough to know whether this will sink them or not.  The party has a strong organization, but they need to be united and whether the next leader can do that or not, we shall see.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #46 on: January 25, 2018, 09:59:25 PM »

The fact Vic Fideli comes from the same town as Mike Harris means nothing.  It's silly to assume that where someone comes from implies a certain platform.  Now if he advocates major cuts like Harris did and a similar platform that is a different story off course.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #47 on: January 26, 2018, 11:00:05 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2018, 12:20:45 PM by mileslunn »

FWIW, Forum had a poll out and shows little change

PC 42%
Liberal 27%
NDP 23%

22% it would make them more likely to vote PC
14% more likely to vote liberal
12% more likely to vote NDP

So while I would take this poll with a real grain of salt, it seems a lot of the PC lead was more for the party and less the person and more about getting rid of Wynne.  Now obviously depending on whom the PCs choose, these numbers could either go up or down.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #48 on: January 26, 2018, 11:37:52 AM »

Agreed that it is too early to say what the full impact will be as polls take time to react.  But I think even if the poll is off it shows the PCs still can win the election if they choose the right candidate, which is off course a big if.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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Canada


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« Reply #49 on: January 26, 2018, 12:20:30 PM »

The Forum poll has Ontario NDP support at 23% not 22%

Fixed that was a typo.
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